Delhi polls 2015: Kejriwal's huge mandate means he has to deliver, not offer excuses

It is now certain that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is not just going to form a government in Delhi with a majority of its own, but with an overwhelming win. The exit polls had predicted a range of results from a basic majority to a landslide win at the other end. It is this extreme that is now coming true.

So, Paanch Saal Kejriwal will come to be, with Arvind Kejriwal as the next Chief Minister of Delhi. Kejriwal Version 2.0 – the one who ditched the “bhagoda” tag and his 49-day misadventure behind him – now has no reason to blame anybody else if he does not deliver.

His promise is his pitfall: like Modi after the 2014 mandate, he has no excuses for not delivering. Great expectations have to be met.

This article will look both at the election result itself, and what Kejriwal and AAP must do to make good on this mandate.

The Delhi results are a clear demonstration of the “bullwhip effect” at work, something normal opinion polls tend to miss. Only one exit poll got anywhere near the mandate of 50-plus seats that is now a certainty for AAP.

In a media-driven, over-communicated Delhi landscape, a small initial positive trend for AAP got converted into a roaring mandate as each subsequent poll showed the AAP holding on and gaining in strength, even while the BJP was gaining less (or slipping, but we did not spot it).

The “bullwhip effect” magnifies an incipient trend and blows it out of proportion as the voter starts getting more information on which way the wind may be blowing. We saw the bullwhip effect in UP in 2012, in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in 2011, and (to a lesser extent) in the Lok Sabha elections of April-May 2014. We are now seeing it again in Delhi. In spades. This is what analysts often fail to notice as they look at party reputations and stature instead of watching the shift in ground conditions.

The exit polls were closer to the mark, but even at this stage at least one or two polls were indicating a close fight between AAP and BJP – something that was never on. Some polls suggested that BJP would be defeated, but not humbled. But it has indeed been humbled.

AAP got a head-start with the party announcing its candidates months in advance and beginning its campaigning even before the elections were announced in early February. The BJP, in contrast, was focusing on other states in the glib assumption that Narendra Modi would turn the tide at the last minute in Delhi. The BJP clearly goofed big-time.

But while the BJP can introspect and lick its self-inflicted wounds, it is AAP that we need to look at.

In many ways, AAP’s problems in Delhi, given its huge mandate, will be similar to Modi’s after May 2014: excessive expectations.

The voter is clearly not happy about giving split mandates, which allows parties to claim they didn’t have enough legislative strength to do what they promised.

In a sense, the Delhi voter has told Kejriwal, “we trust you to deliver. Now, don’t offer excuses.”

Unfortunately, this is seldom the case. A majority does not automatically mean a blank cheque to rule how one pleases and deliver on promises according to the manifesto.

The BJP found out that even with a Lok Sabha majority, it had to face an opposition majority in the Rajya Sabha that will not end even in 2019 – time for the next general election.

Similarly, AAP will find that it can pass laws, but it will still need to align itself with Modi’s government in Delhi, which controls several important things – from the police to the Delhi Development Authority to many other things. Kejriwal can choose the easy option to blame the centre for his problems, but this will ultimately not wash. Delhi does not want excuses.

Ideally, this could change if the centre grants full statehood to Delhi, and transfers many powers to the state.

But even if this happens smoothly – which one can’t be sure the Modi government will do – AAP’s promises will not be easy to keep.

Arvind Kejriwal will have to cut his coat according to the cloth. Delhi is not blessed with endless resources despite being the most spilt of metros, complete with central subsidies.

In government, Kejriwal will have to woo the same businessmen that he was busy rubbishing as corrupt and crooked when he was the challenger. While there is no doubt that cronyism has been rampant and a couple of businessmen need to be sent to jail for this, a permanent sense of antagonism between government and business will not work. Kejriwal will not be able to create growth and jobs this way.

Secondly, Kejriwal’s calling card is anti-corruption. This is actually his biggest challenge. Wisdom demands that he move away from mindless moral posturing and start looking at corruption as a systemic issue. Corruption exists not just because we are a venal people overall, but because we have created a crony socialist system that ensures corruption at all points in the chain. Corruption happens partly because governments promise endless goodies to people, and corrupt people feed on the udders of this nanny state.

But Kejriwal has promised his own deluge of electoral goodies, from free water to 50 percent power tariff cuts, from all kinds of new schools to free hospitals. He needs to come down to earth even if he finds that Delhi can afford some of them. The reason is simple: what is free will be wasted and create demands for more freebies – and more corruption. You can have cheap water up to a minimum amount, and higher charges for higher usage, but a scarce resource cannot be made totally free. The UPA converted everything into a right, and AAP is promising the same (right to water, etc). This way lies disaster. Freebies encourage corruption. Sensible pricing reduces them.

Kejriwal also needs to understand that corruption, when it has become systemic, is not just about bad people, but almost all people. So sending spycams to trap crooks is not really a solution. It will set people against people. Systemic corruption, if handled unsystemically, will lead to disaster. Every peon who takes a Rs 100 bribe to move or file, or a cop who takes a small amount to file an FIR, is effectively part of the system and benefits from it. The bribe-taker is also the aam aadmi – and usually not a rich crook. If this system is not tackled systemically – through transparency, better procedures, openness, etc – Kejriwal will find that he has one set of people against another.

To assess the gaps between AAP’s promises and potential to deliver, one can read this earlier assessment of the AAP manifesto in Firstpost .

Kejriwal’s real challenge is similar to Modi’s after May 2014: excessive expectations. But Modi got a mere mandate. Kejriwal has got an overwhelming one. His fall can be greater if he does not meet the greatest of great expectations.