Turkey Presidential Election: A look at whether Tayyip Erdogan's two-decade rule will end on 14 May

Turkey will hold national elections on Sunday that look set to be the toughest test of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long political career.

After ruling the country for two decades, polls showed Erdogan neck-and-neck with rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate fielded jointly by the opposition Nation’s Alliance.

If no candidate secures more than half of the votes in the first round, a 28 May runoff will be held between the two leading candidates.

Erdogan, 69, rose to power 20 years ago as Turkey emerged from a period of rampant inflation, promising sound government after the coalition of the time was accused of mismanagement. At the height of his success, Turkey enjoyed a protracted economic boom with rising living standards for its 85 million people.

Turkey’s longest-serving leader logged more than a dozen election victories and survived an attempted coup in 2016.

Erdogan was applauded during his first decade as leader for transforming Turkey into an economic and political success story, but over the last 10 years he’s faced mounting criticism — both domestically and internationally — for quashing dissent and adopting rules and laws typical of autocratic regimes.

Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party counts the nationalist MHP as its main ally. The secularist CHP and five other parties form an opposition alliance that is expected to get support from the main Kurdish party HDP, giving it an edge in some polls.

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Only three candidates, including Erdogan, remain in the race for president after Muharrem Ince, representing a small party, withdrew.

Erdogan’s key challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu

Erdogan’s chief rival Kilicdaroglu, head of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), was named the six-party opposition alliance’s presidential candidate in March.

KiIicdaroglu is a secular social democrat politician who has emphasised messages of freedom and democracy on the campaign trail.

The opposition alliance he represents has promised to roll back constitutional changes introduced after a 2017 referendum that significantly expanded the powers of the presidency, and to bring back the parliamentary system.

A former civil servant, Kilicdaroglu entered parliament in 2002 with the CHP.

Kilicdaroglu has struck an inclusive tone as he has sought to attract voters disillusioned by Erdogan’s rhetoric and perceived economic mismanagement, promising economic prosperity as well as greater respect for human rights and rule of law.

Most challenging test for Erdogan

The presidential and parliamentary elections could be the most challenging test yet for the 69-year-old Erdogan.

Most opinion polls point to a slight lead by his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Erdogan is facing a tough test in this election because of public outrage over his handling of the 6 February earthquake in southern Turkey that killed over 50,000 people, leveled cities and left millions without homes.

His political adversaries say the government was slow to respond and that its failure to enforce building codes is to blame for the high death toll.

Some even point to government malfeasance after a 1999 earthquake in northwestern Turkey near the city of Izmit that killed about 18,000 people, saying that taxes imposed from that disaster were misspent and worsened the effects of this year’s quake.

Once a poster child for developing nations, Turkey is also currently battling high inflation and a cost-of-living crisis, both of which are regularly blamed by opponents and economists on Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies.

What works for Erdogan

Still, even with resentment directed toward Erdogan over his handling of the February quake and the economy, analysts caution against underestimating him, pointing to his enduring appeal among working- and middle-class religious voters who had long felt alienated by Turkey’s former secular and Western-leaning elites.

Erdogan’s nationalist policies, often confrontational stance against the West and moves that have raised Islam’s profile in the country continue to resonate among conservative supporters. They point to an economic boom in the first half of his rule that lifted many people out of poverty, adding that his past successes are proof of his ability to turn things around.

Many also point to major infrastructure projects begun during his tenure — highways, bridges, airports, hospitals, and low-income housing.

Erdogan himself has conceded that there were shortcomings in the early days of the February earthquake but insisted the situation was quickly brought under control.

Since then, he has focused his reelection campaign on reconstructing quake-stricken areas, promising to build 319,000 homes within the year. At rally after rally, he has touted past projects as proof that only his government can restore the region.

Erdogan has announced a series of spending measures to bring temporary relief to those hardest-hit by inflation, including raising minimum wages and pensions, enacting measures to allow some people to take early retirement, and providing assistance to consumers for electricity and natural gas.

Who’s going to win, and what happens next?

In the presidential election, recent polling has shown Kilicdaroglu marginally ahead of Erdogan by about two points. İnce’s late withdrawal is widely seen as favourable to Kilicdaroglu, increasing his chances of securing an absolute majority of votes and making a runoff in a fortnight’s time less likely – but it will be very close.

According to _The Guardian, s_ome commentators have warned that if Erdogan loses by a small margin he may refuse to stand down, as happened when the AKP lost control of Ankara and Istanbul in municipal elections that it contested, even forcing a re-run in the latter.

In the parliamentary poll, the president’s AKP is on course to emerge as the largest single party, but the opposition Nation Alliance is projected to be the largest political bloc. Many analysts warn, however, that polling in Turkey is not always exact.

Others key figures in the presidential and parliamentary elections

Sinan Ogan

Sinan Ogan, who is the third candidate in the presidential race apart from Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, has little prospect of victory. A former academic who established the think tank TURKSAM, he entered parliament in 2011 with the far-right MHP.

He launched an unsuccessful bid for leadership of the MHP in 2015 and was subsequently expelled from the party.

ERDOGAN ALLIES

MHP leader Devlet Bahceli

Ultranationalist leader Devlet Bahceli, 75, has helped Erdogan keep his grip on power after supporting his bid to switch to an executive presidency in a 2017 referendum.

Previously a staunch opponent of Erdogan, Bahceli’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) began to work with the president and his AKP after a 2016 attempted coup.

A hatred of the PKK and a hardline stance against pro-Kurdish parties is a key part of Bahceli’s discourse.

OPPOSITION FIGURES:

IYI party leader Meral Aksener

Former interior minister Meral Aksener, 66, leads the second-largest party in the opposition alliance, the centrist and nationalist IYI Party. She has risen to greater prominence since 2016, when she was expelled from the MHP after mounting an unsuccessful bid to oust Bahceli.

She appeals to conservative voters and those disenchanted with the MHP’s alliance with the AKP.

Former HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas

Former leader of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) Selahattin Demirtas, 49, remains a key political figure despite being in jail since 2016. Demirtas faces a potential life sentence in a case in which he has been charged with instigating 2014 protests in which dozens died.

HDP, which announced it will support Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, will run under the Green Left Party in the parliamentary vote to circumvent its potential closure ahead of elections.

Deva Party leader Ali Babacan

Babacan, 55, is an ex-deputy prime minister and former close ally of Erdogan who quit the AKP in 2019 over differences about its direction. He formed the Deva (Remedy) Party and urged reforms to boost the rule of law and democracy. A former economy and foreign minister, he was well regarded by foreign investors.

Future Party leader Ahmet Davutoglu

Davutoglu, 64, a former prime minister and foreign minister, broke with the AKP in 2019 and established the Gelecek (Future) Party. In the first decade of AKP rule he championed a less confrontational foreign policy with the mantra “zero problems with neighbours”, and has since criticised what he describes as a lurch towards authoritarianism under the executive presidency.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu

After five years as CHP mayor of an Istanbul district, former businessman Ekrem Imamoglu, 52, rose to prominence in 2019 when he defeated the AKP’s candidate in the Istanbul municipal election. He was sentenced to more than two years in prison in 2022 for insulting public officials and faces a political ban if the ruling is upheld.

Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas

Nationalist politician and lawyer Mansur Yavas, 67, defeated the AKP’s Ankara mayoral candidate 2019 as the CHP candidate backed by an opposition alliance. He served for 10 years as the nationalist MHP mayor of an Ankara district until 2009. He left the MHP and joined CHP in 2013.

With inputs from agencies

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