What future looks like for Arvind Kejriwal and AAP after Delhi drubbing

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has suffered a major jolt in Delhi as voters rejected it after a decade in power. The crushing defeat became more bitter with the drubbing of the party’s top leaders including AAP chief and former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and former Deputy CM Manish Sisodia.

For the AAP, the Delhi loss could have a ripple effect, with Kejriwal’s political future on the line. All eyes are also on Punjab, the only state where the AAP is now in power. But why?

Let’s take a look.

What Delhi loss means for Arvind Kejriwal

The AAP has been reduced to just 22 out of 70 seats in Delhi from 62 in 2020. But its vote share of 43.57 per cent is just 1.99 per cent behind the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP).

Not only has the AAP lost Delhi to the saffron party, but its chief Kejriwal also failed to retain his seat. The AAP supremo was defeated by the BJP’s Parvesh Verma by a margin of 4,089 votes.

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Sisodia, Saurabh Bharadwaj, Satyendar Jain and Somnath Bharti were among the other AAP bigwigs trounced by the BJP.

For Kejriwal, the Delhi Assembly election was not just a political but a personal battle. This is the first time Kejriwal has lost the elections from New Delhi after his first win against the then Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit of the Congress in 2013.

The AAP chief, whose party rose to power in Delhi for the first time in 2013 on an anti-corruption plank, was facing corruption charges. Kejriwal spent six months in jail last year in connection with an alleged excise policy scam.

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He has been out on bail since September 2024. In January this year, the Union Home Ministry granted sanction to the Enforcement Directorate (ED) to prosecute Kejriwal under the anti-money laundering law in the Delhi liquor policy case. The CBI is also probing the case.

According to Supreme Court lawyer Nipun Saxena, the minimum jail term in the money laundering case is seven years if convicted, reported CNBC TV18. If Kejriwal had won from the New Delhi seat and later found guilty in the case, he would have been disqualified from holding office under the Representation of the People Act, 1951.

Now, he would be treated as a common citizen and face the legal process. An FIR was lodged against the AAP chief in Kurukshetra recently over his remarks on the alleged “poisoning” of the Yamuna river water by the Haryana government.

A victory for Kejriwal would have reaffirmed his popularity and shown Delhi’s voters had sympathy for him amid his legal troubles.

The AAP’s rout and Kejriwal’s defeat have also hurt the AAP chief’s personal brand. Kejriwal, who harped on the party’s “clean politics”, was mired by corruption allegations and the “Sheesh Mahal” controversy.

The BJP tried to corner the AAP over the costly renovation of the Chief Minister’s residence when Kejriwal was in office, referring to it as Sheesh Mahal.

For Kejriwal, who crafted his image as a political leader rejecting opulence, this controversy was apparently perceived by the Delhi voters as a “symbol of hypocrisy”, as per a Moneycontrol report.

Before resigning as the Delhi CM following his bail last September, Kejriwal had said he would not return to the CM’s chair until he gets the people’s mandate as a “certificate of (his) honesty”, terming it as his “agnipariksha”.

The AAP chief has lost this trial by fire. The win in Delhi would have been sweeter as the AAP would have returned to power in the national capital for a fourth straight term. With this, Kejriwal would have become the only opposition leader post-2014 to defeat the BJP three times in a row.

Conceding defeat, Kejriwal has vowed to play the role of a constructive opposition. “We did a lot of work in the last decade… We improved, we did a lot of work on improving water availability and the infrastructure… But we will not give up… We will not just be a constructive opposition but will also do social work, and help people in our personal capacity. We did not come into politics for power, we came to serve the people,” he said in his first reaction after the Delhi election results.

pic.twitter.com/X2CKGVpE9G

— Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) February 8, 2025

Why spotlight is on Punjab

The AAP’s loss has put the spotlight on Punjab. Kejriwal’s party would now have to focus on keeping its flock together.

AAP leaders admit the Delhi defeat could have repercussions in Punjab, where the party’s government is led by CM Bhagwant Mann.

“The AAP has similar big-ticket projects in both Delhi and Punjab, such as free power and mohalla clinics. Kejriwal’s popularity in Delhi had created a similar effect in Punjab. It was after the AAP’s victories in Delhi that Punjab’s electorate voted for AAP in the 2022 Assembly elections. How we do in Delhi certainly has an impact in Punjab,” an AAP leader in Punjab told Indian Express.

Leaders in Punjab believe Kejriwal would now focus on the state, which will go to polls in two years. There are concerns that this could create a discord between him and Mann.

The Punjab Congress has sensed an opportunity in AAP’s Delhi rout, with speculations rising about an internal revolt in Kejriwal’s party and a possibility of midterm elections.

Senior Congress leader Partap Singh Bajwa even claimed to Indian Express that Kejriwal would now head to Punjab “to become CM of the state”, predicting a power struggle between the AAP chief and CM Mann. “There may be widespread defections amongst AAP MLAs in Punjab,” Bajwa asserted.

The BJP also believes the AAP’s drubbing in Delhi will have an impact in Punjab and plans to increase its outreach to voters.

AAP sources told the newspaper that the senior leadership would concentrate more on Punjab, as well as other states – with the party’s national ambitions still on track. “All is not lost. We still are a national party and are running a government in Punjab with a more than comfortable majority. The loss in Delhi is an opportunity to expand into other states and consolidate our positions there,” a senior leader told Indian Express.

With inputs from agencies