Why the NDA’s win in Bihar elections matter beyond Patna

Bihar is on course to deliver a stupendous victory to the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) is set to form the government again, with a much bigger mandate than last time.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan has fizzled out, with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress both performing poorly. The election results in Bihar, one of the most politically aware states, carry a message for the entire country.

We explain.

The make-or-break ‘Mahila’ factor

Women of Bihar have spoken. The NDA’s shining victory can be credited to increased voter turnout, with more women than men coming out to exercise their franchise.

It was Bihar that first realised the significance of the women voters. In 2005, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar launched a scheme to provide cycles and uniforms to girls to encourage their participation in schools. His bet paid off as the girls’ enrolment surged and the dropout rate fell.

In 2016, “Sushasan Babu” Nitish banned liquor amid a rise in complaints from women about drunkenness and domestic violence. While the JD(U) supremo faced flak over the prohibition, he won women’s favour, as per Indian Express.

To woo these women voters, both alliances announced welfare schemes this time. The Nitish Kumar-led government rolled out ‘Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana’ (MMRY), a Rs 10,000 start-up grant with the promise of up to Rs 2 lakh as additional aid.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav announced a ‘Mai Bahin Maan Yojana’, vowing to give Rs 2,500 per month to each poor and backward woman.

However, women chose to place their trust again in the incumbent CM. The financial assistance schemes for women are already a tried and tested formula for the BJP/NDA governments — Ladli Behen Yojana in Madhya Pradesh and the Ladki Bahin Yojana in Maharashtra. These initiatives propelled the BJP’s return to power in Madhya Pradesh in 2023 and its alliance Mahayuti’s in Maharashtra last year.

With Bihar going with NDA again, these cash incentives for women could become the template for political parties in future elections.

As the ruling alliance heads to a landslide victory, the strong mandate driven by women could make waves beyond Bihar – West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala in 2026 and Uttar Pradesh in 2027.

Caste math adds up

Bihar is a complex state with caste playing a crucial role in elections.

Poll strategist Prashant Kishor tried to move beyond Bihar’s caste politics, building a narrative around the state’s development. However, his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) drew a blank in the 2025 Assembly elections.

No one party wins Bihar. Instead, the state reaffirms the importance of coalition politics.

And, as per News18, the victor in Bihar is the alliance that gets the caste arithmetic right.

Bihar’s caste survey released in 2023 found that Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) comprise 36.01 per cent of the state’s population, OBCs 27.12 per cent, Scheduled Castes 19.65 per cent, and Scheduled Tribes 1.68 per cent.

Neerja Chowdhury, veteran journalist and author, wrote for the Indian Express that with incumbent CM Nitish Kumar’s push, Bihar has been a “laboratory for political empowerment of the numerically large but disorganised EBCs”. “In an evolving democracy, the EBCs have emerged as the “X factor” in recent elections across North India,” she wrote.

Next year, elections are due in the states of West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Bihar polls are being seen as precursor to these upcoming state elections.

“The Bihar election holds far-reaching national significance, serving as a bellwether for shifting political tides and strategies in India. The outcome will set the political tenor for subsequent state polls in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala,” Chowdhury told DW.

Blow to opposition unity?

The Mahagathbandhan’s poor showing in the Bihar elections has raised questions about the opposition’s electoral strategy.

While Tejashwi Yadav’s jobs promise attracted young voters during campaigning, it failed to outshine the support of other groups for Nitish Kumar. As per Indian Express, the RJD leader could not “break out of the mould of a Muslim-Yadav leader”.

The opposition alliance’s campaign was mainly built around Tejashwi’s leadership and focus on jobs, women’s empowerment, and governance.

The poll results are likely to have an impact on the unity of the INDIA bloc, sparking questions about the leadership and reopening rifts among alliance partners.

If the Mahagathbandhan had won in Bihar — India’s poorest state, it would have shown that the electorate can be swayed by bread-and-butter issues — jobs, inflation, and welfare. However, its defeat reflects that the opposition is yet to find an alternative narrative that resonates with the electorate on a large scale.

The Bihar elections will frame the opposition’s strategy going forward as India heads to another election cycle next year.

With inputs from agencies