Election tracker live: Modi may be evolving away from Hindutva politics

9.52 pm: Modi may be evolving away from Hindutva politics

Despite being called a polariser, Modi has been talking about development. Has he given up Hindutva politics?

“He doesn’t consider hate politics of the past of any use to him today. the hate factor may be there amongst Muslims. But Modi himself has found that hate doesn’t last in the long run,” says Dipankar Gupta.

Sandeep Shastri says, “The fact that 35% in UP would like to see him as PM has an important story in it. He is evoking very strong support.”

But will this make Modi contest from UP?

“It would be very prudent on his part if he contests from Varanasi or eastern UP,” says Dasgupta.

9.45 pm: ‘Modi both about hope and fear’

Has Narendra Modi been able to reinvent himself?

“Modi is like Indira Gandhi, at times he evokes fear and at times he evokes hope. The younger people who don’t remember 2002, look at him as a harbinger of hope, unlike Mulayam who only talks of fear,” says Ramachandra Guha.

Ramachandra Guha says, “In 2002 Modi spoke of regional pride. In today’s context he combines hope with protest against a particular order. That is why he is gaining currency.”

9.34 pm: Modi also about fear, says Manini Chatterjee

“We are likely to see localised consolidation of Muslims in UP. Using alarmism in an election is to my mind slightly dubious,” says Swapan Dasgupta.

Meanwhile, Manini Chatterjee says, “It is not just Muslims, but many sections fear him. There are a lot of non-Muslims who are not enamoured by the Modi paradigm. He also evokes the word fear among people.”

9.27 pm: Has UP moved beyond traditional caste politics?

Dipankar Gupta says, “The idea of castes has been overdone. Mayawati in 2009 appealed beyong caste. She talked about development.”

“Where have we heard caste in Akhilesh, Modi speeches?” he asks.

“The south overcame caste politcs long ago,” says Ramachandra Guha and adds, “If UP is moving on for whatever reason we must welcome it.”

9.19 pm: Trends show clear advantage for BJP in UP

In UP the BJP has seen the highest ever rise in UP with seat shares of 41-49, says the survey.

“Given the fact that there is a four corner contest. The trend as of now shows clear advantage for BJP. 38% vote share is huge for a race between four parties,” says Sandeep Shastri.

What explains the change from the Ram Mandir era?

Ramachandra Guha says, “The quantitude of the change is stunning. Uttar Pradesh was always an important state for BJP and they have gained some lost ground. It shows that if the Congress and Mayawati go for a pre-poll alliance, they can see some improvement.”

Meanwhile, Swapan Dasgupta says, “There are combination of factors. The revulsion towards identity politics. Modi has been talking of only opportunities of development.”

9.10 pm: Akhilesh Yadav is a big let down, shows survey

Manini Chatterjee says, “Akhilesh Yadav did really well in the first couple of years. He said he will change things. Now he has proved to be such a flop, it is a tragedy for Akhilesh.”

Swapan Dasgupta said that the poll results suggests that the SP government is not only unpopular, but also brazen.

But has Akhilesh Yadav been a huge led down since people expected much from him?

“It is the failure of his party too. He had no prior administrative experience, which is the same as Rahul Gandhi. Hence the well entrenched, crafty Raja Bhaiyas and Azam Khans will manipulate him,” says Ramachandra Guha.

9.04 pm: Riots a terrible blot on SP, says Ramachandra Guha

Like the Centre, there seems to be an anti-incumbecy in the key state of UP.

Sandeep Shastri says, “The unpopularity of both the state and the Centre could help the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.”

Is it because of the government’s failure of maintain communal harmoney?

“It was not the riots per say, but the aftermath. It is was the shamefull way in which the victims were treated. It is a terrible blot on the SP,” says Ramachandra Guha.

8.57 pm: UP unhappy with SP govt, BJP gains ground

The bad handling of the Muzaffarnagar riots in Uttar Pradesh by the Akhilesh Yadav led government may have given a chance for BJP to rise again in the state. To top it off, the Saifai Mahotsav and the death of riot victims may have people of the state angrier at the government.

A poll conducted by CSDS for the Lokniti-IBN poll tracker has found if the Lok Sabha elections are held now, the BJP will get 38 percent of the vote share leaving the SP and Bahujan Samaj Party way behind with 17 percent each. The Congress will be tottering at 16 percent.

8.45 pm: Congress votes shares drop in Haryana and Punjab

The survey has revealed that Congress’s vote share has dropped to 34% and the BJP has gained with 20% vote share. In Punjab if elections were held today, the Congress vote share is falling as well with 27% vote share and also BJP has gained vote share this time with 34% vote share.

Meanwhile the AAP has had some gain in Haryana, reveals the survey.

8.41 pm: Modi strongest in Rajasthan after Gujarat

Dipankar Gupta says, “Because the Rajasthan has ousted the earlier Congress government that Modi seems to be a star character. He is the strongest in Rajasthan.”

