On Thursday, as the major exit polls predict their results for Manipur Assembly Election, one clear takeaway is that BJP is enjoying an ascendancy in north-eastern states. The Congress party's 15-year rule Manipur seems to be coming to an end, as exit polls forecast the BJP will likely win the 60-strong Manipur Assembly election.
The CVoter exit poll predicted historic gains for the BJP in Manipur, giving them between 25 and 31 seats, while estimating that the Congress would nab between 17 and 23 seats.
The CVoter's projection about BJP's ascendancy proves to be correct, this would be a big win for the party which may still fall short of the magic figure of 31. The same party had failed to open its accounts in the 2012 elections. However to form government in the state, the saffron unit might need the support of Naga People's Front (NPF). Though BJP chose contest solo in the polls and contest in all 60 seats, the party may just seek NPF help in forming a government and achieve the magic number of 31.
Representational image. PTI
CVoter predictions for Manipur, based on a sample size of 1330, predicting a 36 percent positive swing in vote share compared to 2012 figures. According to the agency, while BJP may witness 33.6 per cent swing in its favour, Congress votes will witness a 12.9 per cent erosion. BJP's positive swing is likely to come at the expense of other politics parties whose combined vote share will go down by 20.6 per cent, according to CVoter. Region wise, the BJP is expected to have swept Outer Manipur and the New Districts, and its inroads in the Inner Manipur constituencies has clearly cut into the Congress' seat share.
However the India Today - Axis My India poll estimates that the Congress will win 30 to 36 seats in Manipur and the BJP would win between 16 and 22 seats.
Today's Chanakya exit poll gives the Congress 15 seats. The Manipur Assembly term ends on 18 March. Twenty seats have been reserved for SC/ST aspirants.
Firstpost is now on WhatsApp. For the latest analysis, commentary and news updates, sign up for our WhatsApp services. Just go to Firstpost.com/Whatsapp and hit the Subscribe button.
Updated Date: Mar 16, 2017 09:00:36 IST