Exit Poll 2024: Narendra Modi-led NDA set for hattrick with 355-370 seats, INDI Alliance to score 125-140

Almost all pollsters predicted a hat-trick for PM Modi and the NDA alliance.

Here’s what News18 predicted for all-India polls:

Total Seats – 543

BJP – 305-315

NDA – 355-370

INC – 62-72

INDIA – 125-140

Others – 42-52

All India Vote Share (%)

BJP – 40%

NDA – 47%

INC – 20%

INDIA – 33%

Others – 20%

The assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Odisha are being held simultaneously in four phases, from May 13 to June 1, with vote counting scheduled for June 4. In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJD secured 112 out of 146 seats, while the BJP won 23 seats, and the Congress obtained nine seats.

The BJD emerged dominant during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, winning 12 seats. The BJP followed closely with eight seats, and the Congress managed to secure only one seat.

Of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha, the BJP is expected to win 13-15 seats and the BJD six to eight, as per the News 18 exit poll.

The seventh phase of the Lok Sabha elections – which marks the fourth round of polls in Jharkhand – took place on June 1. Of the 14 Lok Sabha seats, BJP won 11 constituencies, while AJSU Party, Congress, and JMM won one seat each in the 2019 polls.

Elections were previously held in Jharkhand on May 13, May 20 and May 25. The final phase of elections saw intense campaigning, including by PM Narendra Modi, BJP president JP Nadda, Jharkhand CM Champai Soren, and JMM leader Kalpana Soren. Of the 14 Lok Sabha seats, BJP won 11 constituencies, while AJSU Party, Congress, and JMM won one seat each in the 2019 polls.

All eyes are on Dumka seat where BJP’s Sita Soren, sister-in-law of jailed former Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren, is contesting against INDIA bloc’s Nalin Soren. Sita, a former three-term JMM legislator, joined the BJP just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, citing ’neglect’ and ‘isolation’ by JMM after the death of her husband Durga Soren in 2009.

Of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand, the BJP is expected to win 9-12 seats and the INDIA bloc is expected to win between six to eight seats, as per News 18 exit poll.

Almost all pollsters predicted BJP’s victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. But will the ruling regime go “400 paar”?

Read our analysis of this year’s poll for polls.

Nearly all pollsters have predicted that the BJP-led NDA will return – with an even bigger footprint.

Polling for the seventh and last phase of Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal commenced at 7 AM on Saturday under tight security. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) secured 22 seats, while the BJP made significant gains with 18 seats, and Congress won two seats.

This phase features several prominent candidates, including Trinamool Congress general secretary Abhishek Banerjee, sitting MPs Sudip Bandyopadhyay, Sougata Roy, and Mala Roy, former Union minister Debasree Chaudhuri of the BJP, and senior CPI(M) leader Sujan Chakraborty.

Of the 42 seats of West Bengal, the BJP is expected to win 21-21 seats and the TMC 18-21, according to the News 18 exit poll.

Uttarakhand recorded a voter turnout of around 55.01 per cent across the five Lok Sabha seats, it was a major dip from the figures in 2019 which was 61.4 per cent. In the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019, BJP won all 5 seats.

Here’s the prediction for this year.

Of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab, the Congress is expected to win 8-10, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) zero to one, and the BJP between two and four seats, as per the News 18 exit poll.

Punjab went to polls for all its seats in the final phase of the Lok Sabha polls. The voter turnout in the state till 3 pm was 46.38 per cent. In the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019, INC won 8 seats, SAD 2, BJP 2, and AAP 1.

The state of Himachal Pradesh went to polls on the 7th phase of polling as well. The voter turnout in the state till 3 pm was 58.41 per cent. The state contributes 4 seats in the parliament. In the 2019 polls, BJP won all 4 seats.

Uttarakhand recorded a voter turnout of around 55.01 per cent across the five Lok Sabha seats, it was a major dip from the figures in 2019 which was 61.4 per cent. In the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019, BJP won all 5 seats.

In the Himalayan states of Himachal and Uttarakhand, the BJP is expected to sweep all the nine seats, according to News 18 exit poll.

Uttar Pradesh sends 80 members to the Lower House of Parliament and the polling has been spread over all seven election phases. The state is seeing a direct contest between the BJP-led NDA and INDIA bloc members Samajwadi Party and Congress.

