No winners in case of Taiwan invasion as China, US, Japan will suffer huge losses, finds AI war simulation

Taipei: The ominous threat of a Chinese invasion hovers permanently over the island nation of Taiwan. But if a report by Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is to be believed, an actual war will bring about staggering losses in men and materials for China as well as Taiwan and its allies US and Japan.

The CSIS study, which was based on AI simulation of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, was released earlier this week. It found that the combined forces of Taiwan, US and Japan will be able to defeat an invasion by China but the sheer volume of potential casualties and economic losses will prove to be extremely difficult to sustain for all parties concerned.

Even in its most optimistic assesment, the CSIS report projects an extremely grim and forbidding picture of the outcome of a possible war across the Taiwan Strait.

The report has predicted that the combined forces of the US and Japan will lose 449 aircraft and 43 ships, including two aircraft carriers. The manpower losses of the US military has been predicted at 6,960 personnel with 3,200 killed in action.

The projection for Taiwan states that the island nation will probably lose half its air force, 22 ships and 3,500 soldiers, with a third of that number killed in action.

For China, the report paints an even scarier picture, stating that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will lose 138 ships, 155 aircraft and 52,000 soldiers. China’s manpower losses have been predicted to include 7,000 battle casualties, with a third of that number killed in action, 15,000 troops lost at sea with half assumed killed, and 30,000 prisoners of war (POW) from landing force survivors on Taiwan.

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According to the CSIS report, four critical assumptions will have to come about in reality if the allied forces are to be successful in defending the island from an invasion by China.

First, the defending forces must be able to hold the line against the beachhead by the invading Chinese forces and
launch counterattacks.

Second, the combined forces of the US, Japan and other allies must be prepared to combat a possible blockade of Taiwan by China.

Third, the US must be able to sustain its bases in Japan. These may prove to be critical for the success for US military operations in Taiwan.

Fourth, the US and its allies must be able to hit Chinese warships from outside China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) bubble.

The CSIS report also sounded a note of caution, warning that since the US may sustain more losses than China in a prolonged conflict, the possibility of a Pyrrhic victory by the US may undermine deterrence of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

It added that if China senses that the US is unwilling to sustain such heavy losses to defend Taiwan, it may venture to risk an invasion of the democratic island nation it regards as a rebel breakaway province.

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