Elon Musk says Singapore is going extinct. Is it true?

Billionaire businessman Elon Musk has a big warning for Singapore. And many other countries.

He raised concerns regarding Singapore’s declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which dropped to a historic low of 0.97 last year - its first fall below 1.0.

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The fertility crisis is not limited to Singapore as similar trends have been seen in South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and China.

Reports also suggest that India is witnessing a decline in fertility rates.

What’s happening in Singapore? What did Musk say?

Singapore measures the TFR as the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, similar to the United Nations’ standard. Official data reveals that the TFR fell to 0.97 in 2023, down from 1.04 in 2022, far below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed for population stability.

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Last month, the Ministry of Manpower said in a statement, “The slowing resident population growth and ageing of our population will lead to tightening manpower constraints in the medium term. We will continue to support career transitions into jobs and sectors that are more productive and higher-paying. At the same time, we need to remain open to foreign workers and foreign direct investments to continue to generate good job opportunities for Singaporeans.”

The United Nations has also projected that 24% of Singapore’s population will be senior citizens by 2030, putting the country on the trajectory to become a “super-aged society” similar to Japan.

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Singapore’s declining birth rates rank among the world’s lowest, with South Korea reporting an even lower TFR of 0.72 in 2023, according to The Straits Times.

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Addressing this issue, Indranee, who oversees the National Population and Talent Division under the Strategy Group in the PMO, stated that Singapore faces “twin demographic challenges of a persistently low fertility rate and an ageing population.”

Amid these concerns, Elon Musk has addressed Singapore’s fertility crisis. Responding to a post discussing the nation’s “baby crisis” and the possible role of robotics in addressing it, Musk wrote on X, “Singapore (and many other countries) are going extinct.”

Singapore (and many other countries) are going extinct https://t.co/YORyakBynm

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 5, 2024

What are the reasons for the decline in fertility rate?

According to Indranee, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted many couples’ marriage and parenthood plans.

She added, “Others cite concerns about the financial costs of child-raising, pressures to be an excellent parent, or difficulties managing work and family commitments.”

Indranee also pointed to a generational shift in priorities, with young people increasingly viewing marriage and parenthood as less important life goals.

The implications of a declining TFR are serious, she warned. Families are shrinking, and more couples are now responsible for caring for both children and ageing parents. “With fewer births, we will face a shrinking workforce. It will be increasingly challenging to maintain our dynamism, attract global businesses, and create opportunities for the next generation,” she said.

Indranee also drew comparisons to South Korea and Italy, where similar trends have led to economic slowdowns, falling wages, and demographic challenges.

Government data shows that more women aged 25-34 are choosing to remain single. Further, marital fertility rates among women in their 20s have declined, contributing to 32% of the overall drop in TFR, Economic Times said in a report. While marital fertility rates for women aged 25-34 fell sharply between 1990 and 2005, a slight recovery was seen in 2023.

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Can robots solve the problem?

Singapore is embracing robotics to solve labour shortages and ranks second globally in robot density with 770 industrial robots per 10,000 workers, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

Despite its small manufacturing industry, the region has robocops, robo-cleaners, robo-waiters, and robo-dogs across its public spaces. Robots are also deployed at Changi Airport for patrolling, enhancing efficiency and reducing dependence on a limited workforce, India Today reported.

Elon Musk, whose company Tesla invests heavily in humanoid robots, views robotics as a potential solution to labour and demographic challenges faced by countries like Singapore.

South Korea’s crisis, neighbours face the same problem

Meanwhile, South Korea faces a severe fertility crisis, with its population at risk of shrinking to a third of its current size by the end of the century.

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Concerns over “national extinction” have begun along with debates on how to address the issue and the role of work culture and gender dynamics in the decline.

Data from Statistics Korea, released on Wednesday, revealed an 8% drop in the country’s fertility rate in 2023 compared to the previous year. Experts warn that South Korea’s population of 51 million could be halved by 2100 if the trend continues, Al Jazeera said in a report.

Not only South Korea, but its neighbours are also facing the challenge of declining birth rates. In China and Japan, fertility rates reached record lows of 1.09 and 1.26, respectively, in 2022, according to the report.

In Japan, the number of deaths more than doubled the number of births in 2023.

With inputs from agencies