With ‘G-2’, Trump elevates Xi as equal, carves spheres of influence with China

For decades, China competed with the United States to become America’s peer superpower. That quest ended in what many analysts called a victory for China last week as US President Donald Trump announced the formation of the ‘Group of 2’ (G-2) with Xi Jinping — elevating the Chinese leader as his equal.

Trump critics interpreted his Asia tour that he concluded in s kipping the high-stake Apec summit in South Korea as the US president’s acceptance of defeat in the trade-geostrategy war to make peace on Xi’s terms. Trump and his administration have a contrasting view as the US president later claimed in a TV interview.

Sriparna Pathak, a professor of Chinese studies at Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA), OP Jindal Global University says Trump played every card he had from tariffs and trade barriers to export controls but eventually decided to shake hands with China “because he realised Xi had won” the battle.

Pathak tells Firstpost, “With G-2’s announcement, Trump gave away his conclusion that he had lost to Xi. He also gave away his worldview of carving out spheres of influence with adversaries instead of competing to win. For him, if you cannot bend China, you accept its terms and carve out a consolation prize for yourself.”

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At the summit in South Korea, Trump secured access to China’s rare earth metals and magnets but also softened his stand on several contentious issues — the Russia-Ukraine war, Taiwan, and technology export controls. Both sides claimed to have secured edge in the Trump-Xi deal, but the critics of the former saw it as a consolation prize for the US president with the Chinese walking away with a trophy, more so as he dominated the Apec stage for setting a favourable narrative unchallenged.

For Trump’s supporters, he emerged as a master dealmaker who secured access to rare earths. For his critics, he signed an appeasement agreement — the kind British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain signed with Nazi tyrant Adolf Hitler in 1938. And history has shown that appeasement does not work.

Trump formalises spheres of influence with G-2

In his second term, Trump has made it clear that he believes in carving out spheres of influence instead of competing for global leadership. The G-2 is merely the formal announcement of that pursuit.

Ostensibly, under the G-2, Trump and Xi would work together as the world’s two superpowers to address major global challenges and prevent a spiralling rivalry that could threaten global stability. In reality, it would mean Trump and Xi carving out the world into spheres and running those spheres as their fiefdoms.

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In the Indo-Pacific, Trump apparently handed Xi a free rein. In their discussion in South Korea, Trump said Taiwan did not feature at all . However, Trump on Sunday warned China against any plan to invade Taiwan, saying Xi “knows the consequences” of such a move.

Trump has turned Quad into an afterthought — the fulcrum of countering Chinese hegemonic designs that late Japanese premier Shinzo Abe, former US President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi championed. He has also endorsed the Russia–China alliance by giving a clean chit to Russia’s trade with China, including the purchase of oil. Trump said Russian oil purchase didn’t feature in talks with Xi. As previously reported, China is the economic lifeline that has sustained the Russian war on Ukraine.

Previously, Trump attempted to do the same with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Europe. He essentially declared that Nato did not belong in eastern Europe — recognising it as Putin’s sphere of influence. His commitment to Nato has been shaky at best and hollow at worst.

In return, Trump has claimed the Western hemisphere for himself. There, he has announced the intent to annex Denmark’s Greenland island, annex the nation of Canada, and annex the Panama Canal. In international waters, he has been blowing up boats and killing people without bothering to furnish any evidence.

However, as many leaders, including Finland’s President Alexander Stubb in an interview with Firstpost’s Managing Editor Palki Sharma, noted that Trump has stopped making those annexation references in recent weeks.

The rotating Trump pivot in Asia

With Trump joining Xi instead of standing up to him, Asian countries have lost a key partner in addressing the Chinese challenge.

Pathak, a Chinese studies professor at JSIA, says countries such as India face a dual challenge as they must prepare for the Chinese threat while improving relations to minimise the risk of confrontation at a time when international support is uncertain.

“There is a power differential between India and China, so India will not seek an escalation. India will seek to lower tensions. At the same time, India has been working on capacity-building as part of a long game. But, for the next four years, India cannot count on any American support, so that will shape the approach to China. Similarly, Japan, Australia, and South Korea cannot be assured of such support as well,” says Pathak.

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But Quad is unlikely to be over, says Pathak, adding that the grouping is likely to evolve.

“Quad’s exercises are going on so that suggests the group will stay, but its scale and relevance will take a hit. Instead, we will likely see a much deeper engagement between India, Australia, and Japan. In America’s absence, the rest of the countries will have to stand up,” says Pathak.

Amid many unknowns, one clear thing is that the rules have disappeared from the world order, says Pathak.

But new rules are yet to be written and India has to somehow navigate these waters, says Pathak.

As for Trump’s effect on India, Pathak says the damage since January has been institutional, and the impact can remain for a long time.

“The US approach to India currently is institutional. Everything from tariffs to the tilt to China is an institutional shift, not just Trump’s personal whims that could be downplayed. For the next three years or so, the relationship is likely to remain distrustful. The next administration will have a huge challenge to restore trust. But concerns in India are that the damage might become too institutional to be reversed with the change of guard,” says Pathak.

But predictability is not the word a Trump analyst associates with the incumbent White House leader. And as he keeps repeating, “I am a big fan of India… PM Modi is a great friend of mine” — no one knows when the next Trump pivot may be set in motion.