The Taliban walk into Delhi — and India opens its doors: Afghan expert calls it 'strategic shift'

The India tour of Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was the first diplomatic visit to Delhi by a Taliban minister since the group took over Kabul in 2021. Muttaqi’s visit comes as the two countries look to upgrade the diplomatic relations frozen since the regime change in Afghanistan.

While Muttaqi’s six-day visit garnered controversy, with his team not allowing female journalists at a press meet, a move which was corrected by holding an all-inclusive second press meet , it also brought monumental changes in how India perceived Afghanistan under the Taliban. On 10 October, India announced that it was reopening its embassy in Kabul, four years after it was shut following the 2021 Taliban takeover.

“I am pleased to announce today the upgrading of India’s Technical Mission in Kabul to the status of Embassy of India,” Jaishankar said during his bilateral meeting with Muttaqi. A year after closing its embassy in Kabul, India had opened a small mission focused on facilitating trade, medical support, and humanitarian aid.

What made the move and Muttaqi’s visit significant is the fact that New Delhi’s policy shift on Afghanistan came amid deteriorating ties between the Taliban regime and India’s arch-rival Pakistan.

In an exclusive conversation with Firstpost’s Bhagyasree Sengupta, Dr Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, founder of the independent research forum- Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS), shared her perspectives on the nuances and complexities of India-Afghanistan ties under the Taliban, with Muttaqi’s visit marking a significant shift in the bilateral ties between the two nations.

Why is Muttaqi’s India visit significant?

While speaking to Firstpost, Dr D’Souza explained why Muttaqi’s visit to India marked an important shift in the ties between the two nations following the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. “I think it’s a significant shift in terms of moving away from a policy of cautious engagement to greater engagement with the Taliban to reconnect and rebuild ties with the Afghan people, which were ruptured in August 2021. The announcement of the opening of the Indian embassy in Kabul is an important step in terms of messaging and upgrading of ties in line with the Agreement of the Strategic Partnership, which was signed by India and Afghanistan in October 2011”, she said.

She recalled how the shift was gradual and had started a few months after the Taliban took over Kabul. “New Delhi took a gradual but incremental step with the opening up of a technical mission in June 2022 to provide humanitarian assistance. This was followed by meetings and exchanges with senior-level diplomats and the telephonic conversation in May 2025 with the foreign minister following the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025, gradually scaling up the level of engagement with the visit of the Foreign Minister to India in October 2025,” she said.

“The visit of the foreign minister of the Taliban to India is definitely a strategic shift in terms of upgrading the level of engagement with the Taliban, which India had been reluctant for a long time. This comes interestingly following Russia’s recognition of the Taliban, Trump’s claim of Bagram airbase, increased Chinese presence in Afghanistan and deterioration in the Afghanistan-Pakistan relations,” D’Souza explained.

Beyond geopolitics: It’s geoeconomics

She highlighted that the visit provides an important opportunity for both the nations to work together and India to regain the “strategic space it lost in 2021. “I also think this has been a very important opportunity for both India and Afghanistan to come together not just in terms of geopolitics, but also in geoeconomics, given that Afghanistan has tremendous potential in minerals, horticulture and agriculture.”

“More importantly, Afghanistan is crucial as a land bridge for India in terms of connectivity to Central Asia , which has not been actualised due to Pakistan’s obstructionist policies. India had invested in Chabahar Port as an alternative option to provide access to the sea to landlocked Afghanistan whenever Pakistan closed its borders. However, the sanctions imposed by the US and Trump’s claims on Bagram have further complicated the situation,” she said.

“If you look at the geopolitical landscape, which has been quite fluid for some time, India is gradually looking at doing business with the Taliban. Moreover, Minister Muttaqi’s visit to Darul Uloom Deoband seminary in Saharanpur, Uttar Pradesh, underscores the historical, civilizational and cultural connection between the two countries and a new form of cultural-religious diplomacy. The Taliban had adhered to the Deobandi school of Islam during their early days.”

There’s a civilisational connect: D’Souza

Dr. D’Souza highlighted the age-old civilisational connection between India and Afghanistan, even though in its earlier rule, the Taliban had demolished the Bamiyan Buddhas, drawing global flak for wiping out a cultural heritage site.

She said, “I think this is an important signal not merely in terms of geopolitics but also through the cultural and civilisational lens. The larger question is about the whole idea of how to deal with the Taliban, given the fact that the Taliban have held power for the last four years in Afghanistan.

