 "Will Canada’s Justin Trudeau resign today? What happens next if he does?")
Today (October 28) is reckoning day for Canada’s Justin Trudeau. Today’s the day that MPs from his own party, the Liberal Party of Canada, had set as a deadline for him to step away from the elections, scheduled to be held by October 2025.
Last Wednesday (October 23), in a closed-door meeting with Liberal lawmakers, he faced the stiffest challenge to his leadership when about 20 lawmakers signed an internal document calling on Trudeau to step aside and not seek a fourth term.
But how did Trudeau get here? What happens next? We get you the answers.
Calling on Trudeau to step down
Last Wednesday (October 23), Justin Trudeau met with his lawmakers at the party’s caucus meeting on Parliament Hill in a closed-door interaction.
Following the meeting, at least 24 MPs — none of them Cabinet members – signed an agreement to call on Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader.
A CBC News report said that an MP even read out a separate document — which laid out an argument for Trudeau’s resignation — during the meeting. In his argument for Trudeau to step down, the MP wrote that Democrats in the US had benefited from Joe Biden stepping down from the race. Similarly, the Liberals could gain if Trudeau were to back out of Canada’s prime ministerial race.
The letter signed by the MPs was read out during the caucus meet, which presented many arguments for Trudeau to step aside from the race for the upcoming elections.
The dissident MPs gave Trudeau until October 28 to decide his future.
According to several news reports, the meet became increasingly uncomfortable for Trudeau, who at one point also got emotional telling his MPs about the emotional toll his political career had taken on his three children, especially the “F**k Trudeau” signs in public.
Post the meet, members of the Liberal MPs attempted to present a unified front. Marc Miller, the immigration minister and a friend of Trudeau since high school, said after the party meeting that he did not expect the prime minister to quit. “This isn’t a code red situation,” said Miller. He said the prime minister can “handle the truth.” He added, speaking of Trudeau, “He’s quite clear about his intentions, and I don’t expect those to change.”
Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne said, “It was a great discussion, the type of discussion that Canadians would be proud to see. What really matters in the end is that we come out of that caucus meeting united, resolved and delivering for Canadians.”
Ontario MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith said it was a “healthy conversation” but argued that Trudeau needs to take the message from disaffected MPs to heart. “The prime minister has to listen to the frustrations — and in some cases the really valid frustrations — of his caucus colleagues and incorporate that into changes moving forward,” he told reporters as he left the caucus meeting.
Trudeau’s sliding popularity
The dissent from his MPs is the latest indicator that all is not well for Justin Trudeau. In his ninth year as prime minister, Trudeau’s popularity has sunk to record lows, with fears that it could lead his party to a drubbing in the upcoming elections, with some even predicting that the Liberals could come a distant third place in the polls.
Earlier, in September, the New Democratic Party , led by Jagmeet Singh, severed their ties with the Liberals and said that they would decide on support for the government on a case-by-case basis. In the early weeks of October, as Trudeau prepared for overseas visits to France and Laos, he faced a movement to oust him from his own MPs. He was also forced to cancel his plans to attend the Commonwealth summit in Samoa this week owing to the discontent he faces at home.
Trudeau is no longer a likeable force within Canadian politics. The Liberals suffered stunning upsets in special elections in two districts in Montreal and Toronto, considered safe seats for the party. Moreover, a Nanos Research poll released on October 15 shows that the Liberals only enjoy 23 per cent of public support while his rivals, the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre , lead with a 39 per cent support.
The cost of living, the housing crisis and the diplomatic fallout with India have also worsened Trudeau’s declining popularity. Many also criticise his ‘woke’ policies, saying it has led to a deterioration of Canada’s social fabric. For instance, the relaxed laws on dangerous drugs; in the westernmost province of British Columbia, it’s perfectly legal to possess 2.5 grammes of hard drugs such as heroin, cocaine and fentanyl.
Shaky future awaits Trudeau
Despite the discontent that Trudeau faces from not only the public but his own people, the Canadian PM has said that he is not going anywhere. Stepping out of the meet on Wednesday, he said he was “determined to lead this party into the next election”.
However, he also acknowledged that some change is necessary. “My perspective is yes, we need to make significant changes in how we engage with Canadians over the coming months. But that is part and parcel of what an election campaign is,” Trudeau said.
When asked about the slump he and his party faces, Trudeau said that he reminded his colleagues who got elected in 2015 that “they signed up to run for the distant third-place party in the House of Commons … and we pulled off something big”.
Moreover, there is no mechanism within the Liberal Party to oust their leader, except in the case of electoral loss, incapacitation or death. This means that Trudeau could continue even though he may not enjoy the support of his own party members.
And while it seems unlikely that he will step down, if he does, there are two options for Trudeau. He could stay on until a new leader is chosen, or resign immediately. If he does the latter, an interim leader would fill in to head the party while a leadership race takes place.
In the case of Trudeau stepping down before the polls, the national president of the Liberals party would have 27 days to call a board meeting to decide their next leader.
But who could succeed Trudeau? Potential candidates include Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Housing Minister Sean Fraser, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Treasury Board President Anita Anand.
Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark have both hinted at a possible run as well.
With inputs from agencies
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