Karnataka Results 2023 | Voters pick Cong over BJP: Why this is no surprise

In India’s major and medium-sized states, the BJP has been victorious in numerous elections since 2014. It has earned a reputation for being virtually invincible, even in areas that weren’t supposed to be advantageous for their political ideas. Nevertheless, in recent years, the opposition has challenged the ruling party in Karnataka , a state with a long election history. Currently, a variety of things are putting the “invincibility” of the centrally-placed ruling party into doubt. However, recurring patterns in various elections since 1985 suggest that while winning is challenging, defending is even more challenging. Let’s take a closer look. Also read: Karnataka Assembly Election Results 2023: Who is leading, who is trailing? Karnataka’s nightmare of the incumbent government The electoral landscape is shaped by a variety of elements, such as local identity politics, economic growth, and voter sentiments. As per the electoral trends, no incumbent government in Karnataka has been returned to power in the state since 1985. From 1957 to 1982, the Congress party ruled the state without interruption with eight chief ministers holding office. Devraj Urs served as the final one. However, the 1983 elections marked a dramatic change in the southern state as only 82 of the 224 seats in Congress remained. The party’s vote share decreased from 44.2 per cent to 40.4 per cent. The Janata party gained 95 seats, with a third of the vote in this assembly election, while the BJP secured only 18 seats. With the help of the BJP and other smaller parties, the Janata Party formed the state’s first non-Congress government, and elected Ramakrishna Hegde, a Brahmin from the Uttara Kannada district, as chief minister. The party regained control in the 1985 assembly elections, winning 139 seats and increasing its vote share by 10.5 per cent points. Hegde, however, resigned as chief minister in 1988 as a result of a negative High Court decision in a case involving telephone tapping. SR Bommai, a Lingayat chief from the Dharwad region, took charge of the state. However, on 21 April 1989, the state government was overthrown and President’s Rule was imposed when Congress asserted that the Bommai government had lost its majority. Following that, in a landmark decision came from the Supreme Court that profoundly affected state politics in India. The apex court ruled that it was unconstitutional to dissolve the state government before allowing the chief minister to demonstrate his majority on the House floor. Although national elections for the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies had already been called, Bommai was unable to take office again because of the timing of the ruling. 1989 saw a significant return for the Congress party, which gained 178 seats, while the Janata Dal (the Janata Party’s new incarnation) secured only 24 seats. Its vote share decreased dramatically, by 16.5 per cent points. The Congress party did not, however, manage to put together a stable administration despite having a substantial majority. The frequent leadership transitions were to blame for this. In 1989, Veerendra Patil, who had previously held the position of chief minister in the 1970s, retook office, however, only for 10 months before being succeeded by Bangarappa in 1990. Veerappa Moily, another backwards-class politician from the Dakshina Kannada district, succeeded Bangarappa after two years in 1992. The grand-old party Congress suffered a crushing defeat in the 1994 elections with only 34 seats. As an incumbent, the party saw a massive decline in vote share of 16.8 per cent points. However, Congress regained power in 1999 after it gained 132 seats in the assembly elections. The incumbent Janata Parivar fell from 115 to 28 and the Janata Dal (Secular) only managed to win ten seats, while the Janata Dal (United) secured 18 seats. This resulted in the political faction’s overall vote share falling to 24 per cent. The BJP then joined forces with the JD(U) as part of the National Democratic Alliance, securing 44 seats and breaking the 20.7 per cent threshold for the first time. In the upcoming 2004 elections, the Congress had joined forces with the JD(S) to form an unbalanced administration. Dharam Singh, an OBC member of Congress, was appointed chief minister, while an OBC member of the JD(S), Siddaramaiah served as deputy chief minister. The leader of the JD(S), Kumaraswamy, covertly teamed up with the leader of the BJP, BS Yediyurappa, to overthrow the Dharam Singh administration, but this alliance only lasted for two years. Kumaraswamy became the chief minister and Yediyurappa the deputy chief minister. The following 2008 elections saw BJP becoming the single-largest party with 110 seats in the assembly. The saffron party, with the help of independent MLAs, formed the government and Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat politician from the Shivamogga district, was appointed chief minister. In August 2011, the leader of the Vokkaliga from the Dakshina Kannada region, Sadananda Gowda, succeeded him. A different Lingayat leader from the Dharwad district named Jagadish Shettar followed Gowda in July 2012. In comparison to Congress, which increased from 65 to 80 seats, the JD(S) seat share decreased from 58 to 28. 2013 witnessed Congress coming back to power with a majority of 122 seats in the assembly elections that were held after five years. The party’s vote share rose by 1.8 per cent points. This was a major setback for the BJP. With a 20.1 per cent vote compared to 19 per cent in 2008, the JD(S) gained the same number of seats as the BJP, i.e. 40. With a vote share of around 20 per cent, the BJP, the incumbent party, lost 70 seats compared to 2008. After Devraj Urs, Siddaramaiah was elected as the new chief minister and completed a full five-year tenure. The 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections witnessed a heated rivalry between the Congress and the BJP. After obtaining 117 out of 224 seats, Congress and the JD(S) formed a coalition government. Congress won 80 seats (42 fewer than its 2013 total), while the BJP won 104 seats (improving its total from the 2013 election by 64 seats). The coalition government was only in place for a short time when the BJP abruptly returned to power by manipulating defections from other parties. Also read: Karnataka Results: Shivakumar or Siddaramaiah? Who will be Congress’ CM pick? Summary Karnataka has seen Congress rule for more than four decades of the seven decades after Independence, including a continuous 26-year period followed by four periods beginning in 1989. In the recent assembly elections, the incumbent and opposition are once more involved in a bitter struggle. It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself. With inputs from agencies Read all the  Latest News ,  Trending News ,  Cricket News ,  Bollywood News , India News  and  Entertainment News  here. Follow us on  Facebook,  Twitter and  Instagram.