Putin begins his two-day India visit today: How New Delhi will balance tested ties with US and Russia

As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares for his two-day visit to India, New Delhi is looking to strike a balance between Washington and Moscow amid a turbulent world order. On Thursday, the Russian leader will be met with the pomp and ceremony reserved for one of India’s most steadfast partners.

At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government are also attempting to maintain a deep strategic relationship with Russia’s key global rival: the United States. On the one side, India will be eying the potential of advanced Russian fighter jets, cheap oil, and bolstering an ironclad friendship forged in the Cold War. On the other hand, American collaboration on technology, trade and investment – and the hope President Donald Trump will lift his punishing tariffs.

It is pertinent to note that this is Putin’s first trip to India since the start of the war in Ukraine. It is also coming at a time when New Delhi is negotiating a much-needed trade deal with Washington, after it was slapped with a whopping 50 per cent tariffs, half of which was imposed due to India's purchase of Russian oil amid the war.

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In the midst of all this, India recently made a gesture to Washington, cutting its purchases of Russian oil and agreeing to buy 2.2 million metric tons of liquified petroleum gas from the US. Meanwhile, Putin’s visit is expected to focus more on defence deals with Moscow. This underscores how India plans to navigate between two superpowers.

Putin’s visit: India eyes to bolster defence ties with Russia

While India’s procurement of Russian weapons has dropped considerably since the last four years, Moscow continues to remain its top military supplier, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a think tank that tracks global arms sales.

It is pertinent to note that a lot of this Russian hardware is purchased with an eye on India’s rival China, which has emerged as one of Moscow’s closest partners in recent years, but with whom India has longstanding border tensions. Beijing, on the other hand, is also a major arms supplier to India’s arch-rival Pakistan, with some of the Chinese weapons used against India during the 4-day military escalation between the two nations.

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Su-57 fighter jets, labour and civil nuclear cooperation… Deals likely to be cracked during Putin’s India visit

The talks between Russia and India during Putin’s visit will likely cover a potential arms deal for its most advanced fighter, the Su-57, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday. However, energy trade would also find a significant space in bilateral talks.

When Western sanctions over the 2022 invasion of Ukraine caused the price of Russian oil to plummet, India ramped up its purchase of Russian crude, becoming one of the Kremlin’s top buyers. However, the move miffed Washington, especially with the return of US President Donald Trump to the White House.

In August, Trump’s patience wore thin, and he imposed 50 per cent tariffs on India as punishment for its trade deficit with Washington, but also its purchases of Russian oil. Not only this, in October, Trump announced sanctions on two of Russia’s largest oil companies, sending immediate ripples through offices in India. Hence, India will attempt to balance both sides in this regard.

Trade talks with the US

Putin’s visit is coming at a time when India and the US recently agreed to a new 10-year framework aimed at deepening industrial collaboration, technology, and intelligence sharing. At the same time, New Delhi is also negotiating the contours of a trade deal with Washington, a deal its Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal expects to be finalised by the end of this year, CNN reported.

While the deal does not make Russia anxious, Putin’s visit will be under scrutiny from Washington, particularly with major defence contracts on the table. In the past, top aides within the Trump cabinet have accused India of benefiting from the war, with Trump’s Trade Representative, Peter Navarro, going ahead and referring to the Russia-Ukraine war as “ Modi War”.

Hence, India will have to ensure that the recent Putin visit does not affect the ongoing talks about a trade deal.