How AIMIM and AAP’s Rajasthan venture is bad news for Congress

Recently, Asaduddin Owaisi launched the AIMIM unit in Rajasthan. The party is eyeing the Muslim vote bank. The minorities in Rajasthan have been the key voter base for the Congress, but now there is a growing unease among Muslims for several reasons. Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party is also trying to establish its organisation in Rajasthan. Their target will be disenchanted Congress voters, too. Meanwhile, the Congress is drowning in infighting. The party has kept all its MLAs in Udaipur to show a united strength in the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls. This could be the last chance for the party to show its united front in the state before the Assembly elections, which will take place within 18 months. Broken house of Congress party The Congress now rules only two states in India. These two states are Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Earlier this year, the party miserably lost Punjab. Rajasthan will hold an Assembly election next year. Discontent within the party, on the other hand, is rapidly spreading throughout the state. The primary cause of the party’s breakdown is the feud between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and senior legislator Sachin Pilot. [caption id=“attachment_8708291” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]  Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot[/caption] The Congress in Rajasthan is now attempting to send a message of unity ahead of the Rajya Sabha elections. This is the last chance for the Congress to show that everything is alright within the party. However, the truth is quite different. Following ticket distribution issues in 2018, around 11 senior Congress leaders left the party and fought the elections on their own. The current government, led by Gehlot, has the support of 10 of these independent MLAs, who won their seats in the elections. The elections for the four seats of the Rajya Sabha from Rajasthan will be held on 10 June 10. The Congress, with 108 members, can win two seats but will need the support of independent legislators as well as other parties to win the third. The Bharatiya tribal party has announced that it will support Congress in the Rajya Sabha polls. On the condition of anonymity, a senior Congress leader stated, “One thing will become clear in this Rajya Sabha election. Who is the real boss of the Congress party in Rajasthan? Today, the party has got the support of the Bharatiya tribal party, BSP-turned-Congress MLAs, and other independent candidates. This has happened because of CM Ashok Gehlot and his credible leadership. No one can match up to this kind of leadership in the state. We are a united house and every leader will have to accept that and deliver accordingly.” Why Congress is desperate to show its unity In Rajasthan, the Congress has become desperate to show that its house is in order. After the massive defeat in Punjab, the party does not have any choice but to keep its house in order in Rajasthan. In the upcoming Assembly elections, if the party loses the state as well, then there will be a time when the Congress will not have states to send MPs to the Rajya Sabha. On the one hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party is mobilising in Rajasthan to counter the Congress’ misgovernance. For several reasons, anti-incumbency is growing in the state. There is also a massive unease among the Congress legislators about the bureaucratisation of power. This is known as “Kothari Culture,” where some bureaucrats run the show from behind. This despite the fact that there is no doubt in the minds of people that Chief Minister Gehlot has done some remarkable development work in the state.

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A senior Congress leader said, “People are with us. Look at every state we lost in the last election. The problem is that other parties are coming and trying to take away our votes. No one is targeting the BJP but us. This is why unity is a must.” Why AIMIM is bad news for Rajasthan Congress Rajasthan’s Muslim population has historically been a key vote bank for the Congress. AIMIM president and MP Asaduddin Owaisi recently announced the formation of a six-member core committee for the state, led by Jaipur-based educationist Jameel Khan. The plan is that Owaisi’s party wants to fight the Rajasthan Assembly elections next year. Rajasthan has historically seen a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP. [caption id=“attachment_10756611” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]  AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi. ANI[/caption] The AIMIM would be focusing on the Muslim vote bank in the state. Muslims make up approximately 9.07 per cent of Rajasthan’s population and have some influence in about 35-40 seats. Apart from Bihar, where Owaisi’s party won five seats, the AIMIM has been trying to make inroads in northern India. Recently, several incidents of communal violence have been reported in Rajasthan. However, many political analysts in the state believe that the Rajasthan government and the Congress have failed to send a strong message against these communal tensions. Analysts have also noted that when a massive communal clash occurred in Jodhpur, the chief minister’s home turf, he did not even visit the area. In this situation, if Owaisi’s party can gain the support of the Muslim population, the Congress will be the main casualty of this political struggle. How can AAP harm Congress in Rajasthan? Rajasthan was one of the first states where the AAP wanted to establish itself after its inception under Arvind Kejriwal. However, little progress was made in the state, and the AAP was unable to establish a foothold in Rajasthan. However, following its victory in Punjab, the AAP has launched an expansion campaign across the states. The party’s primary target is states where the Bharatiya Janata Party is fighting the Congress, and where the latter is weak. Recently, the AAP appointed its Dwarka MLA from Delhi, Vinay Mishra, in charge of Rajasthan. [caption id=“attachment_10748921” align=“alignnone” width=“640”]  Delhi Chief Minister and AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal. ANI[/caption] In Rajasthan, the focus of the AAP would be the voters of the Congress who are disenchanted with the working of the party. There are high chances that the AAP will harm the Congress more than the Bharatiya Janata Party. The author is an independent journalist based in Kolkata and a former policy research fellow at the Delhi Assembly Research Centre. He tweets as @sayantan_gh. Views expressed are entirely personal. Read all the Latest News , Trending News ,  Cricket News , Bollywood News , India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.