Japan’s birth rate falls to lowest in 125 years. Will the country soon go extinct?

If all things hold as they are, in January 2720 — which is 695 years from now — the number of children in Japan will fall to just one. This shocking figure comes as the Asian nation released its population data, which revealed that the number of babies born in Japan in 2024 fell for a ninth straight year to a record low.

This news comes just two days after South Korea reported that the number of babies born in that country rebounded for the first time in nine years in 2024, a result partly attributed to an increase in marriages among couples who delayed weddings during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Demography experts note that Japan faces the threat of going extinct if it continues on this path. Let’s examine Japan’s dropping birth rates and the reasons for it.

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Where are the babies in Japan?

On Thursday, Japan’s health ministry released its population figures , which revealed that the country saw the birth of just 7,20,988 babies, including foreign nationals, in 2024. This is a five per cent decrease from 7,58,631 in 2023. In comparison, India witnessed 2,94,66,366 births in 2024, according to Countrymeters.

The Japanese data further revealed that the number of births shrank to the lowest since the government started tracking the data in 1899.

Combine this with Japan’s death rates and it’s a disaster. In 2024, the country recorded 16,18,684 deaths an increase of 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

This combination of fewer babies and high death numbers has resulted in a decrease in the population — shrinking by almost 9,00,000 people, another record figure. This means that two people died for every new baby born.

Reacting to the development, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba accepted that the trend of declining births has not been reversed yet. “We need to be aware the trend of falling births has not been arrested. But the number of marriages posted an increase. Given close ties between the number of marriages and the number of births, we should focus on this aspect as well,” he said.

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Population figures show that Japan reached its peak of 128.1 million in 2008. However, since then it has lost almost five million people with the decline continuing. Calculations by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research have predicted that the country’s population will fall below 100 million by 2048, and to 87 million in 2060. A third of the country, in other words — more than 40 million people — will have vanished in just over half a century.

A Japanese demographic expert, Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor at Tohoku University’s Research Centre for Aged Economy and Society, has said that if Japan continues this trend then the country will have only one child under the age of 14 in the year 2720, explaining that the Japanese race will cease to exist in 695 years.

“If the decline in the number of births is not stopped, the ‘clock’ will be turned back,” he was quoted as saying, adding, “Japan could become the first country to become extinct due to a low birth rate.”

Why does Japan have a falling birth rate?

The decline in Japan’s birth rate can be attributed to a number of reasons. Takumi Fujinami, an economist at the Japan Research Institute, points to fewer marriages in the country. Unlike other countries, a small proportion of every 100 babies are born out of wedlock in Japan, which indicates a strong correlation between marriage and births.

In Japan last year, the marriage rate did see an increase to 499,999 — a 2.2 per cent increase from the previous year, but it doesn’t negate the effect that took shape in 2020 when the country experienced a 12.7 per cent drop.

In fact, Fujinami said: “The impact could linger on in 2025 as well.”

But why don’t the Japanese want to marry? Experts point to the existing economic conditions along with the importance of gender roles for this phenomenon.

Men who don’t have regular jobs are not considered desirable marriage partners, say many of the women in Japan. Ekaterina Hertog, an associate professor at the Oxford Internet Institute and Institute for Ethics in AI who researches the societal impact of Japanese labour practices, told Newsweek that the “traditional male breadwinner expectations” in Japan cause lower-paid men to postpone marriage or skip it entirely.

There’s also the issue where women find themselves in irregular jobs, which also has implications for raising a family because the hours are unpredictable and the pay is low. This leads to many of them choosing not to have a family at all.

Some experts also point to the fact that there’s a lack of good jobs in the Japanese market, which may be creating a class of men who don’t marry and have children because they — and their potential partners — know they can’t afford to.

Japan also has a culture of overworking — there’s even a Japanese word, karoshi, for death by overwork — which results in couples having fewer babies.

Is Japan doing anything about its shrinking population?

Japan’s dwindling population has been a concern for its officials for the past few years. In 2023, it also prompted then Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to say that it was a “now or never situation”.

“Japan is standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society,” he had said. “Focusing attention on policies regarding children and child-rearing is an issue that cannot wait and cannot be postponed.

The government has also initiated several programmes to encourage the Japanese to marry and have children. One such initiative is the state-run dating app to encourage marriage by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government. The move had even caught the attention of tech billionaire and owner of Spacex, Tesla and X to say, “I’m glad the government of Japan recognises the importance of this matter. If radical action isn’t taken, Japan (and many other countries) will disappear!”

Other measures include expanding childcare facilities and offering housing subsidies. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has also championed a ¥3.6 trillion childcare policy package.

However, going by the numbers it seems that these aren’t helping Japan and the country is now at a crossroads: Do or die (quite literally).

With inputs from agencies