Why civil war in Myanmar may see spillover insurgency in India's North East

Myanmar is restive.

The People’s Defence Force, at the time of writing, seems to be gaining an upper hand in its battle against the Myanmar army. Of course, in war temporary advances and retreat do not proclaim the end, and it would be a while before the history of the junta vs Democratic forces war can be chronicled.

The “Drone Wars” about which this author had written in his columns earlier has paved the way to real takeovers of townships and munitions that the military junta had hold over.

Severe clashes have been reported across northern Shan State in the last few weeks. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army of the Brotherhood Alliance is battling the Myanmar army in what is being reported to be a CIA-backed Operation 1027. The ethnic militias have forcefully attacked Myanmar army bases located in the townships of Namtu, Kutkai and Kyaukme. In retaliation, it is reported that the Myanmar Army has been committing atrocities on the local population. Even medium artillery is reportedly being used to shell villages that have been used as tactical bases by the ethnic militias and the People’s Defence Force.

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It is in this light of the above that this column wishes to analyse the insurgency situation in the North East.

The Assam Rifles has to be commended on the exceptional work it has been doing in Nagaland, Manipur and South Arunachal Pradesh. The force’s intrepid Director General, Lt Gen Pradeep Chandra Nair and his trusted lieutenants, Maj Gen Vikas Lakhera, Rajan Sharawat, Brig. Swarn Singh and Brig. Vikram Singh have shown the world and the Indian nation what correct strategies can achieve.

The manner in which the United National Liberation Front (Pambei) was brought over ground showcases the resolve with which the Assam Rifles (led by the guiding hand of New Delhi) can act.

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It is also important to note the exemplary action by Assam Rifles Col Santosh Rawat of the Mon Battalion of the force. This author had accompanied the brave officer to Oting in Nagaland to understand how the Assam Rifles has salvaged the unfortunate incident and restored peace in what could have become a national outrage.

Not too long ago, Col Santosh Rawat very courageously foiled an attempt to abduct Atua Konyak and Tingkon Konyak from Yannyu village of Mon.

The rescue of the two from the clutches of NSCN-K Angmai’s faction on 16 December 2023 will continue to be a hearty feather in the cap of the gallant Assam Rifles of which Lt Gen Pradeep Chandra Nair is the proud head of.

However, it has to be independently comprehended that there are insurgent groups still at large in Myanmar. There is the Group of Five (G-5) in three neat clusters of the Sagaing Division which comprises PLA (Manipur), PREPAK (Two Factions), KYKL and KCP. These groups, aided and abetted by Chinese masters, are trying to enter Manipur from Myanmar. It has been learnt that even NSCN (IM) is trying to help them enter India via the Somra Tracts of Sagaing Division.

ULFA, which also has certain bases in Myanmar, is trying to flex its rusted muscles.

Assam that welcomed the New Year of 2024 is not the Assam of 1984. Even as Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma stated that the number of private madrassas in the state will be reduced by 1000, he said that the insurgency situation in the state has gone down by 90 per cent.

Indeed, the entire region is now poised for correct development. Earlier attempts at ethnic resurgences have been innovatively addressed by the present government and regional aspirations have joined hands with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national dream. North East India and Assam are on the road to developmental visioned escape velocity acceleration and take off.

On the law and order front, the success story has been no different. Almost all wayward insurgent groups in Assam, as was stated by the state chief minister, ranging from the Adivasi, Karbi or Dimasa hue have been brought back to the mainstream. The dreams and aspirations of their respective parishes have been fulfilled by a sympathetic government.

Forty years ago there was uncertainty and a modicum of unrest as a result of a wayward group called ULFA attempting to derail the development process that Assam was poised for. Assassination attempts, bomb explosions, abduction and extortion had marked the difficult years of the 1980s.

But the mantra of (a) concerted kinetic action (b) developmental initiative and (c) psychological imperatives that the State has endowed its practitioners won the day and banned insurgent groups such as ULFA were soon on the sidelines.

Today, ULFA struggles to survive in a civil strife-torn Myanmar. The motley organisation’s leadership is in the hands of anti-India inimical powers such as Pakistan’s ISI and China’s Ministry of State Security. Paresh Baruah, battle-fatigued and wrecked with renal disease, limps uncontrollably in China’s Yunnan province. Intelligence source states that he is being chaperoned by a Chinese woman who the Chinese intelligence has foisted on him. His own family continues to be in Bangladesh removed from the realities of Assam.

ULFA is a dead organisation. As aforesaid the organisation indeed continues to have a few run-down camps in Myanmar. But even these are skeletal and without any ideological or military will. Leaders of these camps such as Arunodoy Dohotia and Michael Deka Phukan and are just surviving.

Recent moves to “bare broken fangs” by ULFA (especially when it sought to threaten the Assam Police) is not only preposterous but showcases limp attempts to garner attention of a people that is eagerly striving for development under the able leadership of the Modi regime.

The recent apprehension of an ULFA cadre, Bibek Axom by the security forces in Upper Assam/Arunachal Pradesh in the thereabouts of Jagun has dealt a body blow to the organisation’s attempts to regain lost attention. It is reported that Bibek Axom along with another ULFA cadre had entered Assam via Arunachal Pradesh from ULFA’s Wakhtan camp in Myanmar’s Sagaing Division. Codenamed Yankee-3, Axom has been handed over to the Assam Police and is being interrogated at this time. The operation was conducted under the able leadership of Brig. Swarn Singh of the Lekhapani based Assam Rifles Sector.

But sinister attempts have to be undone. The Indian state will respond in correct measure to anti-national overtures.

It would be brave hearts such as Brig Swarn Singh who will win the accolades of a grateful India.

The author is a conflict theorist and bestselling author. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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