Tamil Nadu gives high five to Jayalalithaa, DMK demolished

The winners of Elections 2011 are now very clear – except in Kerala. In West Bengal, it’s Mamata Banerjee all the way.  In Tamil Nadu, it’s Jaya He! In Assam, the Congress, after a sluggish start, is heading towards a third term. But in Kerala, the results could go either way.

In Tamil Nadu, the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK Front is heading for a landslide, though a CNN-IBN post-poll survey had predicted only a small lead. If her alliance gets a two-thirds majority, as seems likely, she will not need any of her allies. She will be queen. If the trend holds, it means that the 2G scam has indeed had enough of an effect on voters to damage the electoral prospects of M Karunanidhi’s DMK alliance, which has already sent one party ex-minister (A Raja to jail). Score: ADMK 104, DMK 36.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool-Congress alliance appears to have consolidated the anti-Left vote and is heading well past the two-thirds mark. If this continues, Mamata Banerjee will not need the Congress to form a government. The Bullwhip Effect is working, and marginal Left voters have abandoned their traditional parties. At last count at 10.15 am, the score was Trinamool 169, Left 66. These are leads and wins, and some numbers could change as counting progresses.

In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) lost its early lead as the UDF scored gains in the Muslim-dominated areas. At last count, the UDF was forging ahead, with a score of 73 leads to the LDF’s 64. Earlier in the morning, the LDF was leading marginally, but this trend has been reversing as counting progressed. Seventy is the half-way mark

In Assam, Tarun Gogoi is set head his third government, as the Congress posted early gains. The trends indicate that he could well get a majority on his own, decimating the AGP and BJP in the process. The state obviously is in no mood to tolerate sectarian issues at this stage – which is the kind of issues raised by the AGP and BJP. Score: Congress 49, Others (including AIUDF) 35. AGP-BJP 5.