Among the prominent Lok Sabha seats in this phase are Modi’s Varanasi, Gorakhpur, which has been represented by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath five times, and Chandauli, Maharajganj and Mirzapur from where Union ministers Mahendra Nath Pandey, Pankaj Chaudhary and Anupriya Patel are contesting.

Of the 80 seats in UP, the BJP-led NDA is expected to win 68-71 and the INDIA bloc 9-12, according to News 18 exit poll.

Among the NDA, the BJP is expected to win 64-67 seats. In the INDIA bloc, the Congress is expected to win three to six seats.

The weekslong Lok Sabha elections concluded on Saturday (June 1) as the seventh and the final round of voting came to an end.

After the Election Commission (EC)-imposed embargo on exit polls ended on 6 pm on Saturday, the figures started to pour in.

In West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) mounted a sharp campaign against the state’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). In Odisha too, the BJP led a sharp campaign against the state’s long-time ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD).

Read our story on how pollsters predict that the parties will fare in the 2024 polls.

Nearly all pollsters have predicted that the BJP-led NDA will return – with an even bigger footprint.

Dr. Bora Narasaiah Reddy, Bhongir BJP LS candidate from Telangana said that the exit polls are reflecting that the ‘mood and pulse’ is towards PM Modi.

“It’s what we have been telling and Amit Shah ji has been telling, the mood and pulse are towards Modiji including whole nation, so we are going to get double-digit in Telangana, that’s what exit polls predict and we thank people of Telangana for this,” he said.

“Around 400, anything between 350-400 is possible if you take an average of all exit polls, Modiji is forming the government, he will form it with a full majority and it’ll oscillate anywhere between 350-400,” he added.

Here’s what News18 predicted for all-India polls:

Total Seats – 543

BJP – 305-315

NDA – 355-370

INC – 62-72

INDIA – 125-140

Others – 42-52

All India Vote Share (%)

BJP – 40%

NDA – 47%

INC – 20%

INDIA – 33%

Others – 20%

Source: News18

As the seventh and final phase of Lok Sabha elections concluded on Saturday (June 1) at 6 pm, the exit poll figures started pouring in.

The states of Uttar Pradesh (80) and Bihar (40) together send 120 MPs to the Lok Sabha and remain electorally crucial. It is famously said that the road to Delhi passes through UP.

Notably, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is contesting from UP’s Varanasi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is also a candidate for Rae Barelli’s seat. The seat is his second seat after Wayanad in Kerala.

Read our story about the full figures in the big states.

Lok Sabha elections in India concluded on June 1 with the seventh round of voting (Photo: AFP)

Of the seven seats in Delhi, the BJP is expected to win five to seven seats and the Congress is expected to win zero to two seats, as per the News 18 exit poll.

Polls in Delhi were held in the sixth phase of the Lok Sabha poll on May 25. When it comes to voter turnout, Delhi witnessed a significant dip in voter turnout recording 58.69 per cent this time against a polling percentage of 60.6 per cent in 2019. In the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019, BJP won all 7 seats in the Union Territory.

Here’s a look at the numbers according to the News18 Mega Exit Polls.

Source: News18

BJP’s Tejasvi Surya said that Karnataka results will reflect how Congress’ vision did not work in the state. “This is a rejection of the economic vision of Congress in Karnataka. Their entire campaign was based on Karnataka being cheated of funds… it’s a rejection of that also,” Surya told CNN-News18 on Sunday.

Bengaluru South constituency BJP candidate Tejasvi Surya shows his finger marked with indelible ink after casting his vote for the second phase of Lok Sabha elections, in Bengaluru. PTI

Across Chhattisgarh, PM Modi is the one on the ballot. Ground reports indicate that the BJP party machinery is heavily banking on Modi’s name. The recent state elections where the BJP gained power have uplifted the cadre.

Candidates are largely irrelevant, and the BJP is in a much stronger position compared to the Congress. However, there are some seats, like Bastar, where voters clearly differentiate between their admiration for Modi and their dissatisfaction with the performance of local representatives.

Here’s what News18 Mega Exit Poll predicting for Chhattisgarh:

These elections in Assam have been influenced by a number of factors, including the recent delimitation exercise, the ongoing debate over identity politics and demographic change and the Assam Healing (Prevention of Evil) Practices Bill. Delimitation, the redrawing of electoral boundaries, has emerged as a significant factor, potentially tilting the scales in favour of the BJP. By merging Muslim-majority areas with others and increasing seats in areas with indigenous populations, the BJP hopes to gain a strategic advantage.

