Right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki takes lead in Poland presidential election runoff

As Poland goes to the polls in full swing, overnight projections from the country’s crucial presidential run-off showed that right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki has managed to gain a narrow lead in the race. The preliminary results were drawn out using a combination of exit polls and counted ballots and published at 1 am (local time) on Monday, The Guardian reported.

The latest figure gave Nawrocki a 51-49 per cent lead over his liberal contender Rafał Trzaskowski, an ally of the ruling government led by Donald Tusk. It is pertinent to note that Nawrocki’s candidacy was backed by the right-populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which ruled Poland until Tusk won the parliamentary elections in 2023.

What makes Nawrocki’s lead concerning is that if he goes on to win the race, it will be a major blow to Tusk’s reform agenda, and the Polish parliament would find it difficult to pass any reforms before the 2027 parliamentary elections, also affecting the popularity of the government.

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A surprising lead

According to The Guardian, Nawrocki’s lead was a dramatic reversal of projections, the initial exit poll appeared to show Trzaskowski would edge the contest with a 0.6 per cent advantage. The results of the opinion polls even went on to prompt Trzaskowski to declare victory on stage at his campaign headquarters.

“We’ve won!” he announced to whoops and cheers from the crowd. “This is truly a special moment in Poland’s history. I am convinced that it will allow us to move forward and focus on the future,” he said. However, the celebration eventually proved to be premature.

Meanwhile, during a speech at his own campaign headquarters, Nawrocki did not concede, saying he remained confident he would win when all the votes were counted. “We will win and save Poland,” he said. “We must win tonight.” According to official results overnight, with ballots counted at nearly four-fifths of polling stations, Nawrocki had 52.7 per cent to Trzaskowski’s 47.3 per cent.

The full results are expected to be announced on Monday morning, and the standings could change as more votes are counted. However, the pollster Ipsos claimed its final poll had a margin of error of just 0.5 per cent for each candidate’s totals.

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What are they bringing to the table?

During the election campaign, the two men offered very different visions of Poland. Trzaskowski, the pro-European, progressive mayor of Warsaw, supports the liberalisation of abortion laws and the introduction of civil partnerships for LGBTQ couples.

Meanwhile, Nawrocki, a historian and former amateur boxer, has firmly rejected these moves and would probably veto any moves to implement them if elected. It is the presidential power of veto that makes the result of the race extremely crucial.

It is pertinent to note that the run-off came after neither candidate achieved more than 50 per cent of votes in a crowded first-round voting two weeks ago. The winner would ultimately replace the outgoing president, PiS ally Andrzej Duda, who will step down in August after completing two terms. Tusk was already facing a hard time in bringing reforms, given that he had to deal with an ideologically different president.

While the presidential role is largely ceremonial in Poland, it does have some influence over foreign and defence policy, as well as the critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a 60 per cent majority in parliament, which Tusk’s government does not have. Hence, a Nawrocki win would prolong the political deadlock.