Delhi exit polls reveal BJP's Kiran Bedi-sized error, but it's really Modi-Shah's fault

All the major exit polls in the Delhi elections have predicted that the Aam Aadmi Party is headed for an outright majority in the Delhi assembly polls. The numbers vary from 35 seats (one short of a majority) in the India Today-Cicero survey, all the way to 53, as estimated by the Axis poll. The one outlier in the mix is the little known Data Mineria, which is the only poll to predict a BJP win.

Unless the exit polls are wildly wrong, the writing on the wall seems to be clear:  Get ready for ‘paanch saal’ of Arvind Kejriwal. That’s five years of Kejriwal being a thorn in the side of the Modi government. As pointed out by Firstpost editor R Jagannathan , “Delhi is not any other state. A loss here will always cost the BJP a lot of embarrassment and remain a permanent distraction. Delhi is the most media-intense city in India, with both foreign and domestic media playing a huge role in shaping opinion and perceptions”.

Last night, on television talk shows, political pundits offered a wide range of reasons for the possible BJP defeat: the decision not to hold elections soon after the Lok Sabha victory; Modi fatigue; AAP’s support among lower income voters which BJP failed to counter. Other theories ranged from a failure of Amit Shah’s reverse polarisation strategy to the fact that the negative campaign the party ran against AAP actually ended up working to its advantage.

However, few named the elephant in the room, ie naming Kiran Bedi as its CM candidate. Let’s not forget that the BJP was still ahead in opinion surveys just before she was picked to lead the Delhi campaign.

Quite apart from the fact that Bedi’s nomination sparked off further unrest in the already divided Delhi state unit of the party, it also effectively changed the narrative from Modi vs Kejriwal to Kejriwal vs Bedi. The BJP gave Kejriwal a critical boost by offering him an opponent he could outshine. Kejriwal had carefully refrained from attacking the Prime Minister in any of his rallies precisely because he knew – from bitter experience in Varanasi in 2014 – that taking on the PM was a recipe for disaster. But by naming Bedi, Delhi voters were given a choice between two would-be CMs – and they seem to have decisively made their decision.

In fact when the elections were first announced for Delhi, AAP courted controversy by saying that Delhi wanted Kejriwal for CM and Modi for PM, a nod to his immense popularity. They even started a hashtag which trended on Twitter until the BJP raised all hell. Although the BJP later brought Modi down to campaign for them, and despite his last minute, barbed attacks on the party, the fact remained that Bedi not Modi would rule Delhi if BJP won.

However, Modi was no longer the underdog looking to overturn the establishment, but securely ensconced at the Centre. The drive to ensure his party’s victory was no longer quite as urgent even among those who voted for him in 2014. Kiran Bedi, on the other hand, proved too new and too politically inexperienced to convince voters who are on the fence. She was barely comfortable with the state unit of the party, and to throw her right into the heat of election campaigning a month before Election Day was unfair. Used to giving orders in her previous avatars as an IPS officer, Bedi didn’t seem to know how to deal with party politics where leaders are constantly jostling for power.

And that she was cast by her rivals as a ‘scapegoat’, picked not to win but to insulate Modi from defeat, hardly helped her cause.

Narendra Modi, who had to overcome opposition from extremely powerful quarters to occupy the BJP throne, ought to have known better. He owed his ascension to the BJP rank-and-file whose unstinting support allowed him to humble party patriarch LK Advani. Was it not then unwise for Modi and Amit Shah to ignore these very workers and foist Bedi upon them in an unilateral decision?

Be as it may, Bedi has already said that she will take full responsibility should the BJP lose. In this too, the party does not stand to gain. Kejriwal’s ‘scapegoat’ theory is sure to find a lot more takers if BJP continues to protect Shah-Modi at the expense of a candidate they picked. Last night, guests and anchors were already accusing the party of falling into the Congress trap of insulating the leader at the expense of the party.. And that’s the last thing Modi will want: any sentence that compare him to the Gandhis.

So it may be time for the Modi-Shah team to step up to the plate and put the responsibility where it belongs, which is squarely on their shoulders.