Poland's presidential runoff: Voters face defining choice in high-stakes right vs liberal contest

Poland will hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday, 1st June, with a right-wing nationalist and a pro-European liberal going head-to-head in a campaign that might influence the future of one of NATO’s and the European Union’s most strategically significant members.

The vote comes amid rising regional tensions caused by Russia’s war in neighbouring Ukraine, security worries throughout Europe, and internal arguments over the rule of law.

The winner will succeed conservative incumbent Andrzej Duda, whose second term ends in summer. The majority of political power in Poland is concentrated in a government led by a prime minister and a parliament, although the president has the authority to veto legislation and influence foreign policy.

The voting on Sunday comes after a preliminary round on May 18, when conservative historian Karol Nawrocki received 29.54% of the vote and Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski received 31.36%. Eleven other candidates were disqualified.

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Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian with no political experience and no party affiliation, was chosen by Law and Justice as part of a push for a fresh start.

Poland was ruled by Law and Justice from 2015 to 2023, when Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist alliance took office.

Nawrocki currently heads the Institute of National Remembrance, which embraces nationalist historical narratives. He led efforts to topple monuments to the Soviet Red Army in Poland. Russia responded by putting him on a wanted list, according to Polish media reports.

US President Donald Trump, who met Nawrocki this month at the White House, released photos of the meeting. Nawrocki said Trump predicted his victory.

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic values. Many oppose abortion and LGBTQ+ visibility and say Nawrocki reflects the traditional values they grew up with.

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A common refrain from his supporters is that Nawrocki will restore “normality,” as they believe Trump has done. US flags appear at his rallies.

Nawrocki performed better in the first round than expected, an indication he was underestimated in the polling. But his quick political rise has not been without controversy, with reports of links to underworld figures whom he met while boxing or working as a hotel security guard in the past.

Nawrocki has also been linked to a scandal involving the acquisition of a Gdansk apartment from an elderly pensioner named Jerzy. Allegations suggest Nawrocki promised to care for Jerzy in return but failed to fulfill the commitment, leading the man to end up in a publicly funded retirement home.

His shifting explanations have raised questions about his transparency and credibility. After the scandal erupted he donated the apartment to a charity.

It recently emerged Nawrocki took part in a 2009 Gdansk hooligan brawl involving about 140 rival football fans, some later convicted of crimes. Nawrocki described the fight as a form of “noble" combat.

His behaviour during a presidential debate on Friday also generated a lot of discussion. At one point during the debate, while Trzaskowski spoke about plans for senior care, Nawrocki covered his mouth with one hand and put something in his mouth. He first said it was gum, but later said it was a nicotine pouch.

His critics say all of these things make him unfit to represent Poland as the head of state. His supporters dismiss the allegations as politically motivated, and it is not clear if any of the allegations will hurt him.

Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw’s mayor and a close ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. A deputy leader of the pro-EU Civic Platform, he has been prominent in national politics for years. This is his second presidential bid after narrowly losing to Duda in 2020.

Supporters credit him with modernizing Warsaw through infrastructure, public transit expansion and cultural investments. He is widely seen as pro-European, pragmatic and focused on aligning Poland more closely with EU norms, especially on democratic governance and judicial independence.

Fluent in several foreign languages including English and French, he is praised by supporters but mocked by opponents, who see those skills as a sign of elitism and taunt him with the nickname “Bonjour” at right-wing rallies.

His right-wing critics accusing him of being willing to sell out Poland’s sovereignty to the EU and embracing green economic policies, which they believe are harmful to Poland’s traditional reliance on coal as an energy source.

His open support for LGBTQ+ rights, including appearances at Pride parades, has made him a polarizing figure in conservative and rural areas. His conservative critics feel he is out of touch with traditional Polish values and say his administration has mismanaged aspects of Warsaw’s real estate and budget.

Voter fatigue is another challenge. Some centrist and progressive voters have expressed disappointment with the Tusk government’s failure to deliver on key promises, particularly on easing Poland’s near-total abortion ban.

Trzaskowski has sought to reinvigorate that base, leading a major Warsaw rally on Sunday that aimed to mobilize voters.

He has framed the election as a choice between a European future and authoritarian nationalism. His campaign stresses democratic institutions, EU cooperation and women’s rights, messages that resonate more in cities than in rural areas.