Bihar exit polls live: NDTV exit poll puts BJP+ ahead of Grand Alliance with 120-130 seats

NDTV exit poll puts BJP+ ahead of Grand Alliance with 120-130 seats

#BiharElections2015: NDTV exit poll puts BJP+ ahead with 120-130 seats, Grand Alliance in 105-115 range pic.twitter.com/CynDrRyKK4

— NDTV (@ndtv) November 6, 2015

It is an NDA win if NDTV numbers are to go by

NDTV exit poll: Forecast for phase 5 with 57 seats #TheBiharExitPoll #BiharElections2015 pic.twitter.com/JVHVby6zOE

— NDTV (@ndtv) November 6, 2015

NDTV numbers bring good news for BJP+

So now the numbers for the fourth phase are out and NDTV is clearly giving it to the BJP. 

NDTV exit poll: Forecast for phase 4 with 55 seats#TheBiharExitPoll #BiharElections2015 pic.twitter.com/KLfWCuQJVO

— NDTV (@ndtv) November 6, 2015

NDTV numbers for first 3 phases: 61 to JD(U)+ and 67 to BJP+ from the 131 seats

So far NDTV exit polls have revealed the numbers for the first three phases. And like several other exit polls, there seems to be a neck and neck race with Grand Alliance getting 61 seats and NDA getting 67 seats of the 131 seats.

NDTV predictions for Phase 3 of Bihar polls

NDTV predicts BJP win in Phase 2 of Bihar polls

NDTV exit poll: Forecast for phase 2 with 32 seats#TheBiharExitPoll #BiharElections2015 pic.twitter.com/o3kEQ6J6i4

— NDTV (@ndtv) November 6, 2015

NDTV’s exit poll from Bihar shows the Grand Alliance winning phase 1. #TheBiharExitPoll #BiharElections2015 pic.twitter.com/S04UfckZAy

— NDTV (@ndtv) November 6, 2015

Watch Firstpost editors Ajay Singh and Akshaya Mishra discuss exit polls

http://av.firstpost.com/2015/11/203355_exit-poll_fp.mp4

Exit poll numbers in a chart

Tune in for counting day on 8 November 

Now that the exit polls are done its time to wait for 8 November when the actual result will be out. Tune in to Firstpost for another live blog with the latest updates of the day.

NDA will win 185, says Chirag Paswan

Right after the exit polls result came out on Thursday, LJP’s Chirag Paswan said that the NDA alliance will get 185 seats. 

“It is a very hypothetical situation when we talk about a hung assembly. We are winning 185 seats and NDA is forming the next government,” Paswan told India Today.  

“We are not in race for chief ministership,” he said on being asked if it is time for Ram Vilas Paswan to become CM after being in politics for 46 years.

Meanwhile on certain allegations on his party he said, “We didn’t sell tickets. These are wild allegations I don’t want to respond to. Why will our party stoop down to such level?"

Now, India Today-Cicero puts BJP+ nose length ahead of Grand Alliance

Here’s what the final seat projection of India Today-Cicero says: 

BJP+ : 111-127

JDU+: 110-124

Others: 4-10

Wait for India Today final figures

While Today’s Chanakya has given it to the BJP, the India Today- Cicero final numbers will be in within an hour. So state tuned.

The BJP narrative hasn’t changed since Lok Sabha polls

Watch the Periscope for latest analsys

LIVE on #Periscope: Live: Bihar exit poll 2015 https://t.co/IIrapEydnM

— Firstpost (@firstpost) November 5, 2015

Voting percentage prediction by Today’s Chanakya

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @AmitShah @narendramodi @BJP4India @Bihar_BJP
Vote Percentage
BJP+ 46% ± 3%
JDU+ 39% ± 3%
Others 15% ± 3%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

Get your quick poll analysis from this periscope video

LIVE on #Periscope: Live: Bihar exit poll 2015 https://t.co/zJQ10fxOQC

— Firstpost (@firstpost) November 5, 2015

Today’s Chanakya has proved right in earlier polls

Senior Editor Akshaya Mishra on Today’s Chanakya Numbers: Chankaya predicts 155 seats for the NDA. Its prediction is a break from the tedium of the neck-and-neck contest narrative in the exit polls. It throws a clear picture on what is believed to be a wave election. The organisation is known to stick its neck out while others tend to play safe. And it has proved right in earlier elections.