“There is no effective counter or contestation to the Taliban. There are opposition groups outside Afghanistan who do more advocacy. The question of legitimacy or type of political system needs to be decided by the people inside the country.”

“As of now, India will have to work with the Taliban and engage them at various levels to help the Afghans in need, as stated in the ASP. And gradually over time, there could be a socialisation process within the Taliban as their interaction with the outside world increases. For instance, there are differences among them when it comes to issues of curtailing women’s rights or education for girls beyond the primary level and the recent ban on the internet. These differences were evident between the Kabul and Kandahar shuras. It will be useful to engage and interact with them to increase the space for socialisation and mainstreaming. It will also be good in terms of normalising the relationship between India and Afghanistan,” D’Souza told Firstpost.

She noted how India has a more pragmatic view towards the Taliban 2.0 than the one they had in the 1990s with Taliban 1.0 when they took control over Afghanistan. Overall, D’Souza expressed optimism, emphasising that Muttaqi’s Delhi visit would lead to upgrading of ties between the two countries and hopefully will lead to more visas being given to the Afghans for medical, education and business purposes.

Rebuilding ties amid women and human rights concerns

Ever since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, they have imposed numerous restrictions on women in Afghanistan. In 2024, Firstpost reached out to an Afghan human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize nominee, Mahbouba Seraj . For decades, Seraj has been fighting for the rights of women in the country and pledges to do so till the very end.

During the thought-provoking interview , Seraj expressed her frustration about how the voices of the Afghan women are being considered “haram” in their own country. “According to the Taliban right now, our voices are haram, we cannot breathe in a loud voice, to other women, the Qur’an, nor the hadith, nor anything, because it’s all haram. These are the things that the Taliban are coming up with. I have no idea what the meaning of this is, and where they are coming up with all of this. We are stuck”.

D’Souza maintained that while the women and human rights concerns in Afghanistan remain, there is a need to see these issues “beyond the Western prism”. “When you look at the ban on girls’ education and women’s rights issues, there is a need to understand the structural constraints and help build agency inside the country to bring about sustainable and transformational change.”

“I spoke to the women leaders, officials at ministries, experts and academia in Afghanistan during my visit to that country last month. There is pushback when it comes to overemphasis on issues that they consider internal. There is a need to understand the local and cultural context and work with them to bring about change gradually by providing agency,” she said.

“The international community’s emphasis on such issues has led to a reactionary kind of response. They point out that every time anyone from the West comes to Afghanistan, the first thing they bring up is human rights and women’s issues, and they don’t want interference in their internal matters.”

“It’s true that in the last two decades, women were going to work and girls were going to school. But these gains, though noteworthy, were fragile, and when this transition occurred and Kabul fell in August 2021, there was a reversal of gains. There was no institutionalisation to prevent the backsliding of such gains. However, things are not so bleak. During my recent visit to Afghanistan, I did see women out in the streets doing their business.”

“They are allowed to do tailoring, weaving and artisan work. The women are working around the constraints and finding innovative ways of earning their livelihood. If you look at the work done by the Afghan Women’s Chamber of Commerce, there are many small and medium enterprises run by women. But these stories of resilience and courage have not been highlighted by the media, with the result that these women do not get much help from the international community,” she averred.

‘The hope is that there will be a transformational change’

She emphasised that the international community should try to help the Afghans inside the country to navigate the complex terrain. “They are fine with wearing their chador, which is their attire within the cultural context. What they want is more assistance in up-skilling and specialised education. One of the women leaders heading a local NGO is working with the Ministry of Education in developing a mixed curriculum of trying to gradually get the general education, science, physics and biology into the curriculum in the madrasas in line with the blended educational curriculum model,” she said.

“People in Afghanistan are trying to work within the structural constraints. So we need to understand those constraints and help build agency so that women inside Afghanistan can bring about transformational change,” she further reiterated.

Dr D’Souza emphasised that the West’s rhetoric is making the Taliban’s response harsher. “As a response, they banned the internet because they thought the internet was influencing young minds. So anything that challenges the leadership’s authority is not welcome. For example, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, the deputy foreign minister who spoke against the ban on girls’ education, had to leave the country,” the Afghanistan expert averred. Moreover, the harsher edicts are seen as necessary to maintain the internal cohesion of the group, particularly in the face of the challenge posed by the radical group, Islamic State Khorasan (ISK).

“So we have to understand the context and the internal dynamics inside the Taliban and their threat perception. There is a need to give them the space to socialise and get them into the mainstream gradually. This does not mean that their worldview might change dramatically, but I think that’s the calculated risk one has to take,” she concluded.

