Russia likely deploying nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles in Belarus, boosting strike reach across Europe: Report

Amid intense fighting on the Ukraine front, Russia is likely deploying new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a move that could significantly strengthen Moscow’s ability to strike targets across Europe, Reuters reported. The assessment is based on satellite imagery analysed by two US researchers.

The findings broadly align with US intelligence conclusions, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to discuss the information publicly.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has earlier stated his intention to deploy intermediate-range Oreshnik missiles in Belarus. The missiles are estimated to have a range of up to 3,400 miles (5,500 km), though the exact location had not been disclosed until now.

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Experts said such a deployment would highlight the Kremlin’s growing reliance on nuclear signalling as it seeks to deter NATO countries from supplying Ukraine with weapons capable of striking deep inside Russian territory.

Revised Russian strategy

The researchers, Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California and Decker Eveleth of the CNA research organisation in Virginia, said their conclusions were based on Planet Labs satellite imagery showing features consistent with a Russian strategic missile base.

They said they were 90 percent certain that mobile Oreshnik launchers would be stationed at the former airbase near Krichev, about 190 miles (307 km) east of Minsk and 300 miles (478 km) south-west of Moscow.

Russia tested a conventionally armed Oreshnik missile against a target in Ukraine in November 2024. Putin has claimed the missile is impossible to intercept, citing reported speeds exceeding Mach 10.

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Wider geopolitical context

John Foreman, a Chatham House expert and former British defence attaché in Moscow and Kyiv, said the deployment would extend Russia’s strike capability deeper into Europe. He added that the move also appeared to be a response to the planned deployment next year of US conventional missiles in Germany, including the intermediate-range hypersonic Dark Eagle.

The timing is significant, with the deployment expected just weeks before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement limiting strategic nuclear weapons between the US and Russia.

After a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in December 2024, Putin said the Oreshnik could be stationed in Belarus in the second half of this year. This would mark Russia’s first deployment of nuclear weapons outside its own territory since the Cold War.

Lukashenko said last week that the first missiles had already been deployed, without disclosing their location. He added that up to 10 Oreshnik missiles could be based in Belarus, although the US researchers said the site near Krichev could accommodate only three launchers, with others likely stationed elsewhere.

Ukraine war and Western weapons

US President Donald Trump is working to reach a deal with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Kyiv has repeatedly urged its Western allies to provide long-range weapons capable of striking inside Russia.

Trump has so far rejected Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk cruise missiles, which can reach Moscow. Britain and France have supplied cruise missiles, while Germany announced in May that it would co-produce long-range missiles with Ukraine without limits on their range or targeting.

Hurried construction at suspected base

The researchers said Planet Labs imagery showed hurried construction at the suspected site beginning between August 4 and 12, with features typical of a Russian strategic missile base.

Eveleth pointed to a November 19 image showing a “military-grade rail transfer point” enclosed by a security fence, allowing missiles, launchers and other components to be delivered by train. Lewis highlighted a concrete pad poured at the end of the runway and later covered with earth, which he said was consistent with a camouflaged launch point.

Experts divided on impact

Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based expert on Russia’s nuclear forces, said he was sceptical that deploying the Oreshnik in Belarus would give Moscow any real military or political advantage beyond reassuring Belarus of Russian protection.

“I don’t see how this would be viewed in the West as fundamentally different from these missiles being deployed in Russia,” he said.

Lewis, however, argued that the move sends a clear political message about Russia’s growing reliance on nuclear weapons.

“Can you imagine if we placed a nuclear-armed Tomahawk cruise missile in Germany instead of a conventional one?” he said. “There is no military reason to put this system in Belarus, only political ones.”