Weakened in war with Israel, Iran may decide to build nukes, White House tells Trump

After being weakened in the conflict with Israel over the past year, Iran may decide to build a nuclear weapon, the White House has told the incoming Donald Trump administration.

Following the Hamas-led October 7 attack on Israel, Iran and its proxies have been battered in the conflict .

Hamas has been reduced to an insurgency in the Gaza Strip with its leadership neutralised. Similarly, most of Hezbollah’s leaders have been killed and its war-waging ability has been destroyed in Lebanon. In two rounds of aerial battles with Israel, Iran has also been left essentially naked as Israel has taken out its air defences. Israel has also dealt a setback to its nuclear programme. Moreover, Iran has lost strategic depth in the region with the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Amid such a situation, Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor (NSA) of outgoing President Joe Biden has told the incoming Trump administration that Iran may decide to develop nuclear weapons as it finds itself cornered in front of Israel.

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In an interview with CNN, Sullivan on Sunday (December 22) said that there are voices in Iran that are saying that “we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine” and maybe “maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon” because it stands considerably weakened and has no conventional deterrence at the moment. He said that there is a need to be “vigilant” about the threat.

Sullivan told CNN, “You’re looking around at the fact that your conventional capability has been reduced, your proxies have been reduced, your main client state has been eliminated, Assad has fallen, it’s no wonder there are voices saying, ‘hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now’.”

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Sullivan said that there is a “real risk” of Iran deciding to develop a nuclear weapon amid such a situation and he has been briefing the incoming Trump administration on the situation.

Sullivan further said, “They’re saying maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine, a doctrine that has said we’ll have a civilian nuclear programme and certain capabilities, but we’re not going for a nuke. That is a real risk. It’s a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now. It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on. I was just in Israel consulting with the Israelis on this risk and it’s something that is the consequence not of Iranian strength, but of Iranian weakness and that’s the kind of thing that, in a dynamic and challenging Middle East American statecraft is going to have to account for.”

Sullivan’s remarks come days after Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has been concerned about Iran developing a nuclear weapon on his watch and that his team has been fleshing out options to deal with the situation , ranging from harsher sanctions to pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Separately, there have been reports that the Israeli military has also drawn plans to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities .

After Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Iran ramped up the enrichment of nuclear fuel. Currently, Iran has enriched nuclear fuel to near-weapons grade level .

The New York Times has reported that, once Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gives his go-ahead, Iran can make enough weapons-grade nuclear fuel for four warheads within weeks and can then make warheads within next 12-18 months.

However, despite such an assessment, the US intelligence agencies maintain that the go-ahead from Khamenei has not yet come. In 2003, Khamenei suspended the Iranian nuclear weapons programme and even though Iran has taken steps towards resuming the programme, it has not yet resumed it, according to the US intelligence assessment.

Moreover, despite Sullivan’s remarks and the near-weapons grade enrichment of nuclear fuel, Israel has dealt Iran a setback when it comes to the ability to develop a warhead. During the airstrikes inside Iran in October, Israel destroyed a key component needed to make a warhead , said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later without giving specifics.