Lessons from Ukraine: Time for India to crystallise military drone strategy

The extensive use and success of relatively inexpensive drones in the Ukraine conflict resulted in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy establishing a separate branch within their armed forces dedicated to drone systems. It is a significant shift in military approach and reflects an evolving battlefield where uncrewed systems play a pivotal role.

Just a few days back the UK government announced a new strategy to support the development and deployment of uncrewed systems in the UK Armed Forces. The UK Defence Drone Strategy will create a unified approach across all three military services and the industry to enable the rapid experimentation, testing, evaluation and procurement of uncrewed platforms.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been personally driving the drone sector. Still, it is time the military starts enunciating doctrinal positions that will drive design and development, procurements and operational capabilities.

Lessons from Ukraine conflict

Drones have been central to the war in Ukraine and in many ways have shaped both effects and local outcomes. At tactical levels, they did destroy adversary military assets. At the strategic level, on their own, they may not have brought an end to the war, but they have changed the global outlook to military hardware equipping. Unlike the much larger and more expensive drones used by the US in untested environments for high-value targets, Ukraine has seen mostly low/mid-tier drones.

The numbers can be best illustrated by the fact that Ukraine has been losing nearly 10,000 drones a month. They will soon have more drones in their inventory than the number of soldiers on payroll. They have used American Switchblade, Polish Warmate, weaponised Chinese DJI commercial drones, and of course the Turkish TB-2 Bayraktar drones, among others. Russia has been procuring nearly 100,000 low-tier drones every month and has extensively used the Iranian Shahed-136 attack drones, indigenous Orion-10 and the Lancet.

The numbers and effects indicate that drones are reshaping tactical-level conflict. Armour vehicles, personnel carriers, gun emplacements, trenches, bunkers, buildings, airfield infrastructure, fuel storage parks, and factories have all been successfully targeted. Ukraine claims to have destroyed 15 Russian ships and many large parked aircraft using drones. Uncrewed water vessels “sea drones” damaged the Kerch Bridge, connecting Crimea to mainland Russia. They have a high nuisance value when used in civilian areas and create fear psychosis.

Drone counters have also evolved. Most importantly the electronic jamming of digital communication links, and causing them to crash. But the counter-countermeasures in terms of terrain-based navigation were also used.

Drones have been effective in making good shortages of artillery shells or air-launched munitions. Their loiter capability and autonomy have been important. Finally, for long-term strategic results, and political outcomes, drones will have to be a part of other fire vectors.

Drones served as precision strike weapons capable of replicating many of the functions performed by artillery and missiles at only a fraction of the price. Drones have been used in the recent past in other combat zones such as Syria, Libya, and the Second Karabakh War, but the scale in Ukraine has been of much higher level, making it the world’s first real drone war. Drones were sourced through crowd-funding, and a start-up-style drone manufacturing and modification industry has emerged.

UK’s new drone strategy

The UK Ministry of Defence has launched a new drone strategy that includes at least £4.5 billion ($5.7 billion) of investment in new unmanned aerial systems over the next decade. Ukraine war’s hard-fought lessons have driven the new approach. It is designed to help the country stay “one step ahead” of adversaries in future drone warfare. Unhindered access to “battle-winning” uncrewed systems is crucial in modern-day combat.

The announced goal is to develop and produce drones in four key categories: logistics, strike, naval mine clearance, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). The requirements have been simplified to shorten long development timelines and lengthy requirement discussions, the UK Defence Ministry noted. The so-called “game-changing” approach is meant to be collaborative. A unified approach across all three military services, academia, and industry to enable the rapid experimentation, testing, evaluation and procurement of uncrewed platforms. The strategy is meant to transform the approach to the acquisition, integration, and exploitation of uncrewed systems. It should also make the local defence industry more competitive in the global export market.

Pentagon takes a fresh look at drones

For long, the Pentagon has relied on large Predator-class drones. These were fairly effective in peacetime surveillance and for combat in uncontested environments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Having been closely involved in Ukraine, the US security establishment noticed the high threat to large airborne platforms and the extensive successful use of smaller expendable drones. The Pentagon has realised that large drones could be sitting ducks against China in the Indo-Pacific.

The US Department of Defence is now looking at the employment of thousands of inexpensive, expendable unmanned systems to offset China’s numerical advantages in people, missiles, and ships. The Pentagon aims to field small and cheap unmanned capabilities in the next two years as part of the Replicator Initiative. To make Replicator work, the Pentagon is planning on low-level units being able to incorporate drones and other unmanned systems into their operational schemes. US allies and partners are considered critical for the Pentagon’s drone and drone swarm strategy.

The US DoD has also been working on an expanded counter-drone strategy with a greater focus on holistic offensive and defensive capabilities to defeat adversary uncrewed systems. The often-used term “left of launch” means neutralising before an aircraft or missile has commenced flight. The US has been experimenting with a variety of counter-drone weapons including interceptors, lasers, high-power microwaves, electronic warfare systems and other tools. The new approach must manage defence against saturation by numbers and large swarms. Strikes on command-and-control nodes and ground control stations associated with the attack would be one way.

Chinese and Pakistan drone approach

China is considered the Walmart of hobbyist drones, making nearly 50 per cent of global requirements. There is a very thin gap between a civil and military drone – mainly the munitions. The high-quality cameras and other sensors, and the ability to navigate are required by both. While China has built the “Wing Loong” series of large drones for persistent surveillance and stand-off strikes in the Indo-Pacific region, it is also re-strategizing to have huge small drone inventories for kamikaze drone attacks against US Carrier groups and large ship naval flotilla.

