 "JD(U) party members celebrate as the NDA alliance leads during the counting of votes of the Bihar Assembly elections, in Patna. PTI")
While campaigning for the Bihar election, Home Minister Amit Shah had prophesised, “The NDA will win 160 seats (and) form the government with two-thirds majority.” And today (November 14), the political gods have smiled down on the ruling alliance in the state, with trends indicating a landslide victory.
The NDA, made up of the BJP, the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), is on course to smash past its lofty “160 paar” target in Bihar in the 243-member Assembly.
Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan is shaping up to be a distant second. Electoral strategist Prashant Kishor, who was hoping to be kingmaker in Bihar, was nowhere in the picture, and even Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM seemed to be pushed right down in the list.
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But what has contributed to the NDA’s thumping victory? We analyse and get you the answers.
The Nitish Kumar factor
The biggest advantage for the NDA in the Bihar elections has undoubtedly been Nitish Kumar, the veteran politician. The results show that the chief minister is still a force to reckon with in the state of Bihar.
But what is it about Nitish Kumar that Bihar loves? First and foremost, it is his undeniable connect with the women voters of the state. In past elections too, women have been a key vote bank for Nitish Kumar, regardless of their caste. And since he has assumed office in 2005, he has come out with several women-centric programmes, such as the cycle and uniform schemes for girls and the prohibition of alcohol.
And this election too, he solidified his women voter base with the Rs 10,000 scheme for 1.3 crore women — named the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana. This scheme is routed through self-help groups called Jeevika that have become a major instrument in the government’s hands.
But it’s not just that. Despite facing rumours and allegations of poor health — he was called out for reading out written speeches in his public meetings — Nitish Kumar campaigned hard during the polls. He attended 84 rallies, just one fewer than Tejashwi, who is decades younger than him, reports the Indian Express. The CM also carried the weight of the NDA’s entire campaigning.
The freebie factor
Perhaps, what swayed the Bihar voters towards the NDA is the campaign promise of 125 units of free electricity per household every month and a Rs 1,000 monthly stipend for unemployed youth for up to two years. Pensions for widows and the elderly was also raised from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100, benefiting 1.12 crore families.
Additionally, over the past two months, the BJP-JD(U) coalition rolled out a flurry of welfare measures, including raising the honorarium of 95,000 ASHA workers and 4,600 Mamta workers. The ruling alliance also introduced ‘pink toilets’ and ‘pink buses’, as well as a women’s market, hostels for girls and subsidies for e-rickshaw buyers.
On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan promised Rs 2,500 monthly stipend for women, 200 units of free electricity, Rs 25 lakh medical insurance, and five decimals of land for the landless.
LJP’s stellar show
One of the reasons for the NDA’s stellar performance in the Bihar Assembly elections is the performance of the Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) party. The young politician has proved his political mettle with his party emerging as the fourth largest in the polls — the BJP leads the race, followed by the JD(U) and the RJD; the Congress lags behind at the seventh position.
And this comes after Paswan’s party won all five seats it contested in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. According to political pundits, Paswan’s decision to field candidates with cross-caste appeal has helped widen his footprint in the state. He also mixed emotion into his campaign, often invoking his late father, Ram Vilas Paswan’s legacy.
Chirag’s success also reflects the NDA’s social arithmetic. While the BJP and JD(U) consolidated their traditional vote bases, the LJP’s performance helped the alliance tap into Dalit and EBC pockets where the RJD once dominated.
A rejection of ‘katta sarkar’
Ahead of phase 2 of voting in the Bihar Assembly elections, PM Modi in a campaign rally had said that the state doesn’t want a gun-wielding government, attacking the RJD. “Nahi chahiye katta sarkaar, fir ek baar NDA sarkaar” (We don’t want a gun-wielding government; once again we want an NDA government), he said.
He further added that that the children of the state will become goons, not doctors or engineers if the RJD came to power. “Should a child from Bihar become a rangdaar or a doctor?" he asked, adding, “A child from Bihar will now become not a rangdaar, but an engineer, doctor, advocate, and judge in the court.”
“ Jungle rule means – gun, cruelty, bitterness, bad upbringing, and corruption. These are people filled with bad upbringing, who want the rule of misgovernance,” he added.
And it seems that PM Modi’s message resonated with the public, who believes that an RJD government would take Bihar back to jungle raj.
Focus on SIR
Political pundits also note that the Mahagathbandhan made the mistake of shifting its focus from the plank of lawlessness in the NDA regime to the SIR (special intensive revision) issue.
At several rallies, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi used the slogan “Vote Chori”, alleging that 25 lakh votes — nearly one in every eight — had been manipulated. He claimed the same pattern was visible in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra, calling it a “system of the BJP and Election Commission.”
But it appears that it was hardly a conversation amongst voters when the time to press the EVM button came.
Congress’ poor strike rate
Many believe that the Mahagathbandhan’s decision to allot 60-plus seats to the Congress, with a claim of “resurgence”, has proven costly. Trends show that the Congress has performed dismally, leading in just five seats.
And if you put all these factors together, you get the current situation in Bihar — a clean sweep for the NDA, with the RJD forced to simply look on with despair. NDTV summed up the elections correctly: the NDA banked on hope, the Mahagathbandhan turned to despair.
With inputs from agencies