Why Today’s Chanakya figures will make the BJP happy

Editor-in-Chief BV Rao’s  take: Today’s Chanakya’s latest figures on the voting pattern of young India will warm the cockles of Narendra Modi and the BJP+. According to this data, BJP+ has claimed 45% share of the vote of those between 18 and 45. The grand alliance is behind on this at about 37 % share.

What a loss for the BJP would mean

Senior Editor Akshaya Mishra’s take if the BJP loses Bihar: Would the victory of the Mahagathbandhan mean a realignment of political forces at the national level? It’s possible. So far defensive, the anti-BJP forces are expected to get together with Nitish in the lead. An unannounced chief ministers’ alliance with Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal as the riveting point is already afoot. The political opposition to Modi from across the country is likely to get sharper.  Running Parliament and getting critical bills passed may get even more difficult. What if the Grand Alliance loses? Well, the political opposition to the BJP-led government may get even sharper. The Hindutva forces will feel more emboldened to carry out their agenda.  But Modi will emerge far stronger than before.

If Nitish wins, it will stop BJP wave

LIVE on #Periscope: Live: Bihar exit poll 2015 https://t.co/cH7Ol7dc3D

— Firstpost (@firstpost) November 5, 2015

Today’s Chanakya predicts NDA win in Bihar

Amid the predictions that it will be a close call in Bihar for both the NDA and the Grand Alliance, Today’s Chankaya gives it to the NDA

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @AmitShah @narendramodi @BJP4India
Seat Projection
BJP+: 155 ± 11 Seats
JDU+: 83 ± 9 Seats
Others:5 ± 3 Seats

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

More analysis on Exit polls

Firstpost Senior Editor Sandipan Sharma’s take on exit polls: Do not discount the fact that the BJP vote is concentrated in urban areas and the JD(U) alliance is evenly spread in villages. So, the exit polls may have got the overall vote percentage of the two alliances right but they may have missed the target while calculating the number of seats. 

Only about 12 per cent voters live in urban areas and they influence very few seats. The BJP may win these with huge margins but may not do so well in closely fought rural constituencies. The BJP, in contrast, would be hoping that even if the two alliances split the rural seats a sweep of the urban constituencies will give it the decisive lead over Nitish Kumar.

Today’s Chanakya on how generations are voting in Bihar:

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @AmitShah
How Generation is voting in this election for #BJP+ :
18-25 yrs 45%
26-35 yrs 44%
36-45 yrs 45%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @laluprasadrjd
How Generation is voting in this election for #JDU+
18-25 yrs 38%
26-35 yrs 37%
36-45 yrs 39%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

Caste equations from Bihar as per Today’s Chanakya

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @AmitShah
How major caste is moving in this election for #BJP+
Baniya & Brahmin 66%
Bhumihar 61%
Kurmi 15%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @NitishKumar
How major caste is moving in this election for #JDU+
Baniya & Brahmin 15%
Bhumihar 23%
Kurmi 71%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @narendramodi @BJP4India
How major caste is moving in this election for #BJP+
Kushwah 49%
Muslim 9%
SC 51%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @laluprasadrjd @OfficeOfRG
How major caste is moving in this election for #JDU+
Kushwah 36%
Muslim 85%
SC 36%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @narendramodi @BJP4India
How major caste is moving in this election for #BJP+
Yadav 17%
Rajput 69%
OBC 50%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @NitishKumar @INCIndia @OfficeOfRG
How major caste moving this election for #JDU+
Yadav 66%
Rajput 15%
OBC 33%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

Exit polls: Lessons for the BJP

Firstpost Senior Editor Akshaya Mishra’s take: The BJP, if it performs according to the way the exit polls suggest, has many lessons to take from the Bihar election. One, it cannot go on making Narendra Modi and his oratory, its only unique selling proposition. Both might have lost the novelty quotient from overuse. Two, it cannot let the Hindutva forces to dictate its agenda and lead it away from the theme of governance. The backlash is visible. Three, it has to develop a new theme for its campaign. The 2014 template won’t work anymore.  Four, the party needs to deliver on the ground. Despite claims of the government, it’s not visible yet.

It will be a one way election

Firstpost Executive Editor Ajay Singh says while the exit polls predict a hung assembly, it is going to be a one way election. 

LIVE on #Periscope: Live: Bihar exit poll 2015 https://t.co/73yug42Jna

— Firstpost (@firstpost) November 5, 2015

Here’s some more analysis on the exit poll on Periscope

Executive Editor of Firstpost Ajay Singh on the exit polls in Bihar.  

