Justin Trudeau’s MPs call for secret ballot vote against him: Will this be the end of his political career?

Justin Trudeau is facing tough times, perhaps the toughest in his political career. Not only is he facing pressure from the opposition with Bloc Quebecois chief Yves-Francois Blanchet saying he is working to topple Trudeau but also from within his party, with an increasing number of MPs asking him to step down.

Some of the Liberal MPs are now trying to push a secret ballot caucus vote on Trudeau’s future. Long-time Liberal MP Helena Jaczek said on the matter, “I’m very much in favour of a secret ballot. I think it’s time that we clear the air.”

Pressure has been mounting on Trudeau to step down as leader. The new demand comes after Liberal MPs at a closed-door meeting on October 23 also made similar requests, arguing that Trudeau resigning would be best for him and the party.

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, meanwhile, has remained adamant that he would lead the party for the next election, scheduled to be held before October 2025.

Let’s take a closer look at what’s going on in Canadian politics and if Trudeau will be able to survive the toughest challenge to his leadership.

Call for secret ballot vote against Trudeau

Several Liberal MPs are unhappy with Trudeau’s leadership and on Monday (October 28) said that if the Canadian PM wouldn’t heed their call to step down, they would try to force him out of the job.

Liberal MP Yvan Baker told CBC News, “Given the fact that there are quite a number of MPs, quite a number of Liberals and Canadians who feel that someone else should lead the Liberal Party into the next election, I think the way to move forward is to hold a secret ballot vote. I think that’s the best thing for the party and the country.”

Baker said it should be a secret ballot vote so MPs can vote “without fear of repercussions or consequences”.

If a vote was to happen, it would take place on Wednesday (October 30) when the Liberal Party’s caucus meets at Parliament Hill.

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“The prime minister and his team have said on a number of occasions that he enjoys the support of the vast majority of the caucus. To me, that suggests he shouldn’t have any concerns about putting it to a secret ballot vote,” Baker added.

A call for a secret ballot vote was seconded by MP Sameer Zuberi as well as long-time Liberal MP Helena Jaczek. “A secret ballot would put this to rest. We need to have some finality to this. I think that would help us as a party move beyond this,” said Zuberi, who serves as parliamentary secretary to the diversity minister.

Liberal MP Wayne Long has also supported the call for a vote on Trudeau, telling CBC’s Rosemary Barton Live, “We think a secret ballot would absolutely, once and for all, solve it, put it to bed.”

Unprecedented moment in Canadian politics

The call for a secret ballot vote on Trudeau comes after Liberal MPs last week had given Trudeau a deadline of October 28 to decide on not seeking a fourth term. At last week’s caucus, some MPs had drafted a letter asking him not to seek a record fourth term.

However, it seems that Trudeau hasn’t heeded their concerns when two days after the caucus meeting, he told an Ontario news podcast, “I am determined to lead this party into the next election. I’m actually really excited about this fight.”

Analysts note that this is an unheard moment in Canadian politics, with there being no precedence for such a vote to work.

Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the Liberal former prime minister Paul Martin told The Guardian that Canada has “exactly zero tradition” of prime ministers leaving their job voluntarily, with virtually all either suffering electoral defeat or “jumping at the very last moment when they’ve exhausted every possibility” of winning.

Moreover, the Liberal caucus has no provisions to even stage such a vote. That’s because they did not adopt the provisions of the 2015 Reform Act, which states that if 20 per cent of caucus members sign a petition calling for a leadership review, a vote is triggered. If a majority of the MPs vote against the leader, they are forced to step down.

Trudeau’s declining popularity

The calls for Canada’s Trudeau to step away from the race comes when his star is on the wane. The CBC poll tracker shows the Liberals trailing nearly 20 points behind the opposition Conservatives, a showing so poor it has little historical precedent for the party.

Abacus Data pollster David Coletto released data from another poll that showed that the Conservatives have even bigger lead. The poll showed that about 60 per cent of Canadians have a negative view of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and only 23 per cent have a positive view.

“In the past, even unpopular governments aren’t polling this poorly,” political analyst Éric Grenier said at The Writ. “The trouble for the Liberals is that has been a longstanding trend; it’s not the result of one scandal or big issue, but rather the drip, drip, drip of being in power for nearly 10 years.

“And the reality is that people already know what they think of Justin Trudeau, and they’re not going to change their minds about him.”

Challenge from the opposition

Trudeau isn’t just facing a revolt from his party. He’s also facing a stiff challenge from the opposition, namely the Bloc Quebecois. On Tuesday (October 29), Bloc Quebecois chief Yves-Francois Blanchet said that the Canadian PM’s “days are numbered”.

He said he would work with other opposition parties in Canada’s Parliament to topple Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government. “We are negotiating with opposition parties in order to have the government fall,” he told reporters.

He will need the leftist New Democratic Party and the Conservatives — who are eager to force an election — to take down Trudeau’s Liberals.

With inputs from agencies