Why Myanmar is holding elections despite being in a civil war

Myanmar’s military-led administration will hold a multi-phased general election starting on Sunday, even as a civil war rages across large parts of the Southeast Asian country.

Why is Myanmar holding an election?

The military ousted the elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in a February 2021 coup, just as it was preparing for its second term in office following a landslide election win months earlier.

The generals accused Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party of electoral fraud, which she rejected. International election monitors reported no irregularities. Suu Kyi and much of the NLD were detained along with thousands of junta opponents.

The junta pledged to hold an election by August 2023 and restore a democratic system but that was pushed back as the military lost control of swathes of the country in its battles with ethnic minority rebels and anti-junta militias.

The NLD was among dozens of parties dissolved for failing to register.

Most analysts see the election as a way for the military, which has governed Myanmar for much of the past six decades, to entrench its rule via proxies in the absence of a viable political opposition, and earn legitimacy at home and abroad.

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How will the election be held?

Voting will be held in phases, on December 28 in 102 townships, and on January 11 in 100 townships, and on January 25 in 63 townships, covering a total of 265 townships out of a total of 330.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has acknowledged polls will not be nationwide.

Dates for counting and results have not been publicised. The military-backed election commission has said its more than 50,000 electronic voting machines will speed up counting.

Seats will be determined by a combination of first-past-the-post, proportional representation and mixed-member proportional systems, the commission has said. Previous elections used a plurality system where candidates with the most votes won seats.

In line with an army-drafted 2008 constitution, 25 per cent of upper and lower house seats are reserved for serving military personnel selected by the armed forces chief.

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Who is taking part?

Only six parties are competing on a national level, with 51 contesting within a single region or state. Many parties that ran in the past two elections have been disbanded and anti-junta rebels have refused to take part.

That has left in the fray only junta-approved parties, including the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party, which won the last election held by a junta in 2010. The USDP is fielding 1,018 candidates, a fifth of the total registered.

The USDP, led by former generals, was routed by the NLD in landslides in 2015 and 2020 elections, the latter annulled after the coup.

As in 2010, with the armed forces controlling 25 per cent of the legislature and its USDP allies expected to win a large number of seats, the military will have power to influence who becomes president, the formation of a government, plus judicial and civil service appointments.

How will a president be chosen?

According to the constitution, parliament must convene within 90 days of the start of the election. Speakers will be elected and at a later date, a president.

To choose a president, three electoral colleges are formed, comprising members of the upper and lower houses, who each nominate one candidate for president. Two of the colleges are elected lawmakers, while the third is exclusively comprised of military-appointed lawmakers.

A plenary vote of the bicameral legislature will be held and the candidate with the most votes becomes president, with the runners-up as vice presidents. A cabinet will then be appointed by the president.

What is the international reaction?

The United Nations, many Western countries and human rights groups say the election is a sham exercise aimed at perpetuating military rule.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc, of which Myanmar is a member, has called for a fair and inclusive election and may find it difficult to re-engage even after the polls.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, however, has made a major diplomatic push this year to win support for the polls, including two trips each to key allies China and Russia, which are backing the election, as is India, according to state media.

The military has rejected international criticism, saying the election was not being conducted through coercion or force and has public support.

“The election is being conducted for the people of Myanmar, not for the international community,” junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun said on December 14.

“Whether the international community is satisfied or not, is irrelevant.”