‘India needs to scale up in Afghanistan’

During the conversation, D’Souza noted that there was a significant difference between India’s pledge of $3 billion in developmental assistance to Afghanistan and what was actually spent in the country in the last two decades. She maintained that this has led to an “expectation gap”. D’Souza recalled how the Afghanistan parliament that India helped build is now shut, the “cold storage facility in Kandahar does not run to optimal utility”.

“More than projects, there is a need for long-term institution building. India needs to conduct lessons learnt policy exercise and not repeat the mistakes of the last two decades. There is a need to do institution building so that the assistance which is sent to the country reaches the people at the periphery and brings about change. There has to be an in-built business plan for providing aid to a certain project or for an infrastructure development activity to bring about sustainable development and change,” D’Souza told Firstpost.

She further stated that the reopening of the embassy will strengthen the diplomatic ties between India and Afghanistan. “In terms of re-opening of the embassy, I think it is significant because India was functioning through a small technical mission with a few personnel and an oversized security presence. The Afghans were expecting more interaction and assistance. During my visit last month, they pointed out the fact that India needs to scale up its presence and local interaction,” D’Souza told Firstpost.

“People in the technical mission have not been able to reach out to the large section of the Afghan people. This step is a good move in that direction of making it known that India will engage and work with the Afghans in line with the ASP”

How India-Afghanistan ties are making Pakistan nervous

When asked about the wider regional implications of this visit, D’Souza pointed out how Muttaqi’s India trip is invariably making Pakistan “nervous”.

“In terms of the regional dynamics, it will make the Pakistan military establishment nervous as their protégés assert independence in terms of foreign policy and the contentious Durand Line. The ongoing attacks in Kabul are an indicator to show that the Pakistani establishment can still hurt Afghanistan. The fact that the Taliban is moving closer to India shows that there is a push back and assertion of their independence. If you look at the larger regional geopolitics and changing dynamics, I think the Chinese are moving in much more broadly and expanding the security and economic footprint,” she told Firstpost.

“The Chinese embassy is much larger than the Indian Chancery. Huge walls built around demonstrate the Chinese quandary. They seem to lack the understanding of the cultural dynamics or the social, cultural context in which they are operating, as they faced blowback in the last two decades.”

“India has been able to do things differently in Afghanistan due to shared cultural and civilizational connections. However, there is a need for some lessons learnt policy exercise like other countries are doing to avoid the mistakes of the past. There is a need to look at significant areas of people-centric engagement through Small Development Projects (SDPs) and investment in infrastructure development to provide access to the markets "

“During my discussions with the National Development Corporation (NDC), they wanted more help in terms of manufacturing, joint ventures and building industrial parks. There is an interest and need inside Afghanistan towards generating their revenue and achieving self-sufficiency in an attempt to move away from being an externally aid-dependent rentier state, more so in the face of sanctions,” she explained.

D’Souza pointed out that Afghanistan is currently facing numerous international sanctions, which have led to this internal reorientation towards achieving self-sufficiency. India can help in terms of capacity building, technical assistance, upskilling and providing access to markets. Even with women who face restrictions, helping them in capacity building will help women diversify and generate their own income. It shouldn’t be a geopolitical game or realpolitik, but it has to be a long-term investment, where the connection that India had with the people of Afghanistan needs to be reestablished,” she explained.

The China question

When asked about China’s growing investment in Afghanistan, D’Souza noted that Beijing was heavily invested in the country’s mining sector. She also gave her take on the roadblocks and Afghanistan’s outlook towards CPEC. “They hit the roadblock at Mes Aynak because it was an archaeological site. But China has presently expanded the mining sector, particularly of critical minerals. But in terms of joining the CPEC, the Taliban have shown interest, but there have been concerns about the Chinese intent,” she said.

“So I think, though, they look towards China in terms of engaging them in terms of investment and the mining sector. I’m not sure how the CPEC will work because the way CPEC has worked in Pakistan and the huge loan default that Pakistan will face, Afghanistan will be in a similar situation. And China obviously knows that Afghanistan will not be in a position to pay back.”

“It’s more of a geopolitical stage play, which is occurring in terms of China showing that it’s able to do so much in Afghanistan. But on the ground, I think the reality is a little different,” she remarked.

Concerns over terrorism and instability

While the Taliban is opening its doors for international investments , the country continues to grapple with constant instability in the face of deteriorating Afghanistan-Pakistan relations. Since the time of Taliban 1.0, Pakistan has long tried to turn the Taliban against India to gain its strategic depth by providing sanctuary to anti-India groups. When asked about these challenges, D’Souza pointed out that the Taliban have already made it clear that “they will respect the sovereignty of other countries and will not use this soil to be used against others.”

