Explained: The 3 big factors behind Javier Milei’s win in Argentina’s midterm elections

How did Argentine President Javier Milei overcome opposition to his harsh austerity measures, anger over corruption scandals and a run on the national currency to win a resounding victory in Sunday’s midterm elections?

Analysts and voters point to the president’s three trump cards: his success in driving down inflation, fears of financial turmoil in the event of his defeat, and ongoing opposition to the long-serving Peronist movement, which he unseated in 2023.

Peronists no more

Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party garnered 40.7 per cent of the votes for members of Congress, compared to 31.6 per cent for the centre-left Peronist movement, results from 98.9 per cent of polling stations showed.

The final results will not be known for days.

The rejection of Peronism, a movement advocating for strong state intervention in the economy and social justice that governed for much of the past two decades, “counted for more” than Milei’s political woes and “the wear and tear” of power, Carlos Fara, president of the International Association of Political Consultants told AFP.

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Fellow political scientist Sergio Berensztein said that the Peronists were to blame for their own demise.

“Not only was there no self-criticism for the disasters carried out by previous governments, but there was also no overarching response to the reform agenda set out by the government,” he said.

Fara added that a deepening standoff between Milei and Congress, which threatened to create political paralysis, also left voters “disillusioned and lacking energy.”

In recent weeks, Congress has blocked Milei’s vetoes of inflation-linked spending increases on universities, healthcare, and disability care.

The opposition’s message focused on “putting a stop to Milei,” and “proposing more of the same, without any alternative to Milei’s economic plan,” said independent political scientist Carlos Germano.

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The perceived lack of a viable alternative to Milei’s agenda translated into a historically small turnout of around 67 per cent – the lowest in over 40 years in Argentina, where voting is compulsory.

It’s the inflation, stupid

Many Argentines feel a debt of gratitude to Milei for slashing what was one of the world’s highest inflation rates – even if it was achieved through biting austerity that eroded the purchasing power of the middle class and left many pensioners and other vulnerable groups on the breadline.

In pursuit of his overarching goal of a balanced budget, Milei cut tens of thousands of public sector jobs, as well as funding for science, education, health and public works.

Yet despite the resulting hardship, Argentines remain more traumatised by the memory of double-digit monthly inflation, Shila Vilker, director of the consulting firm Trespuntozero, told AFP.

“I wouldn’t underestimate the stability and control of inflation, which is extremely valuable in the psyche of a good portion of Argentines,” Vilker added.

Economic stability

Fears of a financial debacle that would trigger a fresh spike in inflation in the event of Milei’s defeat also weighed heavily.

In the weeks leading up to the vote, Argentines got a taste of what possibly lay in store as investors dumped pesos for dollars over Milei’s array of political and financial woes.

A multibillion-dollar aid package from the United States, which US President Donald Trump conditioned on Milei’s electoral success, helped calm market jitters.

“The appearance of US aid in the campaign helped prevent the dollar issue from exploding,” Germano noted.

But the aid was not “transcendental,” he said.

Voters, he explained, were simply keen to give Milei more time to implement policies seen as preferable to the big spending ways of the Peronists.

The election “will at least bring a bit of peace of mind in the face of so much uncertainty about what would happen if things went wrong,” Juan Salvatori, a 52-year-old administrator, told AFP.

Patricio Mejuto, 37, echoed that view.

“They made a mistake with pensioners and with the Garrahan Pediatric Hospital”, targeted by Milei’s spending cuts, he said.

“But they can adapt, there’s still time,” he added.