 "Can Black Sea Corridor be India’s game-changer in Eurasian geopolitics? Armenia backs the bet")
As China aims to strengthen its hold in the Caucasus, Armenia sees India as a potential counterbalance in the Central and West Asia region. Armenian strategic experts told Firstpost that New Delhi could play a pivotal role in the development of a Black Sea Corridor, connecting India to Iran , Armenia, Georgia and the wider Central Asia . In recent years, the region has garnered significant attention with China investing heavily in Azerbaijan and Georgia.
India has the opportunity to utilise its strong ties with Armenia to build a space for itself in the region, say strategic experts. India-Armenia ties go back decades. India surpassed Russia in 2022, becoming Armenia’s largest arms supplier.
When India conducted Operation Sindhu to evacuate Indians stuck in Iran during the latter’s 12-day military conflict with Israel, special flights flew from Armenia to India while both the Iranian and Pakistani airspaces were closed. Armenia also emerged as a vocal ally of India, following the horrific terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, and later during Operation Sindoor, when Indian forces conducted strikes on terror camps in Pakistan.
Armenia, which has its own share of struggles, has aligned itself with India. One of the reasons for this alignment is the geopolitical landscape of the region. In an insightful conversation with Firstpost, Leonid Nersisyan, Senior Research Fellow and Nvard Chalikyan, Research Fellow at APRI Armenia, shared their assessment on India-Armenia relations and explained how both nations can take bilateral ties to the next level.
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During Operation Sindhu, India had a major task on hand, i.e. to evacuate its nationals from Iran and Israel. When it comes to Iran, things have been rough since Tehran closed its airspace amid Israeli strikes. Pakistan, which continues its anti-India campaign, had closed its airspace in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack.
With Iranian airspace also closed, the evacuation of Indian nationals had to be facilitated through its land borders. Given the geopolitical situation, the land borders between Iran and Pakistan in Balochistan were also shut for Indian evacuees.
The same was the case with Iran’s borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, both of which, incidentally, professed overt support for Pakistan during Operation Sindoor . While India and Afghanistan share close ties, New Delhi currently does not have official ties with the Taliban-ruled nation, which is to Iran’s east.
This left three countries, through which Indians could be evacuated: Turkmenistan, Iraq, and Armenia. Given the security risks at Iran’s border with Turkmenistan and Iraq, the 44-km-long Iran-Armenia border became the most viable option for Indian evacuees.
While talking about the smooth evacuation of Indians through Armenia, Chalikyan told Firstpost that Yerevan’s contribution to Operation Sindhu was a “great demonstration of India-Armenia relations in action”.
“This was one among many incidents that show India-Armenia relations developing. Our relations have been good for centuries, we are friendly countries, and our national strategic interests align with each other,” she told Firstpost.
Amenia is a key to countering the Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey Axis
It is pertinent to note that Armenia was one of the first nations to outrightly support India’s Operation Sindoor, in which Indian forces struck nine terror camps in Pakistan. The mission was conducted days after Pakistan-backed terrorists killed 26 people, including 25 tourists, in Pahalgam on April 22. Operation Sindoor was followed by a four-day military confrontation between India and Pakistan.
During the military conflict, Turkey and Azerbaijan swiftly sided with Pakistan, while Armenia remained firm in its stance to support India. “Because we are friendly countries and Armenia is totally in support of India, but also objectively, India was attacked, and it got a terrorist attack on its soil. Armenia sees and understands India’s fight against terrorism, and also because the two countries are friendly, and at the same time, Pakistan is the country that has not even recognised Armenia as a state,” Chalikyan explained.
“Armenia has been in favour of India’s position on the Kashmir issue. For a very long time, this has been articulated both by the government and in the international organisations, so the political level of the support from Armenia again is not new,” she said.
Elaborating on the matter, Nersisyan also spoke about the nature of the state of Pakistan. “I would just add to that, we know what country Pakistan is and we know it very well in our region, nowadays they’re quite valiantly supporting Azerbaijan, which is our difficult neighbour. Their [Pakistan-Azerbaijan ties] are going more strategic and strategic every year, and now Pakistan has also become a quite large armament supplier to Azerbaijan, selling the JF 17 jet fighters to them. So in every sense, India and Armenia’s position aligns,” he said.
While Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey, under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, have bolstered mutual ties as part of the so-called “three brother alliance”. To counter this, India is looking towards the Caucasus. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Cyprus can be seen as the prime example of this geopolitical manoeuvring. When asked how the three-brother alliance and how Armenia and India can emerge as a counterbalance to it, Chalikyan explained why strong ties between the two sides are the need of the hour.
“For a very long time, it [Azerbaijan-Pak-Turkey nexus] has been growing and getting more and more strategic and military after Erdogan came into power in Turkey and considering his desire to expand his influence and to connect with other Turkic-speaking states. Turkey has been backing up Pakistan not only on the Kashmir issue but on a range of other issues. And Turkey has been a vocal critic of India,” she said, referring to Ankara’s stance on the abrogation of Article 370 by India. “Strategic partnership has been growing, not only doing trilateral ex-military exercises but also producing weapons,” she added.
