Why South Korea could become the first country to disappear from Earth

Once known for its rapid economic growth and modernisation, South Korea is now facing a severe crisis.

If this trend continues, the nation’s population could decline to a third of its current size by century’s end.

What is causing this change? A fertility crisis.

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The country’s fertility rate, already the world’s lowest, has declined further. Concerns over “national extinction” have begun along with debates on how to address the issue and the role of work culture and gender dynamics in the decline.

What does the data say? What is the government’s plan?

Data from Statistics Korea, released on Wednesday, revealed an 8% drop in the country’s fertility rate in 2023 compared to the previous year. Experts warn that South Korea’s population of 51 million could be halved by 2100 if the trend continues, according to Al Jazeera.

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The national birth rate hit a record low of 0.72 children per woman in 2023 and was expected to fall further to 0.6 this year.

In response to the situation, the South Korean government is considering offering parents 100 million won in cash for each child born, in a bid to reverse the declining birth rate, The Independent reported. The government’s Anti-Corruption & Civil Rights Commission is conducting a public survey to assess public opinion before implementing the plan.

The survey, which began on April 17, asks four key questions to determine if people support spending 22 trillion won annually on the initiative and if financial incentives would encourage couples to have children. This proposed funding would account for roughly half of the national budget dedicated to addressing low birth rates, which is around 48 trillion won annually.

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In a statement, the commission said, “Through this survey, we plan to re-evaluate the country’s birth promotion policies to determine whether direct financial subsidies could be an effective solution.”

Presently, parents in South Korea receive between 35 million won and 50 million won in various incentives and support programmes from birth until their child turns 7.

How did this happen?

South Korea’s demographic crisis could be due to several factors, with the primary cause being frustrations among couples over the rising cost of living and declining quality of life.

The decline in fertility rates in South Korea can be traced back to the 1960s, when the government, concerned about rapid population growth outpacing economic development, implemented family planning policies to curb birth rates.

At that time, South Korea’s per capita income was only 20 per cent of the global average, and the fertility rate was high - six children per woman. By 1982, with economic growth, the fertility rate had dropped to 2.4, still above the replacement level of 2.1, but showing signs of progress, The Economic Times reported.

By 1983, the nation reached the replacement level, and the fertility rate continued to fall sharply in the following decades. What began as a controlled reduction has now become a crisis, with projections suggesting South Korea’s population could shrink from 52 million to just 17 million by the end of the century.

Some experts estimate a loss of up to 70 per cent of the population, leaving only 14 million people - a situation that could destabilise the economy and lead to unprecedented societal challenges, the report said.

South Korea has introduced various measures to boost birth rates, such as recruiting foreign workers for childcare, providing tax benefits, and even suggesting that men with three or more children by the age of 30 could be exempted from military service. However, these efforts have had limited impact so far.

The root cause of the problem

The main cause of the issue lies within the country’s social and cultural dynamic.

In urban areas, many women place a higher priority on their careers over starting families. According to a government survey from 2023, more than half of the respondents identified the “burden of parenting” as the main problem of female participation in the workforce, Times of India said in a report.

The increase in dual-income households and better access to education has enabled women to delay or even skip marriage and childbirth altogether.

Further, marriage is no longer viewed as a necessity for having children. Over the last decade, the proportion of people who accept having children outside of marriage has grown from 22 per cent to 35 per cent. However, only 2.5 per cent of children in South Korea are born out of wedlock, The Economic Times said in a report.

Among those who do marry, women are increasingly demanding a more equal distribution of household responsibilities. Notably, a huge gender gap remains in the country, with 92 per cent of women handling household chores on weekdays, compared to just 61 per cent of men, the report said.

Gwak Tae-hee, a 34-year-old junior manager at a Korean dairy company, who has been married for three years, told Al Jazeera, “Having a baby is on my list, but there’s windows for promotions and I don’t want to be passed over.”

Cha Ji-hye, a South Korean mother, stated that she previously spent $5,400 a month on two babysitters for her quadruplets, while her husband worked overseas.

“What family can spend that kind of money to raise children?” Ji-hye, who is currently on extended leave from her job in a nuclear power plant, told the media outlet.

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South Korea’s neighbours face the same problem

Not only South Korea, but its neighbours are also facing the challenge of declining birth rates. In China and Japan, fertility rates reached record lows of 1.09 and 1.26, respectively, in 2022, according to Al Jazeera.

In Japan, the number of deaths more than doubled the number of births in 2023.

With inputs from agencies