 "The ‘Maha’ winner: How BJP alone has outperformed MVA in Maharashtra")
In the Maharashtra Assembly elections, the Mahayuti is up for a thumping victory, gaining a mandate for retaining power.
According to trends, the BJP has maintained its position as the state’s largest party after surpassing the 100-seat threshold.
Also, the saffron party’s tally is double that of the opposition, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), indicating how dominant it is in this election.
With only a lead in 60 seats, the MVA appears to face a huge embarrassment after an outstanding Lok Sabha performance. This has even prompted the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) to cry foul of the result .
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The ‘Maha’ winner
The Mahayuti alliance surpassed the 200 mark thanks to the BJP’s outstanding performance in the state elections.
According to the information on the Election Commission of India website at the time of writing this report, the BJP, which fielded 149 candidates, is leading in 132 seats, Shiv Sena in 49 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP in 35 seats. Two independents backed by the ruling alliance has won.
The BJP is leading not just over its Mahayuti alliance but among all the other parties that contested the election.
However, the MVA is barely holding onto 55 seats, while Congress is only gaining 19 members, which is less than half of its 44 seats from 2019. The Shiv Sena (UBT) has 18 seats, whereas the NCP (SP) has 15. From their respective seats, three independent candidates supported by the opposition alliance emerged victorious.
In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP contested 260 seats, winning 122. Together with the united Shiv Sena, the party ran for 152 seats in 2019 and won 105.
The BJP surged to power thanks to its good performance in the Vidarbha region , which is home to a sizable portion of both small- and large-scale farmers. The saffron party ran for the most seats — 47 — in the region.
An India Today report shows that the BJP is in the lead in 19 seats where it was thought to be weak and 20 of the 24 safe seats. However, the Congress is only in the lead in six of the 18 seats that were thought to be safe.
The BJP’s top leaders are Devendra Fadnavis (Nagpur South West), Sudhir Mungantiwar (Ballarpur), Kishore Jorgewar (Chandrapur), Chandrashekhar Bawankule (Kamthi), Sanjay Savkare (Bhusawal), Dr Vijaykumar Krushanrao Gavit (Nandurbhar), and Girish Mahajan (Jamner).
Also read: Maharashtra election results: Who is in the fray to be the next Maharashtra CM?
Factors that favoured the party
One of the main factors that have contributed to the BJP-led Mahayuti’s stunning win is women voters.
The Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, which was announced just days after the Lok Sabha elections, has favoured the ruling alliance. The scheme offers financial assistance of Rs 1,500 per month to over 2.4 crore women. With 4.6 crore women voters in the state, the scheme covers almost 40 per cent of them.
The alliance also focused on gaining farmers’ support by promising to procure cotton crops above the Minimum Support Price (MSP), procure soybeans under the Price Support Scheme (PSS) with moisture content tolerance of up to 15 per cent and promise a full loan waiver.
Amid uncertainty over Maratha voters over the reservation issue, the Mahayuti focused on OBC vote back that was highly alienated during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. According to reports, the BJP has cultivated the OBC voter base since the 90s with its MADHAV formula, which brought together the Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari communities.
Additionally, the BJP employed the phrases “ek hain to safe hain” and "batenge toh katenge" to win over more non-Muslim voters.
During the general elections, the BJP was blamed for compromising Maharashtra’s interests and favouring Gujarat, especially when the Foxconn-Vedanta ’s semiconductor plant and other industries’ plants moved to Gujarat. To counter this belief, the state government, invited Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum (WEF) to Mumbai and signed an MoU to make the Mumbai Metropolitan Region’s economy worth $300 billion.
Also read: Maharashtra election results: Why Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar will see no victory processions
Why it matters
The outcome marks a great reversal for the Mahayuti, especially the BJP, after the Lok Sabha debacle .
The BJP was reduced to nine Lok Sabha seats from 23 in Maharashtra, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena won seven, while Ajit Pawar’s NCP could bag just one seat. This translated to a total of 125 Assembly segments, well short of the majority mark of 145 in the House.
On the other hand, the MVA won 30 out of 28 seats in Maharashtra, 13 by the Congress, nine by the Shiv Sena (UBT), and eight by the NCP (SP). This put the opposition ahead in 153 Assembly segments.
These patterns in the Lok Sabha, however, do not seem to have carried over into the Assembly elections.
Retaining Maharashtra helps the BJP maintain its hold on power before the crucial elections in Delhi and Bihar the following year.
Additionally, the party’s victory opens the door for its chief minister to return to the state after a five-year break.
With inputs from agencies
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