Soledar capture will bring Russia nothing significant, says US think tank

New Delhi: The likely victory of Russian forces in the Ukrainian town of Soledar, touted however significant by Russia, would not have much bearing on the fight on the ground, the Institute for the Study of War has said.

On Wednesday the chief of the Russian mercenary group Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that his forces have taken over Soledar, a salt-mining town in Eastern Ukraine. However, the Russian defence ministry said that the take-over was not yet complete, and Ukraine denied any success for the Russian forces.

On Friday, Ukraine reaffirmed that it was resisting a “high intensity” Russian offensive in Soledar, a nearly destroyed town in the eastern Donetsk region that is now the epicentre of the war.

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The 12 January ISW report acknowledged that Russian forces have managed gains on the ground in Soledar and pushed back Ukrainian forces.

“Geolocated footage posted on January 11 and 12 indicates that Russian forces likely control most if not all of Soledar, and have likely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the settlement”, the report said.

Ukrainian General Staff usually reported the Russian attacks in Soledar before 12 January. But on 12 January they only reported repelling Russian attacks against Sil in Donetsk Oblast —a settlement over a kilometre northwest of Soledar, not the town.

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Russian forces were still clearing Soledar of remaining Ukrainian forces as of 12 January, the ISW report mentioned Russian sources as saying.

Whatever the little details, Russian forces have likely taken over Soledar anyway.

“All available evidence indicates Ukrainian forces no longer maintain an organized defence in Soledar”, the report said.

But, Soledar is not the victory Russia would have everyone believes.

Not worth the price

Russia has touted Soledar as an important town on its road to the strategic city of Bakmut (which is just 10 km from Soledar), but the importance of the town stops just there.

Bakhmut is in the Russian crosshairs since the summer of 2022. Ever since an intense battle has raged over the city, which could open the doors for Russia to get into other important industrial cities of the resource-rich Donetsk region.

Soledar, as a milestone, would have been an important victory for Russians had it allowed them to control the Ukrainian communication lines to Bakhmut. But it doesn’t.

Similarly, it doesn’t even give the Russian forces any advantage to encircle the city of Bakhmut.

However, on the contrary, victory over Soledar can work against Russians in the final assault on Bakhmut.

The fighting in Soledar has been intense and it demanded the Russian forces commit significant resources to prevail over Ukrainians. It has exhausted and degraded Russian forces, making them more less likely to score a comfortable success in Bakhmut, should they press on to the city.

“Russian forces may decide to maintain a consistently high pace of assaults in the Bakhmut area, but Russian forces’ degraded combat power and cumulative exhaustion will prevent these assaults from producing operationally significant results”, the ISW report said.

Given the cost of it and the opportunities it throws open for Russian forces, Soledar is no more than a Pyrrhic victory.

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