What the bookies say: BJP in Rajasthan, MP; Kejriwal to finish third in Delhi

By Sandipan Sharma

Jaipur: If you can’t wait till 8 December for election results, call PK Tawari (name not changed).

Tawari, a middle-aged man from Rajasthan’s Shekhawati region, likes to call himself an election analyst. But bluntly put, he is the region’s biggest bookie. Tawari, like many others in the area, knows everything.

Who is forming the next government in Rajasthan? How many seats will Arvind Kejriwal’s party win? Will the Congress improve its tally in Madhya Pradesh? Bookies of Rajasthan answer every question. (Note for the impatient reader: Answers to all these questions appear at the end).

For the uninitiated the word bookie may conjure the image of a shady man in a seedy room operating a few dozen cellphones. That description fits the cricket bookie. In comparison, the election satoria (bookie) is a venerable, omnipresent entity in Rajasthan. He is respected for his material wealth and political intellect.

He is found in every corner of the medieval towns of Shekhawati, comprising the desert districts of Sikar, Jhunjhunu and Churu. He plies his business from the bazaars of Phalodi, Jodhpur, the chowks of Bikaner and the chaupars of Jaipur.

Bookies generally get it right. In February this year, they had predicted 115 seats for Narendra Modi in Gujarat. The final tally was close. “We get the overall trend right on most occasions. The forecast for individual seats is correct in 70 percent cases,” says Tawari.

His confidence is steeped in logic. His madness is based on a method. Election betting isn’t whimsical prophesy. It is desi psephology.

How it works: In Shekhawati and Phalodi, the twin epicenters in Rajasthan, every village has a bookie and several clients. The village bookie is connected to a bigger bookie in the nearest town, who, in turn, is connected to an even bigger guy in the nearest district.

The result of this betting chain is that an average bookie in a district gets connected to hundreds of punters in every constituency. This clientele forms his sample size. Depending on the trend among punters, a bookie makes up his mind about the outcome of a contest. This forms the basis of the odds offered by him for an individual seat and for the entire state.

All bookies are connected through cellphones. They exchange notes almost every minute. Since betting is a 24X7 activity, the rates keep changing, reflecting the latest trend. Betting, you can say, is like a survey that gets updated every minute.

Why everybody bets: Election is a good time for making a quick buck. So, almost everybody in Shekhawati bets depending on their financial prowess. “Kya bhaav, lagaya, khaya (what’s the rate, I accept, I bet),” are the most popular hash tags in every town and village.

Sometimes the candidates themselves hedge their risks. There is this famous story about a BJP candidate from Sikar bets on his own loss. The logic: “If I win, the money won’t matter. If I lose, I still win something.”

Candidates bet also to manipulate the market. Since floating voters get influenced by satta rates, many candidates try to influence them by pumping money into the market. But this game is played only by those caught in a tight contest and by those with deep pockets.

Sometimes political parties select candidates on the basis of satta rates. Those considered favourite by the market often get the nod ahead of their laggard rivals. Tawari, for instance, was consulted several times by a top leader before finalizing candidates. His advice shattered many dreams.

Predictions or 2013: Who is winning in Rajasthan? The BJP is likely to win 114-116 seats out of 200. The Congress will be down to 62-64 and others will win 22-23.

Who is ahead in Madhya Pradesh? The BJP will manage to win 122—124 seats. Jyotiraditya Scindia’s efforts will help Congress touch 78-80.

What will happen to Arvind Kejriwal? His party would be No 3 with 8-10 seats. The BJP will form the next government with 32-34 seats.