How AAP's defeat in Delhi will influence national politics

After the shock, disappointment, and euphoria—depending on individual leanings—of yesterday’s results have settled, it is time to disentangle the strands to decipher their implications on national politics. While the jubilation in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wrestling back power after a long interregnum of 28 years is understandable, the quiet rejoicing within Congress despite scoring a zero has intrigued many – as indeed was its decision to contest the elections without aligning with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the first place.

BJP’s victory celebrations in Delhi—a Union Territory, which some may regard as a mega municipality—were of a much larger order than what it was after winning assembly elections in some large states. It may be argued that had the BJP won against Sheila Dikshit after her third term in 2015, one would not have seen so much confetti being showered at the party headquarters. The reactions of both the BJP and the Congress underscore the importance of Arvind Kejriwal, or what he had come to mean in Indian politics, that even the most trenchant critics, including this writer, would have to grudgingly grant.

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Kejriwal catapulted himself into national politics riding the wave of the “India Against Corruption” movement, which he later appropriated, discarding Anna Hazare as a used tea bag. Fast forward to Delhi Chief Minister, he assiduously built a pan-India profile for himself as a crusader through deft media management that appealed to the middle class and, over time, to the economically weaker sections through promises of freebies and hyped-up welfare schemes for health and education.

Though the immediate damage was caused to the BJP in Delhi, as its grassroots organisation had withered after being out of power for fifteen years, over time it began to dent the Congress. This was first evident in Gujarat and then Goa, where the AAP managed to eat into Congress’ vote share, but the biggest blow was Punjab, where it formed the government in 2022, stealing the mandate from under Rahul Gandhi’s nose, who had assumed it was for him to take after his ‘masterstroke’ of replacing Capt Amarinder Singh with his handpicked nominee Charanjit Singh Channi. That, in a way, was the coming of age for Kejriwal, and it was apparent in his palpable reluctance to play second fiddle to any other leader—least of all Rahul Gandhi—in the I.N.D.I. Alliance and, subsequently, to go with the Congress in the Haryana elections.

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The preamble was necessary to unravel what could be the reason for the vicarious pleasure that the Congress seems to be deriving from not just the loss of AAP but Kejriwal biting the dust in his own constituency—for which many consider the Congress candidate, Sandeep Dikshit, responsible. However, there is a larger story underlying this. Kejriwal posed a greater threat to Rahul Gandhi’s ambition of the unchallenged choice of the united opposition in the run-up to the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, causing further damage to Congress’ prospects in other states along the way, if he was allowed to further consolidate his position in Delhi—which not only gave him visibility to bolster his personal profile but also resources to expand AAP’s national footprint.

Counter-intuitive as the theory may sound, it would have made sense had the Congress not turned out a hat trick of ducks in the Delhi elections. It is difficult to imagine that such a performance would inspire much confidence among other regional leaders to accept Rahul Gandhi as the first among equals. After the Congress’ performance in Haryana, Maharashtra, and now Delhi, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) would have to think hard on whether it would like to go for the polls in Bihar as a cohort of the Congress. One is already seeing a drift of Shiv Sena UBT MLAs to the Shinde camp in Maharashtra. At this point, one can only conjecture about the ripples of these results in Karnataka. But that would be in the realms of speculation.

As far as the AAP goes, there is no gainsaying that the results are an indictment of Arvind Kejriwal and his brand of politics. He had himself said that these elections were a referendum on him. Though disingenuity has been his trademark, it would be difficult for him to claim otherwise. The outpourings of some of his former associates, like Kumar Vishwas and Swati Maliwal, are testimonies to the kind of negative emotions he arouses, and one cannot help thinking that Kejriwal has been the cause of his own undoing.

One would not be surprised if colleagues like Manish Sisodia feel that they were thrown under the bus and Atishi Marlena decides to assert her position now that she has won her seat and Kejriwal is out of the assembly. Thus, a meltdown in the AAP cannot be ruled out, which would suit the BJP. It would be interesting to watch Bhagwant Mann’s demeanour after this. Though the idea of Mann defecting to another party may be far-fetched, he is unlikely to play second fiddle to his “National Convenor”.

Many say Arvind Kejriwal is quite capable of reinventing himself and staging a comeback. But with his credibility severely damaged, without a position and restricted resources, it is going to be a long haul barring miracles.

Obviously, the biggest beneficiary will be the BJP. For Modi and Amit Shah, Kejriwal was more than a thorn. All said he was a disruptor and a maverick—who does not carry any of Rahul Gandhi’s dynastic tag. He wears the robe of secularism lightly, effortlessly going to Iftar gatherings after taking a dip in the Ganges, equally comfortable putting a tika on his forehead as he is donning a skullcap. BJP can now train its guns singularly on the Gandhi Dynasty’s “Parivarvad” and associated baggage.

Some have opined that this may be an opportunity for Congress to go back to the drawing board. They may be partly right. Nature abhors vacuum. In fact, Kejriwal had made use of the space vacated by Congress to inveigle his way into the national psyche. It may be argued that, although Kejriwal has been defeated, the original idea of AAP is still not dead. It would be a tall order for the Congress and its present leadership to reclaim that space. The nation cannot remain without a credible and viable opposition for long. Hence, if anything, the development in Delhi may have opened a door for a new order of leadership to emerge—perhaps from the woodworks of the grand old party, where many leaders have been waiting in the wings, ready and impatient to break out.

The author is a public affairs commentator. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.