Shrinking waists, not pockets: Dangerous growth of weight-loss drug market

First came Ozempic and Wegovy. Now, America’s Food and Drug Administration(FDA) has approved Zepbound, a new weight loss drug from drugmaker Eli Lilly. This new generation of weight-loss drugs could help to combat the global health problem of obesity. It is well-known that obesity is a global crisis – a recent report recently revealed that 51 per cent of the population would be overweight or obese by 2035. But besides just shrinking people’s sizes, these drugs could also prop up the weight-loss sector; in fact, a report by Goldman Sachs predicts that it could become a $100 billion industry by 2030. Let’s take a closer look. New fat fighter On Wednesday, the FDA approved a new obesity drug from Eli Lilly. The drug is called tirzepatide and will be sold under the name Zepbound. People who used tirzepatide lost an average of 21.8 kg at the highest dosage and 15.4 kg on the lower dose. In some cases, it helped patients lose over 25 per cent of their body weight in trials. According to the drug maker, Zepbound is a once in a week injection and contains the same active ingredient as Lilly’s big-selling type 2 diabetes treatment Mounjaro. Zepbound will most likely be available in the US by the end of the year, and will carry a list price of about $1,060 (Rs 88,269) for a month’s supply – the cost may put it out of bounds for many people. [caption id=“attachment_13370072” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] This image provided by Eli Lilly shows packaging for their new drug Zepbound. The new version of the popular diabetes treatment Mounjaro can be sold as a weight-loss drug, the US Food and Drug Administration announced on 8 November. AP[/caption] But how will Zepbound help people fight body fat? Zepbound activates two naturally produced hormones in the body: glucagon-like peptide-1, known as GLP-1, and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide, or GIP. The combination is said to slow the emptying of the stomach, making people feel full for longer and suppressing appetite by slowing hunger signals in the brain. However, just like drugs in its category, Zepbound carries risks, including gastrointestinal issues, nausea, diarrhoea, vomiting, constipation and stomach pain. The other weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy have been found in rare cases to cause gastroparesis or stomach paralysis.

Dr John Sharretts, director of the Division of Diabetes, Lipid Disorders and Obesity in the FDA’s Centre for Drug Evaluation and Research, was quoted as telling The New York Times, “In light of increasing rates of both obesity and overweight in the United States, today’s approval addresses an unmet medical need.” The obesity fighting drugs Lilly’s Zepbound will be the newest entrant into the anti-obesity drug market with Ozempic and Wegovy from Novo Nordisk being the key players. Since its release into the market, these drugs have captured the minds of people and their sales have gone through the roof. In the beginning of November, Novo Nordisk reported that their sales had surpassed expectations in the most recent quarter and they were facing difficulties in manufacturing enough supply to keep up with skyrocketing demand. The Danish drugmaker posted a record operating profit for the third quarter, with Wegovy sales reaching $1.36 billion, up 28 per cent from the previous quarter. And seeing the sales, Novo expects double-digit sales growth in 2024 for Wegovy and Ozempic, which have the same active ingredient, semaglutide. These sales further received a boost after a study showed that Wegovy can reduce the risk of heart attack or stroke by 20 per cent in patients. [caption id=“attachment_13370052” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A pharmacist displays boxes of Ozempic, a semaglutide injection drug used for treating type 2 diabetes made by Novo Nordisk, which is being used in the fight against obesity too. File image/Reuters[/caption] Moreover, Hollywood celebrities have taken to these weight loss drugs in a big way, fuelling their success in the market; individuals around the country have been clamouring for their own doses, driving up the sales and shares of these drugs. For example, Novo’s market capitalisation has risen to $420 billion, making it Europe’s most valuable company. Lilly has seen its market value nearly double to more than $500 billion in under 18 months. “The demand exceeded the expectations any of these drug manufacturers could’ve imagined,” Amanda Velazquez, who works at Cedars-Sinai Centre for Weight Management and Metabolic Health in Los Angeles, was quoted as telling CBS News. A booming market and its impact Experts believe that with the entry of newer drugs in the anti-obesity drug market, the sector is only bound to grow. Goldman Sachs predicts that the market is primed for a massive surge over the next six years. They’re expecting the rise of weight loss drugs to power the industry to 16-fold gains by 2030. Such a gain would push its total valuation from $6 billion to as much as $100 billion. BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman agrees, saying the revenue from such drugs could reach as high as $70 billion in the US alone. Also read: Weight-loss drugs make their way into India (illegally). Why should we be wary Analysts believe that this market will only grow considering the persisting problem of obesity around the world. In the US itself, over 40 per cent of the population is obese, and that number has increased by nearly 40 per cent over two decades. [caption id=“attachment_13370092” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Obesity is a worldwide problem. Across the world, there are roughly 750 million obese people worldwide and that number is only growing each year. Image used for representational purposes/Reuters[/caption] Across the world, there are roughly 750 million obese people worldwide and that number too is only growing each year. If you take a look at these numbers, it will come as no surprise that the anti-obesity drug market will only see a growth. But as the market grows, there’s a chance that it will shrink more than just patients. Some experts note that the drugs’ prevalence could have long-term implications for food-related sectors as consumers eat less and make more nutritious choices. As Morgan Stanley’s tobacco and packaged food analyst Pamela Kaufman said: “The food, beverage and restaurant industries could see softer demand, particularly for unhealthier foods and high-fat, sweet and salty options.” This is because the people who consume these drugs have noted a reduction in calorie intake by 20 to 30 per cent daily, with most cutting back on foods high in sugar and fat, reducing their consumption of confections, sugary drinks and baked goods by as much as two-thirds. Apart from the food industry, these drugs could also take a bite out of the pharmaceutical sector. Consider this: companies dealing with drugs related to sleep apnea will see a drop, as obesity patients opt for Ozempic, Wegovy or now Zepbound. Reuters has further reported that companies selling joint replacements could also see their values slimmed. The alcohol, cigarette and gambling industry may also be affected, if anecdotal data is to be believed. The bottom line is that more effective solutions in the fight against obesity may finally be arriving. How they change our lives is yet to be seen. With inputs from agencies