Lok Sabha election results 2024: Why Ajit Pawar is looking at an uncertain future

In politics, a lot can happen in a short period of time. In the case of Ajit Pawar, this adage seems very true.

From a high of becoming deputy chief minister of Maharashtra in July 2023 after engineering a split in his uncle Sharad Pawar’s party, now Ajit Pawar stares at an uncertain future owing to his faction’s poor performance at the recently-concluded Lok Sabha elections.

And just three days after his party’s poor performance at the Lok Sabha elections, now comes the news that he could be losing some of his MLAs to his uncle, a claim he has denied vehemently.

A poor show at the polls

With the support of 39 MLAs, Ajit Pawar in July 2023 had joined hands with the BJP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. He had then declared that his group of MLAs was the real NCP, causing his uncle to form a different faction by the name of Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP{SP}).

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Before the Lok Sabha elections, it seemed Ajit Pawar was riding a high. But as they say all good things must come to an end. And at the recently-concluded Lok Sabha elections, his NCP fared poorly, winning just one of the four seats that it contested. This compared to his uncle’s showing of eight wins.

Ajit Pawar had made these elections a prestige battle, especially in the seat of Baramati, considered a Pawar bastion. He had fielded his wife, Sunetra Pawar, against Supriya Sule , the sitting MP and daughter of Sharad Pawar. And despite all the stops he pulled out during the election campaign, Supriya Sule won a fourth term by more than 1,50,000 votes.

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And it’s not just Baramati. Ajit Pawar failed to win Shirur, the other Lok Sabha seat in Pune district. NCP-SP’s incumbent Amol Kolhe defeated his party’s candidate Shivajirao Adhalrao –Patil with a margin of over 1.4 lakh votes.

Interestingly, ahead of the polls, Nilesh Lanke, NCP MLA from Parner, who had switched to Sharad Pawar’s group contested from the Ahmednagar Lok Sabha constituency and won against sitting BJP MP Sujay Vikhe Patil, son of BJP heavyweight Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil.

The only saving grace for Ajit Pawar was the win of Maharashtra NCP president Sunil Tatkare from the Raigad seat.

Ajit Pawar’s poor showing at the Lok Sabha elections will also affect his future in the Mahayuti alliance. Insiders have said that with one seat in his kitty, it seems unlikely that the junior Pawar may be considered as CM face for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections.

Maha churn within NCP

And following his party’s poor performance at the polls, there already seems to be a rumbling within the NCP. At a meeting he held on Thursday, the absence of five MLAs raised eyebrows. Of the five who chose to skip the meeting, one was Maharashtra deputy speaker Narhari Zirwal, who is currently abroad.

This also led to speculation that around 10-15 MLAs from Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction were in touch with the Sharad Pawar camp. This gained even more traction when NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) state president Jayant Patil without naming any party said that several leaders were in touch with them. “We will think of these proposals at our meeting on 9 June. On 10 June, we have our foundation day,” he said.

Even MLA Rohit Pawar of the Sharad Pawar faction told a Marathi news channel that 18-19 MLAs belonging to Ajit Pawar-led NCP were eager to cross over to their side. “At least 19 MLAs of Ajit Pawar’s party are in touch with our party chief. In next few days, the picture regarding what decision the MLAs take will become clear,” Rohit Pawar told ABP Majha, a Marathi news channel.

However, in an attempt to put rumours to rest, Maharashtra NCP president and MP Sunil Tatkare said that the information that NCP MLAs are in touch with Sharad Pawar is a rumour. “We are together,” he said.

“Core Committee meeting (of the party) was held today. A review of the Lok Sabha election results was held. In the upcoming Vidhan Sabha elections we will work aggressively. No one is going with Sharad Pawar, everyone will work together under the leadership of Ajit Pawar,” he added further.

Mumbai: Maharashtra NCP President and MP Sunil Tatkare says, "Core Committee meeting (of the party) was held today. Review over the Lok Sabha election results was held. In the upcoming Vidhanb Sabha elections we will work aggressively...A meeting of all NCP MLAs will be held in… pic.twitter.com/Rcrxou8tce

— ANI (@ANI) June 6, 2024

However, it still remains to be seen if this is just conjecture. Some NCP leaders have told media outlets that they are assessing their future. “Leaders chose Ajit Pawar over [Sharad] Pawar saheb because they believed they would get better prospects and opportunities. But when the election results show that their party is not doing well, they will reassess their decision and some may think of jumping ship,” said one to Hindustan Times.

Another added that the poll results may force MLAs to rethink their decision of siding with Ajit Pawar. According to the insider, who told Hindustan Times, the party members will rethink if they can contest the Maharashtra Assembly elections against the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA). “The MVA candidates got support from the people, and the [Narendra] Modi factor not working in Maharashtra is concerning for leaders from all the three ruling parties.”

Choices before Ajit Pawar

On Thursday (6 June), Ajit Pawar took full responsibility for his party’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls and asserted the defeat in Baramati was surprising.

When asked if he would once again join hands with NCP founder Sharad Pawar, he tersely said he accepted responsibility for the poll debacle, adding “there is no need to bring family matters in public”.

But given his past flip-flops, it won’t be surprising if junior Pawar tries to stage a return to his uncle’s fold. The question remains: Will the uncle relent?

With inputs from agencies