LIVE on #Periscope: Live: Bihar exit poll 2015 https://t.co/oHVVm2ROIS

— Firstpost (@firstpost) November 5, 2015

Here’s some more analysis on the exit poll on Periscope

Executive Editor of Firstpost Ajay Singh on the exit polls in Bihar.  

LIVE on #Periscope: Live: Bihar exit poll 2015 https://t.co/oHVVm2ROIS

— Firstpost (@firstpost) November 5, 2015

Do Today’s Chanakya numbers spell trouble from Nitish govt?

BV Rao on the Nitish government: On the same Today’s Chanakya polls to a question “how do you rate the working of the government”, only 21% said they are happy with it. Is this building up to some numbers that will make the BJP look at exit polls with less disdain? We’ll tell you the moment TC releases their finally seat tally

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @BJP4India
How will you rate the working of present CM Nitish Kumar?
Good : 30%
Average : 18%
Poor : 38%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

Meanwhile from Lalu Prasad Yadav

Dekho mera chhati kitna ooncha hai: Lalu exults after claiming grand alliance will win 190 seats in #BiharElections pic.twitter.com/yHaoeJlkHi

— Firstpost (@firstpost) November 5, 2015

Is Bihar going to be another Delhi for the BJP

What Firstpost senior editor Akshaya Mishra says: I_s Bihar going to be another Delhi for the BJP? The exit polls suggest so, although it may not be as massive a defeat. But a disclaimer in the beginning: exit polls are known to go wrong. They don’t accurately map the voter mood all the time. But if they come true, then the BJP needs to serious soul-searching. From now on, things will only get more and more difficult for it. It considered Delhi a blip, but a loss here would mean the beginning of a long losing streak. All the assembly elections scheduled for next year take place in states where the party does not have a strong presence. Also, the loss here would mean the end of the aura of invincibility around Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah._

Today’s Chanakya finds anti-incumbency and it’s not good news for Nitish

Firspost Editor-in Chief BV Rao’s take on Today’s Chanakya findings: Today’s Chanakya, a little known pollster who shot to fame after getting the NaMo wave bang on, in 2014, the only one to get so, has an interesting bit of information. One of its questions during exit polls was “do you want a change in government”. To that, TC says, 51 percent said ‘yes’. This suggests anti-incumbency and can’t be good for Nitish Kumar. TC is about to release their final seat tally in a while and we will have the answer to this soon

Most people think JD(U) govt’s performance was poor

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @BJP4India @Bihar_BJP
How will you rate the working of the state government?
Good : 22%
Average : 27%
Poor : 41%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

Out of more than 65000 polling stations,re-polling ws conducted at only 2 due to minor error,historical:Dy Election Commissioner Umesh Sinha

— ANI (@ANI) November 5, 2015

Mahagathbandhan will win with 190 seats: Lalu Prasad Yadav pic.twitter.com/uZpaM6tXab

— Firstpost (@firstpost) November 5, 2015

We will win over 175 seats, says JD(U) MP

JD(U) Rajya Sabha MP Maulana Ghulam Rasool Balyavi to India Today: We will win over 175 seats

Here’s what Today’s Chanakya found in their survey

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections
What had an influence in deciding on ur voting pattern?
Party & Candidate 50%
Development&Law/Order 33%
Other 6%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @BJP4India @Bihar_BJP @INCIndia @AmitShah
Do you want a change of government in the state?
Yes : 51%
No : 34%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

#TCExitPoll #BiharElections @BJP4India @Bihar_BJP @INCIndia @AmitShah
Do you want a change of government in the state?
Yes : 51%
No : 34%

— Today's Chanakya (@TodaysChanakya) November 5, 2015

Editor’s take on the political reactions

Editor-in-Chief of Firstpost BV Rao’s take on political reactions: Well the other routine around exit polls, of political parties, trashing them, has begun. BJP has, without losing time said they are not worth the screen on which they are appearing. That they are confident Nitish Raj is over (a little different from their pre-poll tune which was against Lalu’s Jungle Raj).

BJP claims 2/3rd majority in Bihar

We have no doubt that we are going to win with 2/3rd majority: Shahnawaz Hussain, BJP #BiharPolls pic.twitter.com/wAPvyvmJqr

— ANI (@ANI) November 5, 2015

Grand Alliance heading for resounding mandate, says JD(U)

Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal-United (JD-U) said on Thursday that its Grand Alliance was heading “for a resounding mandate” in the assembly elections.

