US believes Iran planning to develop a faster, cruder nuclear weapon: Report

The new intelligence has convinced the United States that Iran is planning to develop a faster and cruder nuclear weapon, according to a report.

The development comes at a time when the United States has assessed that as Iran stands weaker than ever and its conventional deterrence stands eroded, it may resort to developing a nuclear weapon to restore deterrence . The development of the weapon would require go-ahead from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The New York Times has reported that new intelligence has led the United States to believe that a secret team of Iranian scientists is exploring a faster, cruder approach to developing a nuclear weapon that would considerably reduce the timeline if and when Khamenei gives his go-ahead.

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The report comes at a time when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington DC to meet US President Trump. Iran is expected to feature in their conversations. Over the years, Netanyahu has framed the Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat to Israel and has been said to have come close to ordering a strike on its nuclear infrastructure. In light of new intelligence and Iran’s weakness, it remains to be seen what approach Netanyahu and Trump take.

Iran working to shorten timeline of making nukes: Report

The new intelligence has convinced the United States that Iranian scientists and engineers are working on a plan to develop a nuclear weapon —although a crude one— within “months” instead of the previous timeline of between 12-18 months, according to The Times.

The new assessment was formed in the final months of the previous Joe Biden administration and was conveyed to the current Trump administration during the transition of government.

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In recent months, senior officials have said that as Iran stands weaker than ever — Iran is essentially naked as its air defences have been taken out , its allies Hamas and Hezbollah are a shadow of their former selves, Bashar al-Assad is out of power, and its missile production has also been crippled from Israeli airstrikes— it may opt for the development of nuclear weapon to restore deterrence as conventional deterrence stands eroded.

However, even with the new intelligence, US officials maintain that Khamenei has not given the go-ahead for the development of nuclear weapon, according to The Times.

Iran has enriched uranium to near weapons-grade level and can reach the weapons-grade level within days to have enough fuel to develop four or five bombs, as per the newspaper.

In December, Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor (NSA) of previous President Biden, said that there are voices in Iran that are saying that “we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine” and maybe “maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon” to restore deterrence in the region.

Sullivan further said that there is a “real risk” of Iran deciding to develop a nuclear weapon amid such a situation.

“It’s a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now. It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on. I was just in Israel consulting with the Israelis on this risk and it’s something that is the consequence not of Iranian strength, but of Iranian weakness and that’s the kind of thing that, in a dynamic and challenging Middle East American statecraft is going to have to account for,” said Sullivan in an interview with CNN.