Why was terror boat on fire? The big question that Modi govt may not be able to avoid

There are questions galore on either side of the central argument that has been rocking the Indian politics since 2 January: whether it was a Pakistani terror boat or not that sank in the high seas close to India-Pakistan maritime boundary.

The first and foremost question emerges from the fact that whatever account of the boat-sinking episode we have, has come from a press release from the Ministry of Defence which also gave out four coloured photographs of the boat on fire before it sank.

The question is: one can see the boat on fire but one cannot determine why it is on fire? Is it because the four persons said to be on board themselves set it on fire or whether it caught fire after it was bombed by the Indian Coast Guard? This is an important question to understand the chain of events. The MoD press release says that the crew set the boat on fire.

The MoD statement is obviously aimed at criminals’ psychology that smugglers or petty criminals do not blow themselves up; but terrorists do, when cornered.

Congress leader Ajoy Kumar rocked Narendra Modi government’s boat by remarking that, “There is no concrete evidence to prove a major terrorist strike was averted” and questioned how the government could claim such a thing. The Congress also demanded to know which terror outfit was behind the drama at high seas.

A simple answer can be that terrorists do not take responsibility for attacks that are aborted. But the issue may well be more complicated than that.

The photographs released by the MoD shows the boat burning like a heap of wax in the Arabian Sea. This kind of fireball effect can be generated only if the boat is filled with highly combustible material. This material can be explosives or petrol/diesel.

If the boat was laden with petroleum products, it will have a different burning pattern. But if it was carrying explosives and arms and ammunition, it will have a much different burning pattern as it will be accompanied by series of explosions.

Also the colour of the fire will be radically different in the two scenarios. Which one was the case cannot be said with any certainty from the four pictures shared by the MoD.

This issue can be set at rest only by three things from the Modi government: (i) Issuing a formal statement from the government’s side; (ii) Releasing the video of the events leading to the sinking of the boat; and (iii) releasing the transcripts of intercepted conversations that the crew members of the boat had.

The first point has gained all the more traction because so far only the BJP spokespersons have been talking about the boat incident and there has been no official statement from the Modi government apart from the MoD statement. As one can see, the MoD statement has been bikini-like which reveals something but conceals the vital portions.

The second and third points are more difficult actions on part of the government as these relate to vital operational issues.

While it should normally be the prerogative of the government as to what information it wants to share, how much and when; it should be borne in mind that the government is increasingly under pressure to clear the air.

The Indian Coast Guard would definitely have a video of the entire incident which will put to rest a string of questions and doubts about the incident. But sharing the video with the public would have to be a political decision to be taken by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

As for the third point, disclosing the intercepts is even far trickier. This can compromise a lot of things, not just the detailed investigations into the boat incident. This will inevitably impinge on the much larger issues like spycraft, complex foreign policy issues and international diplomacy.

One may argue that since at the time of the Kargil War the Indian government had released intercepts of conversations of the then Pakistan Army chief General Pervez Musharraf with his trusted Chief of the General Staff Lt General Moahammed Aziz Khan, so releasing the phone intercepts of the boat crew would be perfectly in order.

But then the two situations are starkly different and the boat incident nowhere measures up to the gravity of the Kargil War.

All one can say is that the Congress party has gambled big by questioning the Modi government on the whole boat incident and now the ball is the government’s court. Nonetheless, given the sensitive national security issues, the government should not be hectored. It needs to be given time and space to respond.

The writer is Consulting Editor, Firstpost, and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.