Bihar exit polls 2025: NDA's clean sweep, Mahagathbandhan to shrink. The big takeaways

Voting for the Bihar Assembly polls concluded at 6 pm today (November 11).

Voting for the 243-member Assembly, for which the majority mark is 122 seats, took place in two phases. As of 5 pm, turnout was at 67.14 per cent in the second phase of polling. Bihar held its first phase of polling on November 6 in which the turnout was 60.18 per cent. Votes for the Bihar election are slated to be counted on November 14, 2025.

On one side you have the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with the BJP and the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) of long-time Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, while on the other side you have the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led by CM face Tejashwi Yadav and the Congress.

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A slew of top leaders including JD(U)’s acting president Sanjay Jha, Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor and State Congress chief Rajesh Ram cast their ballots on Tuesday.

Now, all eyes are on the exit polls, which were released after 6:30 pm.

But what did the Bihar exit polls show? What are the key takeaways? What do the exit polls show?

What exit polls show

Eleven pollsters including Matrize, JVC, P-Marq, People’s Insight, Dainik Bhaskar, Peoples Pulse, JVC, ABP, Chanakya Strategies, DV Research and TIF Research have predicted a massive win for the NDA in Bihar. Matrize has given the NDA between 147 and 167 seats, while P-Marq has estimated between 142 and 162 seats for the NDA.

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The News18 mega exit poll predicts that the NDA will win between 140 and 150 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan will get between 85 and 95 seats.

The _Dainik Bhaskar_ exit polls give the NDA anywhere from 145 to 160 seats, while People’s Insight has predicted around 133 to 148 seats for the alliance. Peoples Pulse has given the NDA between 133 and 159 seats, while JVC has estimated between 135 and 150 seats for the NDA. The ABP exit poll has projected between 133 and 148 seats for the NDA. Chanakya Strategies gives the NDA between 130 and 138 seats, while DV Research predicts 137 to 152 seats for the NDA. TIF Research estimates that the NDA will get between 145 and 163 seats.

Meanwhile, the exit polls predict that the Mahagathbandhan’s tally in Bihar will be reduced. Matrize has said the Grand Alliance will get between 70 and 90 seats while P-Marq says the Opposition will be reduced to between 80 and 98 seats. The Dainik Bhaskar exit polls give the alliance between 73 and 91 seats, while People’s Insight estimates their tally from 87 to 102 seats. Peoples Pulse has given the Grand Alliance between 75 and 101 seats, while JVC has estimated between 88 and 103 seats for the Opposition. The ABP exit polls have estimated between 87 and 102 seats for the Grand Alliance. Chanakya Strategies gives the Grand Alliance between 100 and 108 seats, while DV Research predicts 83 to 98 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. TIF Research estimates that the bloc will get between 76 and 95 seats.

Seven pollsters including Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, People's Insight, Peoples Pulse, Chanakya Strategies and TIF Research say that Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, which is making its electoral debut, may come a cropper in Bihar and may fail to even open its account. P-Marq has said the party may win between 1 and 4 seats, while JVC has said the new party may win between zero seats and a single seat. DV Research gives the JSP between 2 and 4 seats. The News18 poll predicts that the JSP will get between 0 and 5 seats.

Poll of polls and key takeaways

The eleven exit polls estimate the NDA’s tally between 130 and 167 seats with an average of 148.5 seats. All the pollsters are clearly predicting a big win in favour of the NDA, which means that Nitish will likely retain power and continue his reign in Bihar. Most pollsters, including Matrize, JVC, P-Marq, People’s Insight, Dainik Bhaskar and Peoples Pulse, predict that the coalition will comfortably clear the 122-seat halfway mark in the Bihar Assembly. This indicates that the voters may likely hand the ruling NDA a big mandate.

The exit polls put the Mahagathbandhan’s tally between 70 at the least and 108 at the most – an average of 89 seats. This means the Mahagathbandhan or the Grand Alliance comprising the RJD and the Congress will slip a little further in Bihar.

None of the pollsters predict that the Grand Alliance will even come close to the halfway mark of 122 seats in the Assembly. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which is making its electoral debut, is unlikely to make any waves and in fact may be facing a complete wipeout. All but a handful of pollsters think that the JSP has any real chance of winning more than a handful of seats.

What did the polls show last time?

In 2020, the exit polls showed that the National Democratic Alliance would lose in Bihar – which was completely incorrect. Most of the polls predicted that the Mahagathbandhan would emerge victorious in Bihar with around 125 seats – just over the magic mark of 122 seats. The pollsters also predicted that the NDA would grab just 108 seats. However, almost the exact opposite happened with the NDA taking 125 seats with the JD(U) accounting for 43 of those constituencies. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan was limited to just 110 seats, despite the RJD emerging as the single largest party with 75 seats.

In 2015, when the Grand Alliance still comprised the JD(U) – Kumar, aka ‘Paltu Ram’, would later turn back to the BJP-led NDA in 2017 – the exit polls were mixed. While three pollsters plumped for a Mahagathbandhan victory, two favoured the NDA. One predicted a hung Assembly. Here again, the pollsters got it wrong, with the Mahagathbandhan winning a massive 178 seats while the NDA prevailed in just 58 seats.

With inputs from agencies