The delimitation has raised concerns from parties like the AIUDF, which rely heavily on Muslim votes and had centred their campaign strategy on questioning the election commission’s independence in making these decisions. It has also created uncertainty about the fate of previously Muslim-dominated seats.

The News18 Mega Exit Poll predicts a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA forecasting 10 to 13 seats for the NDA, two to five for the INDIA bloc and one for others.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma addressing an election rally in East Delhi ahead of May 25 Lok Sabha polls 2024. Source: X/@himantabiswa

As the 7th phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections comes to an end, it will be safe to say that the world’s largest democracy chose the administration that will rule the country for the next five years.

With the clock striking 6, exit polls started to pour in with predictions of which alliance would win the intense race to the mighty Indian parliament.

The polls will also ponder on the questions of whether the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) will be able to cross its highly ambitious goal of going “400 paar” or INDI Alliance might take the ruling regime by surprise.

Read our story on what the exit polls say about the fate of parties in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Uttarakhand and Ladakh.

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It’s a tough fight in the state of Rajasthan, but the BJP retains the upper hand. Riding on the recent state election win and the Modi factor, the BJP is banking on welfare schemes and development agenda to target a clean sweep in the state like in 2019. To the BJP’s credit, the party is cushioned by a large winning margin in 2019, having won 59.1 per cent of the vote against the Congress’ 34.6 per cent and securing all 25 seats in the state as a result.

Source: News18 Mega Exit Polls

While speaking to CNN-News18, the Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas and Minister of Housing and Urban Affairs, Hardeep Singh Puri said that BJP will win all seats in Delhi. “I have seen feedback and trends earlier… we’ll get all 7 seats in Delhi,” the Union Minister told CNN-News18.

Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. File Photo

It’s a one-way fight in Gujarat, with the BJP continuing to dominate the political and electoral dynamics of the state. PM Modi remains the biggest vote-catcher for the BJP, and there is no visible disappointment or anger against the Modi government.

Being the home state of both PM Modi and HM Amit Shah, the BJP has made it a point to eye a clean sweep in the state once again. Despite significant anti-incumbency against sitting MPs and visible internal party tussles, the BJP is said to have posted a strong performance here on polling day.

Here’s what polls are saying:

Source: News18 Mega Polls

With the conclusion of the seventh and the last phase of Lok Sabha elections, attention has now shifted to Exit polls.

Who will form the next government? Will the BJP be able to cross the 400-mark? How many seats will the INDI Alliance win? Exit polls have the answer to these questions.

They give a fair idea of a particular party’s performance in the elections and are based on interviews of voters. They are conducted by several organisations that survey people as soon as they cast their votes.

Read our full story on what Exit Polls in these regions are reflecting.

Varanasi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi during Nari Shakti Sammelan in Varanasi, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. (PTI Photo)

While speaking exclusively to CNN-News18, BJP candidate and former CM of Madhya Pradesh expressed his confidence in BJP.

“We are going to win 29 seats (in Madhya Pradesh). I am confident that NDA to cross 400 this time,”  Singh told CNN-News18.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. PTI.

If you are wondering what the pollsters predicted in the 2014 and 2019 General Elections and how they performed, Read our analysis on the topic.

Maharashtra, with its 48 seats, ranks second only to Uttar Pradesh in terms of Lok Sabha representation. NDA had won 42 seats in 2014 and 41 in 2019, playing a crucial role alongside Uttar Pradesh in helping the BJP become the largest party in the Lok Sabha and secure a majority. Hence, this state is key when it comes to the ultimate election outcome in the country but it has been anything but easy to paint an accurate electoral picture here.

Here are the numbers for the state of Maharashtra:

BJP – 22- 23

NDA – 32 -35

INC – 6-9

INDIA – 15-18

Others –

Source: News18 Mega Exit Polls

The theme for the Lok Sabha elections in Telangana this time seems to be a fall from grace for the BRS and a resurgence for the Congress (for the first time since the state was created in 2014) and the BJP.

The election cycle has seen many defections from the BRS to the BJP and the Congress which weekend the BRS which was already on a downward trend since losing the assembly elections in the state.

Here’s what the News18 Mega Exit Poll predicting for the state of Telangana:

Source: News18 Mega Exit Polls

As we release the News18 Mega Exit Poll, one of the major questions that floats around is how the exit polls are conducted.

To know about the science behind polling and election forecast read our explainer that answers all the questions.