“The Taliban does have linkages to various groups because during the anti-Soviet Jihad resistance movement, there were a lot of Islamic parties and groups that came together as a crucible of international terrorism in the 1980s. But the fact that there’s a guarantee given by the Taliban that the soil will not be used is very important. And the Taliban itself is facing the threat from the Islamic State Khorasan,” she told Firstpost.

“So they will need more assistance to deal with this. And they will not be looking at using these groups against any regional countries now, when they’re actually looking for recognition. If they are recognised, they will have to behave as a responsible member of the international community.”

“I think the security risk might be a little exaggerated unless those risks are used by the neighbouring countries against India, particularly Pakistan. The Taliban’s support for the TTP is a classic case of strategic blowback and tit for tat. I think what Pakistan does with these groups is more important than the Taliban. The Taliban has control over the territory. And they have promised that they will not let any group use their soil against any other country ,” she said.

The other evil: Drug trafficking

Drug trafficking across the border has also been a major hindrance to addressing the issue of the conflict economy in Afghanistan. While in 2022, the Taliban banned opium production in the country, the poppy cultivation was drastically reduced, but the problem continues to persist. Apart from this, the narco economy continues to exist in Afghanistan even though the Taliban has been ruling the country for the past 4 years.

When asked about these concerns, D’Souza said that the Afghan group is gradually addressing the matter. “When I went to Afghanistan last month, what I understood was that most of their ministries are running as per the earlier republican model, but they have allegiance to the Sharia, and that’s the key principle. So they do have some semblance of governance, but there is a lot to be done there, and India can help with that,” she explained.

On the issue of Drug trafficking, D’Souza pointed out that the “drug cultivation has reduced dramatically in the country, except for a marginal increase in a province in the northeast of Afghanistan, that’s Badakhshan. But more than the opium, it’s the concern of the synthetic drugs.”

“There was this huge drug bust which occurred off the western coast in India, in Kerala, and the synthetic drugs were supposedly coming from Afghanistan. So I think India needs to work more with Afghanistan in terms of helping the counter narcotics department, and looking at collaborating in terms of building the governance systems.”

“Some of these provinces don’t have alternative livelihood projects. India can help them in terms of agriculture, horticulture, cold storage, and facilities like air freight corridors for their exports. In case of an economic downturn or contraction, farmers may shift towards growing poppy, which is seen in some places in south and west Afghanistan, where poppy is being grown behind walled compounds or mixed cropping. We need to address the source of the problem, and also the means of addressing them at the higher level at the state apparatus by providing them with the technology for detection and enforcement,” she furthered.

Incremental movement is the key

D’Souza maintained that Indian and Afghanistan’s ties are “gradually and incrementally moving towards greater engagement”. Recalling how Muttaqi was allowed to visit India only after UN temporarily lifted his travel ban, she said, “Recognition, I think, will come in with the fact that if the Taliban responds to certain India concerns in terms of security, in terms of economics, but largely I think recognition will take some time because of the UN sanctions which still exist..”

“But India moving ahead and inviting the Taliban foreign minister and reopening its embassy in Kabul has indicated that it is a kind of quasi-recognition at the moment. So there is this fluid space, there is a grey area in which India is functioning.”

“This is not a normal situation because the de facto authorities had captured power, they are in control of Afghanistan, and there are no options. So this is the least bad option. But the fact is that your enemy’s enemy is your friend is a classic adage,” she told Firstpost.

“India and Afghanistan are deeply invested in terms of people-to-people connections. The fact that India has not been giving them visas when they needed them the most has led to a lot of resentment inside Afghanistan. I think India has to gradually scale up its visa services. Beyond looking at the regime and the political connection in terms of recognition, it’s also rebuilding people-to-people ties. India needs to invest there because ultimately any long-term relationship in the region is between people-to-people in terms of education, business, medical treatment and all areas of people-centric diplomacy. India needs to take a larger picture of the evolving situation in Afghanistan and provide assistance to the Afghans in need.”

“This is no guarantee that this will translate into recognition, but the indicators are towards that direction,” she concluded.

Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is a Founder of Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS), a Senior Research Fellow, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, USA and Visiting Faculty, Naval War College, Goa, India. She has worked with governmental and non-governmental sectors and conducted field research in various provinces of Afghanistan for more than a decade.