Kejri-fall: Did the middle class’ ire dethrone AAP from Delhi?

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is headed for defeat after 10 years of power in Delhi. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) “double engine” is poised to take over the national capital, unseating Arvind Kejriwal’s party and forming the government in the city after nearly three decades.

According to the early trends from the Election Commission of India (ECI), the BJP has comfortably crossed the halfway mark of 35 by leading in 37 seats and winning 11 others. The AAP is ahead in 12 seats and has bagged 10, while the Congress is out of the picture.

It was a high-stakes election for all three major parties. Delhi has chosen its future for the next five years, picking the BJP over AAP. But after a decade in power, what went wrong for Kejriwal’s party?

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Let’s take a look.

Delhi Election Results 2025: How AAP bigwigs are faring

Many top AAP leaders have failed to retain their seats.

Former Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal is behind the BJP’s Parvesh Sahib Singh Verma by a margin of over 4,000 votes from the New Delhi constituency, as per EC’s trends at 2.11 pm.

Former Delhi Deputy CM Manish Sisodia has conceded defeat from the Jangpura Assembly seat, losing to BJP’s Tarvinder Singh Marwah by just 675 votes.

Delhi minister and senior AAP leader Saurabh Bhardwaj lost the Greater Kailash seat to the BJP’s Shikha Roy, who won by more than 3,100 votes.

The BJP’s Karnail Singh has defeated former Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain in Shakur Basti by a huge margin of over 20,000 votes.

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But it is not all bad news for the AAP.

Delhi CM Atishi, who was earlier trailing from the Kalkaji Assembly seat, has trounced BJP’s Ramesh Bidhuri by 3,521 votes.

Delhi minister Gopal Rai has won Babarpur by over 18,000 votes, defeating the BJP’s Anil Kumar Vashisht.

AAP’s Imran Hussain has defeated the BJP’s Kamal Bagri by 29,823 votes from the Ballimaran seat.

Amanatullah Khan is leading in Okhla by more than 22,000 votes, leaving behind All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) candidate Shifa Ur Rehman Khan.

What’s behind AAP’s loss?

The Delhi election results have dashed hopes of the AAP for a fourth consecutive victory. This was the toughest electoral battle for Kejriwal’s party. The AAP, which first came to power in Delhi in 2013, was battling 10 years of anti-incumbency.

The AAP’s welfare schemes and focus on health, education, and electricity contributed to its meteoric ascent in the national capital. This was visible in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly election results as Kejriwal’s party stormed to power with a decisive mandate of 67 and 62 seats, respectively.

This time, the AAP, which had won the middle class with its anti-corruption poll plank in 2013, was itself battling corruption allegations. In the run-up to the elections, the BJP relentlessly attacked the AAP over the costly renovation of the Chief Minister’s residence when Kejriwal was in office, referring to it as Sheesh Mahal. The Congress also tried to corner the AAP over the issue, denting the party ‘Aam Aadmi’ image.

In April 2024, just 10 months before the Delhi elections, AAP’s senior leaders including party chief Kejriwal, Sisodia, Satyendar Jain and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh were in jail.

While Jain was imprisoned in an alleged money laundering case, the other AAP bigwigs were in jail in an alleged liquor scam. All of them were released on bail between August and October last year.

Senior AAP leaders are now blaming the incarceration of the top brass for the party failing to mount a better challenge to the BJP as it did in the previous two elections. “While the leaders were in jail, the party was in a limbo of sorts. This also led to a lot of disgruntlement among councillors who were frustrated because the MCD [Municipal Corporation of Delhi] functioning had collapsed under the AAP and no work was being done. There was no one to calm the temperatures then. This had an impact on how elections were contested months down the line,” an AAP leader told Indian Express.

After Kejriwal’s party won the MCD elections in 2022, it could not shift the blame on the BJP for not allowing it to work.

A deadlock remains in the MCD House which hurt the AAP due to stalled projects. “We could not improve roads or ensure better garbage management… In gated colonies and middle- and upper middle-class areas, the poor condition of the roads has emerged as a significant issue,” a senior AAP leader had told Indian Express before the Delhi elections.

Even after 10 years in power, Kejriwal’s party failed to solve Delhi’s pollution woes for which it held the BJP governments in neighbouring states responsible. The AAP attracted the middle class’ ire over poor condition of the city’s roads and sewers. Dirty streets, overflowing drains, and irregular water supply further angered the voters.

The middle class did not benefit from the AAP’s welfare schemes, which gave the party an image that it works only for the poor. While Kejriwal did try to woo the middle class in the end, it seems it did not bear fruit.

Notably, the middle class constitutes 67.16 per cent of Delhi’s population, as per a 2022 report by the People Research on India’s Consumer Economy. The BJP was able to lure the middle class as well as the poor this time.

The AAP’s tussle with successive Lieutenant Governors (LGs) also harmed its prospects. The Delhi government was constantly at loggerheads with the Centre-appointed LGs, accusing them of holding up projects.

From Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ex-Congress chief and Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi, prominent politicians took a dig at the AAP for constantly blaming the Centre for Delhi’s lack of development and its government’s functioning. As per Indian Express, the opposition parties in Delhi were able to successfully project the AAP’s explanation as “excuses”.

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What does it mean for AAP?

The AAP’s Delhi loss could hurt the party in other states. The rise of Kejriwal’s party coincided with the Congress’ decline in the national capital as well as Punjab.

The AAP had defeated the Congress to come to power in Delhi for the first time in 2013. In Punjab, the AAP secured a thumping victory with 92 seats, with the Congress being reduced to just 18 in the 2022 Assembly polls.

As per Economic Times (ET), Kejriwal’s troubles in Delhi could weaken its hold in Punjab, giving an advantage to the Congress. The AAP’s efforts to make inroads in the BJP’s bastion of Gujarat could also suffer a jolt.

The AAP and Congress are allies in the INDIA bloc. A comeback in Delhi for the AAP would have given the national alliance something to cheer about after the BJP’s successive victories in Haryana and Maharashtra. The INDIA bloc leaders have started blaming the allies contesting the polls separately for the Delhi loss.

The AAP’s defeat, however, could benefit the Congress, which believes it can gain its lost ground in the national capital with the demise of Kejriwal’s party in the long run, according to Indian Express.

With inputs from agencies