Poland presidential election: Can Trump decide Maga vs mayor battle in Warsaw?

Poland is bracing for a pivotal presidential election on Sunday that has become a symbolic clash between pro-European centrism and MAGA-style populism. In a nail-biting race that could reshape Poland’s domestic and international trajectory, the centrist mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski is locked in a dead heat with the right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki.

A Politico poll released earlier this week shows the race on a razor’s edge, with Trzaskowski narrowly ahead by a single point—47% to Nawrocki’s 46%. While the margin is statistically insignificant, the stakes are anything but.

At the heart of this contest is a broader ideological battle that reaches well beyond Poland’s borders. Trzaskowski, a liberal-leaning figure and key ally of center-right Prime Minister Donald Tusk, represents continuity with Tusk’s Brussels-friendly agenda. Nawrocki, by contrast, is a newcomer to electoral politics and the preferred candidate of Poland’s conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), now clinging to its last major lever of power.

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The presidency, largely ceremonial on paper, plays an outsized role in practice. The current president, Andrzej Duda also aligned with PiS has wielded his veto power repeatedly to block legislation from the Tusk government, especially reforms aimed at restoring judicial independence and repairing ties with the European Union. Trzaskowski’s victory would likely end this stalemate, paving the way for deeper EU integration and institutional overhaul.

Nawrocki, a historian by profession, has become the de facto torchbearer for Poland’s populist right. His campaign has championed nationalist rhetoric, traditionalist values, and a strong stance against immigration, rhetoric that has increasingly echoed the playbook of Donald Trump.

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That resemblance was made explicit this week when Kristi Noem, Trump’s former Homeland Security chief and a key surrogate in Europe, visited Poland to endorse Nawrocki. “Electing the right leader here ensures a strong American presence,” Noem said, invoking “Fort Trump”—a symbolic and potentially permanent U.S. military base in Poland—as a bulwark against Russian aggression. “This election is about security, sovereignty, and strength,” she declared.

Her remarks were interpreted by many as a direct attempt by Trump’s orbit to influence the Polish vote. In return, Nawrocki has signaled enthusiastic alignment with Trump’s worldview, pledging to be a “reliable transatlantic partner” while resisting EU overreach.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has framed the election as a referendum on Poland’s future as a liberal democracy. “We can either move forward with a modern, democratic Poland that plays a strong role in Europe, or return to isolation and division,” he told supporters during his final campaign rally in Warsaw.

For Trzaskowski, the race also carries personal significance. He came within a whisker of winning the presidency in 2020, losing narrowly to Duda. Now, with Duda term-limited and the political winds shifting, this is his second—and perhaps last—chance.

The outcome could determine not just the future of Polish politics but the balance of power in Europe. A win for Trzaskowski would mark a decisive turn toward the EU and liberal democratic values. A Nawrocki victory, on the other hand, would entrench a right-wing nationalist presidency, even as PiS’s parliamentary grip has slipped.

As voters head to the polls, the question looms large: Can Donald Trump’s influence tip the scales in Warsaw? In a nation torn between westward ambition and populist nostalgia, the answer may reverberate far beyond Poland’s borders.