“In case of Vasunadhara Raje, she welcomed Modi in a way unlike in any other state,” Manini Chatterjee says.

Sandeep Shastri says, “It was the Modi-Raje combination that clicked with the people.”

When it came to AAP, which scored low in Rajasthan, Shastri says he won’t underestimate it.

Dipankar Gupta also agreed that, “It was only in Rajasthan that Raje echoed Modi.”

8. 36 pm: Rajasthan a dominant state for BJP, says survey

In Rajasthan 21% have said that BJP’s victory goes to Narendra Modi, 11% the credit goes to Vasundhara Raje making it clear that the Modi magic has worked in Rajasthan.

The survey has found that BJP will get 54% of the voteshare if the polls were held today, the Congress is literally being wiped out, making it a dominant state for BJP.

8.32 pm: Cong future bleak in Rajasthan as well

In Rajasthan the Congress future seems to be bleak. However Sachin Pilot may be able to take things around in the state for the Congress. But going by the landslide vicotry of BJP in Assembly elections, the chances of a Congress win is tough.

The poll conducted by CSDS for the Lokniti-IBN poll tracker has found If elections are to be held now, the Congress party’s vote share in the state would fall dramatically from 47 percent in the 2009 election to an estimated 33 percent now, a rapid decline even from a July 2013 survey when the vote share was pegged at 44 percent.

8.24 pm: Want of change may be wiping out Cong in Delhi

Congress dominated urban India in 2009. What has changed now?

“The economy growth story has failed. Everyone wants a change,” says Manini Chatterjee.

She says that people have decided that Congress is not the party of the future at the moment.

“The three generation of urban depth has helped Kejriwal,” says Dipankar Gupta.

But does Kejriwal Congress to bring down his government before the Lok Sabha elections?

Bhupendra Choubey says there is no doubt. “Kejriwal says she will act against Sheila Dikshit on the CWG scam. If her reall does that, what is the option left before the Congress?”

8.17 pm: ‘Kejriwal is the attraction in Delhi’

Are the numbers in favour of AAP surprising?

Dipankar Gupta says, “Most of urban areas of India has changed because they are now more educated. That is why the AAP is so attractive. Kejriwal is an educated person who gave up riches to go to rags unlike other politicians.”

“People are hoping that Kejriwal will do something better in the next few months,” says Gupta.

8.13 pm: BJP needs bigger ideas than Kejriwal, says Swapan Dasgupta

Bhupendra Choubey says, “When was the last time you say a CM sitting with the people on street. Kejriwal seems to be connecting with people and touching a chord, like Modi.”

But why is there a swing toward AAP, while in the rest of India it is swinging towards BJP?

Sandeep Shastri says, “You see a swing towards BJP only where they are in power.”

Also, Dasgupta says that it is because Kejriwal has been able to dominate the mindspace of the people. “Kejriwal has an idea, unless the BJP comes up with a bigger idea in the context of Delhi it will be in trouble,” he says

8.07 pm: Delhi may vote differently for LS polls

Meanwhile Manini Chatterjee was of the opinion that while Delhiites may like Arvind Kejriwal as PM, things might be different during Lok Sabha elections.

Dipankar Gupta says that a large number of people may vote for Kejriwal. “His party looks much more viable today,” Gupta says.

8.05 pm: AAP edge won’t go easily, says Swapan Dasgupta

Sandeep Shastri says it is clearly seems to have the AAP wave during the time when the polls was done

However, Swapan Dasgupta says that the honeymoon period of AAP may be longer than we think.

“I don’t think that the edge that they have will go away so easily,” he says.

8.00 pm: 74% of Delhi says they are satisfied with AAP

Arvind Kejriwal, for a person quite new in the political scene, got brilliant results and is not the CM.The numbers in favour of him and his Aam Aadmi Party, in a poll conducted by CSDS for the Lokniti-IBN poll tracker are almost gushing in their support. A massive 74 percent of Delhi’s polled respondents say they are satisfied with the performance of the AAP government over the last few weeks, while 76 percent say that they are satisfied with Kejriwal’s performance as the Chief Minister for Delhi.

8.00 pm: Congress takes a beating in Hindi-heartland as well

After taking a look at east, south and west India, the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker for Lok Sabha elections today looks at which party will fare better in north India if the polls were held right now. And like the other states, except for Karnataka, it seems that in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh too the Congress has taken a beating.

Meanwhile in the national capital it is Arvind Kejriwal who seems to have captured the fancy of the Delhiites, but this was of course, before the dharna.

What seems to be a death knell for the Congress and its allies is that the important state of UP with 80 Lok Sabha seats, is leaning towards the BJP.

The Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party government, at the moment, is not really making the people of UP happy and Mulayam should be a worried man.