Why Jayalalithaa is way ahead of BJP, DMK in Tamil Nadu

In Tamil Nadu, chief minister J Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK continues to lead and has bettered her voteshare in a triangular contest with BJP and DMK fronts. Compared to her February voteshare of 30 per cent, the estimated share in March has risen to 32 per cent. The voteshare of the DMK and the BJP have shown dramatic changes: while the DMK-front’s share has slipped from 27 to 24, the share of BJP plus allies rose from 19 to 22. The Congress is at the fourth position with a voteshare of 12 per cent, which is two points better than in February.

The tracker poll also shows that in the northern and southern areas of the state, there is a close contest between the AIADMK, BJP and DMK fronts, while in the Kaveri delta, AIADMK is the leader with DMK coming second.  In the western parts of the state, the Congress is doing well. The poll also indicates that women prefer AIADMK much more than men while the latter prefer the BJP. The gender difference in the case of DMK is not considerable.

A large part of the voteshare of the BJP seems to be coming from the younger voters while AIADMK voters are mostly older. While the highest voteshare for AIADMK (36 per cent) came from the people of 46 years or older, in the case of the BJP, bulk (31 per cent) of the votes came from the 18-25 age group. In terms of the caste votes, it’s not surprising that the Vanniarys are mostly with the BJP front (36 per cent) - possibly because the Vanniyars party PMK is BJP’s alliance partner - while the Dalits are equally split between the AIADMK and the DMK - 33 and 30 per cent respectively. It’s interesting to note that the Dravidian parties still have the trust of the Dalits - about 66 per cent of the Dalits would like the Dravidian parties to win.

Contrary to the AIADMK supporters’s widespread call for Jayalalithaa as prime minister, only 17 per cent of the respondents have chosen her as their candidate. Their primary choice is still Narendra Modi (24 per cent). Rahul Gandhi is way below at 9 per cent. However, more people said that Jaya would make a better prime minister than those who said she won’t. Majority of the AIADMK voters also said she would make a good prime minister. There is an increase in the number of people who thought Jayalalithaa can be India’s prime minister compared to the poll in February.

In terms of Jayalalithaa’s performance as a chief minister, more (59 Vs 9) people supported her decision to release the convicts of the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case and more people were satisfied with her governance (49 Vs 7). Price rise, electricity and corruption were the top three election issues in the state. It’s very clear that there is no anti-incumbency in the state with the majority satisfied with the governance and most of them backing her political decisions. Such a lack of a single issue that the opposition can use against her and the multi-cornered fights will certainly favour Jayalalithaa.