Meanwhile, Nersisyan emphasised the new alliance India can formulate with Cyprus, Greece and Armenia. “Greece was the first NATO country which started supporting Armenia in the defence domain in the 90s after Armenia regained its independence,” he remarked.
“It’s very good to see that partners of India in Europe and partners of Armenia in Europe are the same countries. We are quite happy to see that India has deeper relations with Cyprus and Greece. Cyprus is also one of our close partners, we already have a trilateral cooperation agreement in defence with Cyprus and Greece would be very interesting to look into how India can be added to this equation.”
India surpassed Russia but did not replace it
In recent years, India has surpassed Russia in being Armenia’s largest arms exporter. When asked if the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has anything to do with it, Nersisyan emphasised that there is more to the story. “I think that the Russia-Ukraine war , of course, triggered this process. I mean it made it much faster and dramatic because no supplies were coming to Armenia after 2020 from Russia anymore,” he remarked.
“But the first discussions about Armenia procuring Indian weapons started at least in 2018, and the first contract was signed in 2019. It gained momentum in 2022 with India now being Armenia’s biggest defence supplier, along with France and with local companies which are also developing at the moment very actively in Armenia. So in that sense, it’s became India has become a very important partner, especially on that very day.”
Chalikyan, however, said that while India holds a special spot in terms of Armenia’s defence infrastructure, it still hasn’t replaced Russia. “I agree with what Leonid says about diversification, but at the same time, we cannot say that Armenia is replacing Russia with India because ties are not the same at a formal level,” she said.
“I want to emphasise that formally, Russia is still supposed to guarantee Armenia’s security against an attack, and this is not something that India has ever pledged, and India does not have that ambition as far as I know. But it would be good for us if India were more involved in the region.”
“It needs to go beyond buying and selling arms. We would like to see more involvement in the region, and from a security perspective,” she added, suggesting more joint military exercises between the two nations.
“I think, are close to the moment where our countries should be looking at signing a strategic partnership agreement, some good document like that, because I mean if our country is the largest buyer of made-in-India weapons, it makes sense that our countries should be strategic partners,” Nersisyan averred.
India’s contribution to Armenia’s defence expenditure
Nersisyan further explained how Indian weapons are bolstering Armenia’s defence infrastructure. “During the 2020 war, we had quite serious losses of equipment in our armed forces, and even if we had no 2020 war, our equipment.was getting quite outdated in many senses, so if you look at what was procured from India, according to mostly Indian sources, by the way, you will see lots of artillery systems. You will see air defence, and that’s exactly the part of the armed forces that faced the largest losses,” he said.
“We also boost the quality of our artillery, which was made in the Soviet Union, and most of it is 40-50 years old systems, even more sometimes. I think we made a strategic decision to fully transfer to 155mm Nato calibre, and India is producing only that. Generally speaking, if you look at the lists of what Armenia is procuring from India, you will see almost everything that India can produce at the moment."
“It’s also about being ready to supply these things, and now we see that many types of weapons India is already able to produce at a high level,l so for Armenia, it was also good to see that Akash 1S systems were quite effective during the standoff with Pakistan shorting down also some kinds of drones from Turkey, which Azerbaijan possessed,s and that’s also something we appreciate,” he added.
Black Sea corridor: How India can counter-balance China in the Caucasus
China has emerged as a key player in Central Asia and the Caucasus, with its investment in mining deals and defence supply in Azerbaijan and Georgia. While speaking to Firstpost, Chalikyan noted how Armenia is being left out when it comes to China’s presence in the region. “Caucasus has three countries, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, and in two countries, Azerbaijan and Georgia. China has been investing heavily, especially in growing its. Investment capacity in recent years and its main interest has been investing in new economic projects, and mostly, of course, it is related to infrastructure projects and the Belt and Road Initiative, for which Azerbaijan and Georgia are of importance,” she said.
“Armenia, however, has been left out of the BRI projects, and China has not been investing as much as it has been investing in the other two countries.”
“Our relations are with India, and they develop it more with China, so this is in a way, a region where I think India and China, to some extent, can compete on this infrastructure project,” she added.
Chalikyan also mentioned that both countries will be looking at “which country will have a greater influence in the region in terms of connectivity projects.” For this reason, she noted that the north-south corridor would be crucial. “Black Sea corridor is another option for connecting India, Iran, and Armenia. The development of that project is essential if you want to emerge as a counterbalance in the region,” she said.
“India is looking at alternative routes to connect to Europe. Especially after the Ukraine war turbulence in other shipment routes. India is interested in having alternative and not one but several alternative routes to reach Europe. So one of these routes can be India, Iran, Armenia, Georgia, the Black Sea, and Europe.”
“This is obviously a very major project, and it can make a big difference. It also has some hurdles related to sanctions against Iran, as India and Armenia and Iran collaborate on the foreign ministry level,” she said.
“What Armenia can offer India is a land route alternative to Europe that does not pass through either Turkey or Azerbaijan, because all the other alternatives pass through Iran,” she said.
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