After Maharashtra, why Bihar could be the next state to witness political turmoil

Maharashtra politics is in turmoil. On Sunday, Nationalist Congress Party’s (NCP) Ajit Pawar and eight other MLAs broke ranks and joined the Eknath Shinde-Devendra Fadnavis government, engineering a vertical split within the Sharad Pawar-led party. The moves made on Sunday and Monday, prompting reactions from all corners have also led to worries about a similar situation arising in the state of Bihar and that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s next target will be Bihar CM Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) {JDU}. **Also read: With Ajit Pawar’s entry, is BJP trying to ‘replace’ Eknath Shinde as Maharashtra CM?** The speculation is not without signs, however. There are indications of a rumble within the Bihar governing alliance of the JD(U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress. So much so that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar held one-to-one meetings with several JD(U) legislators. But is it actually possible? Is a Maharashtra-like coup on the horizon in Bihar? We examine what’s happening. Unrest within the Grand Alliance? On Monday, just a day after NCP’s Ajit Pawar took oath as deputy chief minister of Maharashtra, Union Minister Ramdas Athawale raised the possibility of rifts in other Opposition camps, including Nitish Kumar-led JD(U). He said, “Maharashtra-like situation may erupt in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh as many MLAs are unhappy with Nitish Kumar joining hands with RJD. Similarly in UP, Jayant Chaudhary can join the NDA as he did not attend the Patna opposition meeting.”

VIDEO | "Maharashtra-like situation may erupt in Bihar and UP as many MLAs are unhappy with Nitish Kumar joining hands with RJD. Similarly in UP, Jayant Chaudhary can join the NDA as he did not attend the Patna opposition meeting," says Union Minister Ramdas Athawale amid the… pic.twitter.com/FrM7T2ip4D

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) July 3, 2023

Shortly afterwards, BJP Rajya Sabha member Sushil Modi, who was the deputy chief minister under Nitish Kumar when the JD(U) and the BJP ruled Bihar also stated that there was a likelihood of a Maharashtra-like situation emerging in his state. “JD(U) MLAs are unhappy over the manner in which Nitish Kumar backstabbed the BJP; the legislators of both the parties had a natural relationship for the past 16-17 years. They are insecure about their future now,” he said. He further added that a “stampede” is waiting to take place anytime in the JD(U), reported the Times of India, adding, “These JD(U) leaders are neither able to accept RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav as Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s ‘successor’, nor the Congress’ Rahul Gandhi as the leader of the united Opposition.” Even Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan chimed in saying that several MLAs and leaders from Nitish Kumar’s party JD(U) were in touch with him. He further said that the JD(U) would not even win 10 seats in the Lok Sabha elections next year. [caption id=“attachment_12821692” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Bihar chief minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar recently held one-to-one meetings with his MLAs after talks emerged that the BJP was trying to lure them. File image/PTI[/caption] But do these statements hold any merit? Some political pundits observe that there is trouble brewing within the Grand Alliance in Bihar and that the BJP could capitalise on it. Firstly, Nitish Kumar’s meetings with MLAs come as reports emerge that BJP leaders have been reaching out to his members, making attempts to lure them over. Also, reports have stated that Nitish Kumar is under pressure from his own ally, the RJD, to shift his focus to the national stage and hand over the state of Bihar to deputy Tejashwi Yadav. There is also some speculation that Nitish himself, known for switching alliances, might return to the BJP fold, keeping his moniker of ‘ Paltu Ram’ alive. After all, he’s in power right now after breaking ties with the BJP and joining hands with the RJD. Importantly when Home Minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah visited Bihar last on 29 June, he did not make a single comment regarding Nitish Kumar neither did he state that the BJP’s doors are shut for him. Moreover, late last month, Nitish Kumar called on Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar at the Raj Bhawan in Patna, after which Sushil Kumar Modi paid a visit to the Raj Bhawan. Sushil Kumar Modi called his and Nitish Kuamr’s visit to the Raj Bhawan on the same day a coincidence. These two visits may have nothing in common, but many see a connection. However, amid all this speculation, Sushil Kumar Modi on Monday said that Union Home Minister Amit Shah made it very clear in the beginning that the BJP would not accept Nitish Kumar at any cost. “Even if Nitish Kumar rubs his nose at BJP’s doors, we will not accept him. BJP will not carry his baggage.” How the numbers stack up? For the BJP to engineer a coup in Bihar, the numbers are an important factor. To stake claim to the government, the BJP, currently having 74 seats, needs to reach the 122 mark in the 243-member Assembly. This means the BJP needs 48 more MLAs. As of now, the ruling coalition has close to 160 MLAs. It comprises JD(U), RJD and Congress besides three Left parties which are supporting the government from outside. Last month, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), led by former Bihar chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, withdrew its support to the Nitish Kumar government. The HAM with four MLAs had joined the ruling alliance last year. How is the Grand Alliance reacting? While the buzz is ongoing, JD(U) national spokesperson Rajib Ranjan dismissed reports of unrest and called it a BJP propaganda campaign. RJD’s supremo Lalu Prasad also said on Monday, “Narendra Modi is against reservation. Now I hear that the attempt is to repeat Maharashtra in Bihar, but it will not happen. Here, all are united. Bihar does not budge. We will unitedly work to uproot the Modi government.” With inputs from agencies Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.