Click Here  

Andhra Pradesh is in the midst of shifting political sands that have come as worry for the Jaganmohan-led YSRCP in the face of a united front posed by the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena alliance making the NDA a dominant challenger to the incumbent.

Another worry for Jagan is the Congress which has demonstrated a notable turnaround in fortunes after the induction of his own sibling Y S Sharmila as its top leader.

Here’s what News18 Mega Exit Poll predicting for the state of Andhra Pradesh:

Source: News18 Mega Exit Poll

According to the News18 Mega Exit Poll prediction for UP, Bihar, and Bengal (Phase 1 to 3), the following are the numbers:

UP (Phase 1 to 3) 

BJP – 22-25

NDA – 22-25

INC –

INDIA – 3-6

Others –

Bihar (Phase 1 to 3)

BJP – 2-5

NDA – 10-13

INC – 0-2

INDIA – 3-6

Others –

West Bengal (Phase 1 to 3)

BJP – 6-9

NDA – 6-9

INC –

INDIA – 3-6

Others –

Conducting opinion polls and election forecasts is a common culture all around the world. What makes the Indian exit polls interesting is the fact that it is a rule to release all the predictions only after polling in all the phases across the country is over.

But why?

Click here to read our explainer about the most pertinent question.

A man looks at a television screen showing exit poll results after the last phase of the general election in Ahmedabad on 19 May 2019. File photo/Reuters

In the 2019 elections, BJP had reached a high point in Karnataka on the back of a massive Modi wave winning 25 out of 28 seats. Congress hit rock bottom with just one seat. However, there was a significant shift has taken place in the political landscape of Karnataka following the Congress’ victory in the assembly elections in 2023, dethroning the BJP-led state government.

Here’s what News18 Mega Exit Poll predicting for the state of Karnataka:

Karnataka News 18 Exit Poll. Source: Network18

Polling in Kerala had seen some disruption to the historical voting patterns. This is an election where the emergence of the BJP as a third force is being seen as a very real possibility due to the high-profile candidates fielded and frequent visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Here’s what News18 Mega Exit Poll Predicting in Kerala:

NW18 Mega Exit Poll prediction for the state of Kerala. Source: NW18

The DMK-Congress alliance is comfortably placed across Tamil Nadu even BJP seems to be gaining a considerable vote share, which may not necessarily translate into a big quantum of seats. While DMK is fighting on 21 seats and the Congress on 9, BJP has fielded candidates from 23 seats. It has nine partners, mostly smaller parties, on its side.

Here’s a look at the figures.

Tamil Nadu Exit Poll. Source: NW18

According to News18 Mega Exit Poll, here are the overall figures for the South Zone:

Total – 131

BJP – 34-36

NDA – 51-54

INC – 31-34

INDIA – 64-67

OTHERS – 14-17

Exit poll figures from South Zone. Source: NW18 Mega Exit Poll

According to News 18  Mega Exit polls, this is how the parties will perform in the southern states.

Tamil Nadu

NDA – 1-3

INC – 8-11

INDIA – 36-39

ADMK+  0-2

Puducherry 

NDA –

INC – 1

INDIA – 1

Others –

Kerala

NDA – 1-3

INC – 12-15

INDIA – 15-18

Others (Left) – 2-5

Lakshadweep 

NDA –

INC –

INDIA – 1

Others –

Karnataka 

BJP – 21-24

NDA – 23-26

INC – 3-7

INDIA – 3-7

Others –

Andhra Pradesh

BJP – 4-6

NDA – 19-22

INC –

INDIA –

Others (YSRCP) – 5-8

Telangana

BJP – 7-10

NDA – 7-10

INC – 5-8

INDIA – 5-8

Others (BRS, AIMM) – 3-5

Network18 conducted layers of checking while recording and analysing public opinion about the 2024 polls.

Here’s a look x-step process of News18 Mega Exit Poll

1. To conduct the News18 Mega Exit Poll, 95,000 people across the country took part in the opinion polls.
2. After accumulating the data, it was stored.
3. Raw data was eventually collated
4. The team also conducted cross-checking
5. Finally, the final numbers were accumulated.

All these measures were taken to maintain the integrity of the election forecast

As India concludes the seven phases of voting, the results are locked and sealed. Before we find out the actual winner of the race to the mighty Indian parliament. Pollsters tries to figure out the mood of the nation.

Brace yourself for the News18 Mega Exit Poll.