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Hours before meeting with US officials in Moscow this past week to discuss potential steps toward ending the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed his forces had seized the strategic city of Pokrovsk after months of fighting.
The reality on the ground, however, was less clear: parts of the city remained contested, according to battlefield maps and Ukrainian military reports. Even if premature, Putin’s claim reflected a larger pattern in his approach to negotiations: Russian forces continue to advance.
“The Russians do have the upper hand,” Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group told The New York Times (NYT). While Ukraine is not yet at the point of capitulation, he added, it “is looking weak enough that the Russians think that they can impose demands.”
Following the Moscow talks, which included President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, Russia signalled it is not easing its demands. Putin has ordered preparations for winter combat, and US officials described subsequent discussions with Ukraine’s delegation in Miami as “constructive.”
Meanwhile, Russian forces launched a large-scale attack across Ukraine, firing more than 51 missiles and deploying over 650 drones from Friday night into Saturday morning, Ukrainian officials said. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that he had a “long and substantive” phone call with Witkoff and Jared Kushner to discuss next steps for talks with the United States.
On the battlefield, Russian forces have made slow but steady gains on multiple fronts.
They are close to capturing Pokrovsk and have nearly encircled its neighbour, Myrnohrad, while advancing in Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and Siversk. According to DeepState, a Ukrainian military-affiliated monitoring group cited by NYT, Russian troops captured roughly 505 square kilometres in November, up from 267 square kilometres in October.
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View All“The future looks really, really grim for Ukraine,” said Kastehelmi. Ukraine has enough resources to maintain the front line, but the pressure is mounting. Russia’s incremental advances, combined with manpower shortages and uncertainty over Western support, are fuelling Putin’s push for concessions from Kyiv.
Pokrovsk at the heart of Russia’s offensive
Pokrovsk has become a key battleground, seen by Russian forces as a steppingstone toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Moscow is also pressing attacks on nearby towns like Kostiantynivka and Lyman. Analysts suggest Ukraine is holding Pokrovsk to challenge Russia’s narrative of inevitable victory, but the strategy comes at a heavy cost.
Meanwhile, Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia are picking up pace. In November, Moscow captured around 75 square miles near Huliaipole—nearly 40 percent of its total territorial gains that month. Drones, harsh winter conditions, and heavy firepower have slowed infantry movements, but Russia’s willingness to sustain losses points to a long-term strategy of attrition.
As the battle for Pokrovsk stretches into its 18th month, concerns are growing for neighbouring cities.
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