Iran's leadership largely intact, not at risk of complete collapse 'any time soon', says US intelligence

US intelligence indicates that the Iranian regime is not at risk of a complete collapse and that it is likely to stay intact for the foreseeable future, despite relentless US and Israeli bombardment.

A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” ‌a source told Reuters. 

While Trump has suggested that he will end the conflict “soon, finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.

What does the report say?

The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion ​of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the US and Israeli strikes.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials also believe that there is no certainty over when the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse.

At the same time, US and Israeli strikes have not just killed Khamenei but also eliminated dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Despite this, the new intelligence report suggests that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.

Mojtaba’s succession opposed by many

President Donald Trump is not the only person who is against Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as the next Supreme Leader of Iran. His own father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly wrote in his will that he did not wish his son to succeed him as the Supreme Leader.

According to a report by the New York Post, senior Khamenei did not think his son was a suitable candidate for the top leadership position and therefore did not want him to succeed.

Khosro Isfahani, research director at the opposition group National Union for Democracy, told the outlet, “In Khamenei’s will, he explicitly asked Mojtaba not to be named as successor.”

Isfahani said that the late Supreme Leader had reservations about Mojtaba’s political acumen and was wary about his stature as a leader. Iran picks its Supreme Leader after the Assembly of Experts holds a vote on it.