With Assad gone, Russia withdraws from Syrian military bases & changes tone for new rulers

Russia appears to be withdrawing troops and equipment from Syria, including in two prized military bases in the western part of the country, according to satellite imagery and videos that have surfaced since the fall of the Assad dynasty.

Russia runs two military bases, the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia and a naval base in Tartus, in western Syria , which had been key to not just propping Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria but also in projecting power in the Mediterranean Sea and supporting Russian military activities in West Asia and North Africa. Following the ouster of Assad, the future of the bases is uncertain.

Even as Russian state media has reported that a deal has been reached with Syrian opposition forces, there are clear signs that Russia is pulling out of Syria, including at the bases in Latakia and Tartus.

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Russian withdraws from airbase in Syria

Recent imagery of the Khmeimim airbase from satellite company Maxar (see below) shows Russia withdrawal underway at the base. The War Zone has reported that the imagery shows two Antonov An-124 Ruslan cargo planes with their ’nose’ open, suggesting that they are loading the cargo. These are the largest military transport planes in the world.

The outlet also reported that the imagery further shows three Ilyushin Il-76 cargo aircraft along with a dismantled Ka-52 attack helicopter and packed S-400 air defence system, suggesting that the S-400 and Ka-52 were being loaded for transportation.

The imagery further shows at least one Syrian Il-76 and another Yakovlev Yak-40 aircraft along with smaller An-72 Coaler and An-26 Curl transporters as well as a Su-35 fighter plane, according to the outlet.

Such an enhanced presence of heavy transport aircraft along with folded S-400 and attack helicopter suggest that Russia is in the process of considerably thinning its military presence in Syria.

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Once the opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began their offensive late last month , there were also reports of Russia withdrawing MiG-31 warplanes from the Khmeimin airbase.

Russian vessels leave port in Syria

While the picture at the Khmeimin airbase is much clearer, the situation at the Tartus naval base is a bit hard to assess.

Even before Assad fled Syria, Russian vessels had left the Tartus port .

However, recent satellite imagery reported by The War Zone suggests that even though Russian naval assets have left the port, they have not left the area and are stationed in the waters near the coast — though far from the port where they would have been sitting ducks.

Moreover, the outlet reported that some air defence systems remain at the base, suggesting that Russia does not plan to abandon the base.

Videos and reports in recent days suggest that Russia has withdrawn its forces from across Syria to house them in its bases at Latakia and Tartus.

The war monitor Syrian Observatory of Human Rights (SOHR) has reported that Russia has withdrawn forces from near Homs to regroup at the airbase in Latakia.

Videos have also emerged from Russian military bloggers that show Russian military moving away from the active warzone into the Kurdish-held Syrian territories in the northeast.

Amid such accounts, Reuters has reported sources as saying that while Russia is “pulling back its military from the frontlines in northern Syria and from posts in the Alawite Mountains”, it is not vacating the Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base.

The news agency quoted that one of the cargo planes seen at the Khmeimim airbase, mentioned above, departed for Libya.

Syrian military and security sources in contact with Russia told the agency that Russia is withdrawing some heavy equipment and senior Syrian officers from the country. They said that some of the equipment being pulled out of the country is being shipped to Russia.

Russia appears to rebrand mission in Syria

For five decades, Syrian bases had been the crown jewels of Russia’s overseas military presence. The bases were not just central to projecting power along the southern flank of the Nato but also connected the West Asia with the Ukraine front via Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea.

The bases were also central to the survival of the Assad regime. It was the Russian direct military intervention in 2015 that turned the tides of the civil war in Assad’s favour. From these bases, Russia supported Assad’s war against opposition forces, including the indiscriminate bombing of opposition-held areas and chemical attacks on own subjects.

Now, Russia appears to be rebranding its presence inside Syria as an anti-terrorist mission as opposed to countering Nato or bolstering Assad.

Earlier this week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said that Russian bases in Syria were “at the Syrians’ request with the aim of fighting terrorists from the Islamic State”. This is of course a lie as the Russian military supported Assad’s war against his subjects and Russian schemes in the region, not the war against terrorists which was largely waged by US-supported Kurds.

Bogdanov further said, “I am proceeding on the basis of the notion that everyone agrees that the fight against terrorism and what remains of Islamic State is not over. [That] requires collective efforts and in this connection our presence and the Khmeimim base played an important role in the context of the overall fight against international terrorism.”