How Hurricane Melissa went from a tropical storm to the most powerful of the year

Three deaths and it hasn’t even made landfall yet. We are talking about Hurricane Melissa, which is barrelling towards Jamaica and is expected to be the most powerful hurricane to ever make a direct hit on the island.

In fact, Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness warned on Monday (October 27) that if the Category 5 storm was to hit with full force then “I don’t believe there is any infrastructure within this region that could withstand a Category 5 storm, so there could be significant dislocation”.

Jamaican officials have called on the public to get to higher ground and shelters before Melissa makes a landfall, expected today (October 28). According to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in the United States, the storm will cause “destructive winds” and “catastrophic flooding”, which it forecast to worsen throughout the day and night.

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Hurricane Melissa puts the Caribbean on edge, Jamaica braces for one of the strongest storms Hurricane Melissa strengthens to Category 3, menacing Jamaica and Haiti with catastrophic flooding

Now, as people prepare for the storm, we take a closer look at just what makes it strongest storm on the planet this year and what it means for the people of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa: From tropical storm to Category 5 in few days

What makes Hurricane Melissa particularly dangerous is that it has undergone, what experts call rapid intensification — a climate-charged phenomenon that’s increasingly sending devastating storms to the region.

On Saturday morning, Melissa was still just a tropical storm. But in under a day, the storm’s wind speeds increased from about 115 kilometres per hour to 225 kilometres per hour on Sunday. By Monday morning, it had become a Category 5 hurricane, one of the fastest intensifications ever seen in the Caribbean.

By that afternoon, the winds reached speeds of 281 kilometres per hour, according to the US NHC, making it the strongest storm on the planet so far in 2025.

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This footage from inside the eye of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa might be the most jaw-dropping video ever captured of a hurricane’s eye, showcasing the infamous “stadium effect." pic.twitter.com/AEhj2g2Ban

— Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) October 27, 2025

But what caused this rapid transformation of the storm? According to scientists, it is probably a symptom of the rapid heating of the world’s oceans. “That part of the Atlantic is extremely warm right now – around 30 degrees Celsius [86 degrees Fahrenheit], which is 2 to 3C above normal,” said Akshay Deoras, a meteorologist at the University of Reading, in the United Kingdom. “And it’s not just the surface. The deeper layers of the ocean are also unusually warm, providing a vast reservoir of energy for the storm.”

Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, a US-based research group, also agreed that Hurricane Melissa underwent rapid intensification and pointed the finger at climate change. “It does not mean that every single tropical cyclone is going to go through rapid or super-rapid intensification. However, in our warmer world, it will continue to increase the likelihood of storms going through rapid and super-rapid intensification,” she was quoted as telling The Guardian.

And science shows that the experts are correct. A 2023 study found that Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to intensify rapidly from minor storms to powerful and catastrophic events.

The rapid intensification of Hurricane Melissa also complicates disaster preparations — officials might be preparing for a weaker storm, only to suddenly face one far worse.

Slow-moving Melissa likely to cause more destruction

While Hurricane Melissa went from being a tropical storm to a Category 5 storm in just a few days, scientists tracking it have noted that it is slow-moving. In fact, weather watchers have said that it’s drifting at just two miles per hour, slower than the average person on an afternoon stroll.

But it’s snail-like pace is exactly what makes Hurricane Melissa dangerous. A slow-moving storm is expected to linger more, inundating the island and buffeting it with winds. Experts said that Melissa’s slow pace may mean prolonged torrential rain in some areas, increasing the risk of deadly flooding and landslides.

And the NHC concurred. It said that the storm now moving at five mph will cause more damage. “This extreme rainfall potential, owing to the slow motion, is going to create a catastrophic event here for Jamaica,” NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said.

Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the UK’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, also said the same. “Because it’s moving very slowly, Melissa is very, very dangerous. If a tropical cyclone is moving slowly, then it means that whenever it will start dumping rain over Jamaica, it will give more chances for a lot of rainfall.”

‘Catastrophic’ conditions await Jamaica

And ahead of Hurricane Melissa’s landfall in Jamaica, officials are bracing for ‘catastrophic’ conditions, with the US NHC warning of “catastrophic” flash flooding, landslides and destructive winds that could cause lengthy power and communications outages, along with “extensive infrastructural damage”.

Up to 40 inches (about a metre) of rainfall has been forecast, with deluges expected to bring flash flooding and landslides to Jamaica as well as Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba. A storm surge is also likely along Jamaica’s southern coast, with waters potentially rising some 13 feet, along with “destructive waves”.

NHC director Michael Brennan warned Jamaicans: “Do not venture outside with catastrophic life threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides expected through Tuesday.” He also advised not to “go out in the eye as it passes over your area. The forward speed of Melissa is going to increase and the eye is going to start to move very quickly across the island”.

Meanwhile, Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness has ordered the immediate evacuation of several vulnerable communities across the island. In a post on X, he urged “every Jamaican to prepare, stay indoors during the storm, and comply with evacuation orders”.

“We will weather this storm and rebuild stronger,” he wrote.

“You have been warned. It’s now up to you to use that information to make the right decision,” he said during a briefing, and told CNN, “I don’t believe there is any infrastructure within this region that could withstand a Category 5 storm, so there could be significant dislocation.”

Speaking on its evacuation efforts, Desmond Mackenzie, Jamaica’s minister of local government and community development, said Sunday night that 218 people were already in some of the country’s 881 shelters. As of Monday morning, all of the island’s shelters were open, but many were still not full.

Visuals from the area showed residents filling up gas canisters for their generators and boarding up windows to prepare for the intense wind and rain. Zookeepers in the capital city were relocating their animals ahead of the storm.

Jamaica’s geography likely to worsen the situation

Experts have also noted that Jamaica’s mountains is likely to make Hurricane Melissa even more potent than it already is. That’s because water rushing downhill is unpredictable. “When you get a storm like this that is approaching the higher echelons of what we have observed, it’s harrowing, especially because it is pointing at a populated island with complex terrain,” said Kim Wood, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Arizona. “You’re dealing with a funnelling effect, where that water, as it falls, will then join other water that’s coming down the mountainside and exacerbate the impacts.”

Haiti, Cuba and Dominican Republic to also feel Melissa

The storm has already drenched the Dominican Republic, where schools and government offices were ordered to remain closed on Monday in four of nine provinces still under the most serious form of weather alert.

Melissa damaged more than 750 homes across the country and displaced more than 3,760 people. Floodwaters also have cut access to at least 48 communities, officials said.

In neighbouring Haiti, the storm destroyed crops in three regions, including 15 hectares (37 acres) of maize at a time when at least 5.7 million people, more than half of the country’s population, are experiencing crisis levels of hunger.

The storm is also forecast to move southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night, and across southeastern or central Bahamas on Wednesday, forecasters at the NHC said.

And as Jamaicans wait for the strongest storm of this year, may be it’s time to pray as the Jamaican PM said.

With inputs from agencies