With Assad gone in Syria, is Russia turning to Libya for new base in West Asia & Africa?

Russia is staring at an uncertain future in Syria and West Asia following the collapse of the Assad dynasty.

While there are signs that Russia has reached an uneasy understanding with Syrian opposition groups , there are also signs of Russia seeking hub in the region.

For decades, Syria had been Russia’s hub of operations in West Asia and Africa. Through its two military bases at Tartus and Latakia in the western part of the country, Russia not just supported Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian Civil War but also its own operations in the region. The Tartus naval base allowed Russia to project power along the southern flank of Nato and create a maritime bridge between West Asia and the Ukraine front via the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea.

As Russia has started withdrawing personnel and equipment from Syria, there are signs that Russia is looking to Libya as a new hub in the region.

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While Russia cannot recreate the hold that it had in Syria under Assad’s regime, it can very well offset the damage if it manages to secure a port or a military base in Libya. In Syria, even though it's Assad who has been defeated, the loss was essentially Russia's as it was Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War starting in 2015 that propped Assad’s regime. As Russia’s ability to bolster Assad’s position eroded because of distraction in Ukraine, the opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized the opportunity as another principal ally, Iran, stood battered and was unable to help.

Is Russia turning to Libya after losing in Syria?

There is now growing evidence that Libya is supporting the Russian military withdrawal from Syria, according to The War Zone (TWZ).

The TWZ reported that Russia has moved “at least some of the Russian naval assets” from the naval base at Tartus to Libya.

The development comes amid reports that Russia is trying to convince Libyan National Army (LNA) chief Khalifa Haftar to hand over Russia a port in Libyan city of Benghazi.

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Such an approach would make sense for Russia as it would compensate the loss of port in Tartus. If Russia manages to secure a port, “Libya could well provide an alternative hub for the Russian military to provide access to the Mediterranean and as a transshipment point for other Russian interests in Africa”, noted TWZ’s Thomas Newdick.

Notably, TWZ has reported that at least one Syrian Il-76 Candid cargo plane has flown repeatedly between Syria and Libya and other locations in Africa, suggesting that Russia may have been transferring equipment and personnel to these places.

Even though as Russia appears to be seeing Libya as a new hub in the region, there is no indication that Russia is vacating the two bases. For now, Russia has only thinned its presence at these bases and elsewhere in Syria and there is no indication that Syria is vacating these two bases.

Russia has been amassing influence in Libya

Even before the collapse of the Assad regime, Russia had amassed influence inside Libya over the past decade, using the war-torn country as “a gateway to its operations in Sudan, Chad, Niger, and other Sahel and Central Africa countries, eventually wielding power and influence throughout these regions”, according to Alissa Pavia of Atlantic Council.

In an article written months before the fall of Assad regime, Pavia noted that Libya’s “fragmented governance has guaranteed Russia much-needed access to air and naval military bases, especially across Cyrenaica, allowing it to coordinate its military expeditions”.

“By maintaining a strong presence in Libya, Russia is able to pursue its broader geopolitical goals, including defying the West, expanding its military reach, and securing critical resources that are essential to sustain its economy and long-term strategic aspirations,” noted Pavia in an article for Italy’s Institute for International Political Studies.