“This is a result of our positive campaigning and the development face of (Chief Minister) Nitish Kumar,” JD-U spokesman K.C. Tyagi told IANS.

“All the tactics and intended foul play seems to have gone against the BJP,” he said.

“I expect a huge win for our alliance,” he said. The Grand Alliance also includes the RJD and the Congress. “The BJP appears to have sensed its debacle."

IANS

Are the news channels playing safe with exit poll numbers?

Are the channels and their pollsters playing safe? Is it possible in such an election where there are only two clear formations to be ending up in such a dead heat? Tweet your answers to @firstpost. The good ones will make it to our live blog here and now

IndiaTV gives 122 to JD(U)+

Now India TV numbers predict 122  (112-132)   for Grand Alliance, +111  (101-121) for the NDA and +10  (6-14) for others.  

While the numbers seem to favour the Mahagathbandhan, even the India TV numbers prove that it will be an extremely close call for both the parties in battleground Bihar.

Both NDA, Grand Alliance is in margin of error zone

As the numbers come in, here’s what Firstpost Editor-in-Chief BV Rao has to say: 

From the numbers put out by three channels, Times Now, NewsX and India Today, it is clear that nobody is still clear where this election is going. The numbers thrown up by Times Now and India Today are so tight that both the BJP and the Grand Alliance will be in the margin of error zone. Depends on which party gets the positive benefit of the margin of error and which one its negative impact.

As for NewsX which the channel itself predicts a clear victory for the GA with 135 seats, a news release from IANS quoting NewsX showed the BJP alliance closer to the majority figure of 122.

News Nation post poll survey for #BattleForBihar

BJP + Allies: 115-119 seats
JDU + Allies: 120-124 seats
Others: 3-5 seats

— News18 (@CNNnews18) November 5, 2015

Will there be a hung house in Bihar?

Looks like it will be a very close fight between the NDA and the JD(U). There just be a hung house

India TV - C Voter post poll survey for #BattleForBihar

BJP + Allies: 101-121 seats
JDU + Allies: 112-132 seats
Others: 6-14 seats

— News18 (@CNNnews18) November 5, 2015

Now, NewsX predicts victory for JD(U) and co

While the intital NewsX numbers predicted an NDA win, on the channel, the numbers are pretty different. 

They bring good news for the Mahagathbandhan with these numbers: Grand Alliance  135,  NDA-95, others 13-23.

Times Now says Grand Alliance to win majority

So the exit poll numbers are as confusing as the prepoll survey numbers were. Times Now-CVoter exit poll puts Mahagatbandhan ahead in Bihar: JDU+ 122, BJP+ 111, Others 10

India Today – Cicero gives 120 to NDA, 117 to Grand Alliance

And the numbers are now coming in. If India Today numbers are to be believed, NDA will get 120 seats while the Grand Alliance will get 117.

NewsX exit polls give 126 seats to NDA, 110 to Grand Alliance

The BJP and its allies will gain control of the 243-member Bihar assembly by winning 126 seats, NewsX said on Thursday as the five-phase elections ended, reports IANS.

It said in an exit poll prediction that the ruling Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and its allies would win 110 seats. Seven seats would go to smaller parties.

Will Yadav votes go to JD(U) and Congress as well? 

Professor Sandeep Shastri speaking on the Lalu-Nitish alliance says, “The gathbandhan seems great on the top, but has it percolated to the local level. Will the Yadav vote trickle to the Congress and the JD(U)? That will be the real test for the Grand Alliance.”

Nine districts in Seemanchal voted today

Till the actualy numbers come in, here’s some  trivia — nine districts in Bihar’s Seemanchal region voted today in the last and final phase of the Assembly election.

Meanwhile, Dipankar Gupta tells India Today,  “NDA had the advantage earlier because it was talking about development. But the caste equations did hamper its progress."

On the other hand,  Senior journalist Ajit Kumar Jha tells the channel, “BJP will do very well in urban areas but Bihar is 85% rural."

56% voter turnout recorded till 4pm in last phase of Bihar polls

Polling for the last phase of the Bihar elections is on till 5.30 pm and has seen a massive voter turnout of 56 percent till 4 pm. 

While there are 243 seats in the Assembly, for a majority the alliances in fray would need 122 seats. 

Economist Surjit Bhalla predicts a win for the JD(U)- RJD- Congress Grand Alliance. “175 seats for Mahagathbandhan,” he tells India Today.