TMC 'tough decision' today: Will Mamata really quit UPA?

Will Mamata Banerjee pull out of the government today?

A 72-hour deadline for the government to roll back its reform decisions or face ’tough action’ by the TMC has passed, and now all eyes are on Mamata to see what she will do next.

According to reports, there is some dissent within the TMC, with some leaders divided over whether to support the government or not. As of now, the party is considering three options:

* To completely withdraw support to the government * To pull out its Ministers and provide outside support to the UPA * To keep talking tough but little else

And everyone, it seems, is expecting her to go ahead with option three. The UPA has said time and again that it is ‘confident’ that the TMC will not pull out of the government.

" I am fully confident that Mamata is with us. She is a valuable ally of UPA. She doesnt want the government to fall. She has made that very clear", said Congress leader PC Chacko in an interview with CNN-IBN.

The BJP feels no differently. “Whenever corruption, scams and loot take place, some parties stand in the name of secularism. Some parties appear to be united because of some personal selfishness either it will be some case or package or some other reason at the Centre over the introduction of Foreign Direct Investment in multi-brand retail and hike in diesel prices,” said BJP spokesperson BJP leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi to ANI news.

The fact is that at this point, Mamata simply doesn’t have enough strength to pose a serious threat to the UPA government. The TMC has 19 seats in Parliament. Even in the extreme situation of a complete pull-out, the UPA can turn to either Mayawati’s BSP which has 21 seats, or Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP which has 22 seats.

The Samajawadi Party has already indicated that it has no intention of seeing early elections. Samajawadi Party leader Tasleem Ahmed Rehmani told CNN-IBN that the while BJP would like nothing better than early elections, the party was overestimating its chances, and dismissed the possibility that the NDA was a viable alternative to the UPA.

“Why should we try to topple the government now?” he said.

The general feeling is that Mamata needs the UPA more than the UPA needs her.

An editorial in the Times of India for instance, calls on the TMC leader to rethink her stand.

“While Mamata’s entitled to take a call either way, she should consider the political consequences. The last time she played hardball on the presidential polls, it backfired. This time too, she’ll end up the loser”, it said.