Pakistan has long been dependent on Chinese and Turkish drones. They also have a home-grown UCAV the NESCOM Burraq (50 kg, 200 Km range). They talked with Turkey to co-produce the Anka UAV and possibly produce the combat drones locally. The Chinese Wing Loong II UCAVs will be produced in Pakistan jointly with China. Pakistan has Turkish Bayraktar-1 TBK which it has since upgraded. Pakistan is making significant investments in smaller drones. These drones often cross into India with contraband materials like drugs and arms.  Pakistan will surely use drones against India’s front-tier airfields and important Indian Army targets.

Chasing technology be conscious

While some battlefield drone videos may look impressive, one has to be cautious that while one pursues technological offsets only produces fleeting advantages before they are negated by battlefield adaptations. Russia has used powerful electronic jammers to neutralise thousands of Ukrainian drones. They have positioned one major EW system every 10 kilometres across the front line. Smaller directional jammers are employed at the platoon level. Camouflage or natural foliage has been effectively used by both sides to hide vehicles and artillery systems from overhead surveillance. Tunnels have played a role in countering drones. A lot of drones get wasted on cheap ground-based decoys.

China too has become cautious, and is already moving quickly on the counter-drone front, something the US Replicator programme will surely accelerate. They have developed vehicle-mounted laser defence systems “drone killers”, mobile air defence guns, small unit electronic warfare systems, and Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS).

Do militaries need a drone branch?

With such large numbers of uncrewed systems inducted into the armed forces and taking on myriad tasks, there is already a debate about whether major militaries require a drone branch. Ukraine’s ground-breaking initiative to create a drone systems force alongside established domain-based (ground, sea, air, space) military branches needs deeper analysis. Each domain requires uncrewed systems for different purposes and employability.  Each service could harness its unique domain expertise to advance the integration and utilisation of drones and autonomous systems. The surge in drone requirements in Ukraine may have created a peculiar situation. Each armed force has very peculiar domain-specific uncrewed system requirements, and centralising may best be left only to procurements and repairs.

Way ahead India

In the last few years, the Indian government and security establishment have become increasingly clear that the future is in uninhabited systems and India must become a significant drone-producing nation. The military requires different sizes of drones and drone swarms operating “at all altitudes and doing a range of missions."

A civil drone policy has been put in place. Industry industry-friendly environment is being created to promote drone manufacture in India. Many drone components are still being imported. More needs to be invested in R&D and economy of scale will cut in once orders increase. Cyber-security, secure communications and artificial intelligence-enabled systems will be important.

Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV “Tapas” being developed by DRDO has hit a roadblock. Ultimately India must have such indigenous UAVs and the project may be tweaked but not dumped. Adani-Elbit joint venture is making Hermes UAVs in India. DRDO Ghatak Stealth UCAV should fly by around 2025. India is procuring 31 MQ-9 Predators High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) from General Atomics. Fifteen will be with the Indian Navy to supplement P8I operations in the Oceans. Eight each for the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Indian Army for tactical area. IAF’s Project Cheetah, of around Rs 5,500 crore contract is meant to upgrade of the Heron MALE fleet of the three Services into armed UAVs.

Significant quantities of drones and swarm drones are being procured by the services. Manned Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) being developed by HAL needs hastening. Aatmanirbharta is critical for supply chain security. India must bar domestic manufacturers of military drones from using Chinese-made parts over concerns about security vulnerabilities. Dependence on China must gradually reduce for components even for civil use.

The most advanced technologies will likely be found in the drones’ software, communication systems and shielding from electromagnetic effects. Industrial capacities have to go up and this will require skilled manpower. There has to be a timeline-driven industrial and induction plan. There should be a “Military-Civilian Fusion” (MCF) strategy to create a drone industry capable of meeting the demands of modern warfare.

In IAF UAVs come under the Weapon Systems branch. Indian Army has put UAVs under Army Aviation. There are many common roles drones and UAVs, and the procurements and servicing can be centralised. Spares and logistics management can be joint. Operational utilisation would be as per service and later Theatre specific.

India must beef up its defences against adversaries’ tactical unmanned aerial systems and kamikaze drones, and also prepare to secure Island territories from drone swarm attacks. Peace-time trans-border drone incursions require monitoring and active counteraction. India needs to defend its shipping. We should be secure from terrorist drone threats to large gatherings and civil aviation. All this would mean developing hard and soft kill anti-drone systems.

There is a need to evolve and review joint doctrines, organisational structures, training and tactics, and build operational synergy. India’s military drone ecosystem has grown rapidly over the last few years and is on a promising trajectory, but it needs to be adequately nurtured.

Over the last few years, the Indian armed forces have stepped up drone procurements for surveillance, reconnaissance, target acquisition, precision strikes, directing artillery fires, and logistics, especially in the mountains. The ongoing border standoff with China has provided a further impetus to this process.

While India’s nearly over 300 drone start-ups are increasingly geared to meet civilian needs and equip the armed forces, unlocking the potential of India’s military drone ecosystem will require it to be sufficiently nurtured. The government’s Innovations for Defence Excellence (iDEX) initiative provides grants to support the development of military-grade products, including drones. Drone start-ups have also benefitted from the Technology Development Fund. Apart from the MoD, the armed forces have also launched initiatives to foster the development of military drones. IAF’s Mehar Baba competition, and the Indian Army, in collaboration with the Drone Federation of India, launched the Him Drone-a-thon program.

Drones are seeing action. Ukraine has pushed major global powers to re-strategize procurements and build large drone inventories. Operational employment is evolving. Without any knee-jerk actions, India must get its military drone strategy right.

The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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